Ethics of Artificial Intelligence Demarcations

In this paper we present a set of key demarcations, particularly important when discussing ethical and societal issues of current AI research and applications. Properly distinguishing issues and concerns related to Artificial General Intelligence and weak AI, between symbolic and connectionist AI, AI methods, data and applications are prerequisites for an informed debate. Such demarcations would not only facilitate much-needed discussions on ethics on current AI technologies and research. In addition sufficiently establishing such demarcations would also enhance knowledge-sharing and support rigor in interdisciplinary research between technical and social sciences.Comment: Proceedings of the Norwegian AI Symposium 2019 (NAIS 2019), Trondheim, Norwa

LR characterization of chirotopes of finite planar families of pairwise disjoint convex bodies

We extend the classical LR characterization of chirotopes of finite planar families of points to chirotopes of finite planar families of pairwise disjoint convex bodies: a map \c{hi} on the set of 3-subsets of a finite set I is a chirotope of finite planar families of pairwise disjoint convex bodies if and only if for every 3-, 4-, and 5-subset J of I the restriction of \c{hi} to the set of 3-subsets of J is a chirotope of finite planar families of pairwise disjoint convex bodies. Our main tool is the polarity map, i.e., the map that assigns to a convex body the set of lines missing its interior, from which we derive the key notion of arrangements of double pseudolines, introduced for the first time in this paper.Comment: 100 pages, 73 figures; accepted manuscript versio

Interpretation of evidence in data by untrained medical students: a scenario-based study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To determine which approach to assessment of evidence in data - statistical tests or likelihood ratios - comes closest to the interpretation of evidence by untrained medical students.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Empirical study of medical students (N = 842), untrained in statistical inference or in the interpretation of diagnostic tests. They were asked to interpret a hypothetical diagnostic test, presented in four versions that differed in the distributions of test scores in diseased and non-diseased populations. Each student received only one version. The intuitive application of the statistical test approach would lead to rejecting the null hypothesis of no disease in version A, and to accepting the null in version B. Application of the likelihood ratio approach led to opposite conclusions - against the disease in A, and in favour of disease in B. Version C tested the importance of the p-value (A: 0.04 versus C: 0.08) and version D the importance of the likelihood ratio (C: 1/4 versus D: 1/8).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In version A, 7.5% concluded that the result was in favour of disease (compatible with p value), 43.6% ruled against the disease (compatible with likelihood ratio), and 48.9% were undecided. In version B, 69.0% were in favour of disease (compatible with likelihood ratio), 4.5% against (compatible with p value), and 26.5% undecided. Increasing the p value from 0.04 to 0.08 did not change the results. The change in the likelihood ratio from 1/4 to 1/8 increased the proportion of non-committed responses.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Most untrained medical students appear to interpret evidence from data in a manner that is compatible with the use of likelihood ratios.</p

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system

Bias magnification in ecologic studies: a methodological investigation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As ecologic studies are often inexpensive to conduct, consideration of the magnitude and direction of ecologic biases may be useful in both study design and sensitivity analysis of results. This paper examines three types of ecologic bias: confounding by group, effect measure modification by group, and non-differential exposure misclassification.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Bias of the risk difference on the individual and ecologic levels are compared using two-by-two tables, simple equations, and risk diagrams. Risk diagrams provide a convenient way to simultaneously display information from both levels.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Confounding by group and effect measure modification by group act in the same direction on the individual and group levels, but have larger impact on the latter. The reduction in exposure variance caused by aggregation magnifies the individual level bias due to ignoring groups. For some studies, the magnification factor can be calculated from the ecologic data alone. Small magnification factors indicate little bias beyond that occurring at the individual level. Aggregation is also responsible for the different impacts of non-differential exposure misclassification on individual and ecologic studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The analytical tools developed here are useful in analyzing ecologic bias. The concept of bias magnification may be helpful in designing ecologic studies and performing sensitivity analysis of their results.</p

An RBP4 promoter polymorphism increases risk of type 2 diabetes

Aims/hypothesis: Retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4), originally known for retinol transport, was recently identified as an adipokine affecting insulin resistance. The RBP4 -803GA promoter polymorphism influences binding of hepatic nuclear factor 1α and is associated with type 2 diabetes in case-control studies. We hypothesised that the RBP4 -803GA polymorphism increases type 2 diabetes risk at a population-based level. In addition, information on retinol intake and plasma vitamin A levels enabled us to explore the possible underlying mechanism. Methods: In the Rotterdam Study, a prospective, population-based, follow-up study, the -803GA polymorphism was genotyped. In Cox proportional hazards models, associations of the -803GA polymorphism and retinol intake with type 2 diabetes risk were examined. Moreover, the interaction of the polymorphism with retinol intake on type 2 diabetes risk was assessed. In a subgroup of participants the association of the polymorphism and vitamin A plasma levels was investigated. Results: Homozygous carriers of the -803A allele had increased risk of type 2 diabetes (HR 1.83; 95% CI 1.26-2.66). Retinol intake was not associated with type 2 diabetes risk and showed no interaction with the RBP4 -803GA polymorphism. Furthermore, there was no significant association of the polymorphism with plasma vitamin A levels. Conclusions/interpretation: Our results provide evidence that homozygosity for the RBP4 -803A allele is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes in the Rotterdam population. This relationship was not clearly explained by retinol intake and vitamin A plasma levels. Therefore, we cannot differentiate between a retinol-dependent or -independent mechanism of this RBP4 variant

Shaping speckles: spatio-temporal focussing of an ultrafast pulse through a multiply scattering medium

The multiple scattering of coherent light is a problem of both fundamental and applied importance. In optics, phase conjugation allows spatial focussing and imaging through a multiply scattering medium; however, temporal control is nonetheless elusive, and multiple scattering remains a challenge for femtosecond science. Here, we report on the spatially and temporally resolved measurement of a speckle field produced by the propagation of an ultrafast optical pulse through a thick strongly scattering medium. Using spectral pulse shaping, we demonstrate the spatially localized temporal recompression of the output speckle to the Fourier-limit duration, offering an optical analogue to time-reversal experiments in the acoustic regime. This approach shows that a multiply scattering medium can be put to profit for light manipulation at the femtosecond scale, and has a diverse range of potential applications that includes quantum control, biological imaging and photonics.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, published in Nature Communication

In vivo tissue uptake of intravenously injected water soluble all-trans β-carotene used as a food colorant

Water soluble β-carotene (WS-BC) is a carotenoid form that has been developed as a food colorant. WS-BC is known to contain 10% of all-trans β-carotene (AT-BC). The aim of the present study was to investigate in vivo tissue uptake of AT-BC after the administration of WS-BC into rats. Seven-week-old male rats were administered 20 mg of WS-BC dissolved in saline by intravenous injection into the tail vein. At 0, 6, 24, 72, 120 and 168 hours (n = 7/time), blood was drawn and liver, lungs, adrenal glands, kidneys and testes were dissected. The levels of AT-BC in the plasma and dissected tissues were quantified with HPLC. After intravenous administration, AT-BC level in plasma first increased up to 6 h and returned to normal at 72 h. In the testes, the AT-BC level first increased up to 24 h and then did not decrease but was retained up to 168 h. In the other tissues, the level first increased up to 6 h and then decreased from 6 to 120 or 168 h but did not return to normal. The accumulation of WS-BC in testes but not in the other 5 tissues examined may suggest that AT-BC was excreted or metabolized in these tissues but not in testes. Although WS-BC is commonly used as a food colorant, its effects on body tissues are still not clarified. Results of the present study suggest that further investigations are required to elucidate effects of WS-BC on various body tissues