Periodic cometary showers: Real or imaginary?

Since the initial reports in 1980, a considerable body of chemical and physical evidence has been accumulated to indicate that a major impact event occurred on earth 65 million years ago. The effects of this event were global in extent and have been suggested as the cause of the sudden demise or mass extinction of a large percentage of life, including the dinosaurs, at the end of the geologic time period known as the Cretaceous. Recent statistical analyses of extinctions in the marine faunal record for the last 250 million years have suggested that mass extinctions may occur with a periodicity of every 26 to 30 million years. Following these results, other workers have attempted to demonstrate that these extinction events, like that at the end of the Cretaceous, are temporally correlated with large impact events. A recent scenario suggests that they are the result of periodic showers of comets produced by either the passage of the solar system through the galactic plane or by perturbations of the cometary cloud in the outer solar system by a, as yet unseen, solar companion. This hypothesized solar companion has been given the name Nemesis

Pharmacological thromboprophylaxis to prevent venous thromboembolism in patients with temporary lower limb immobilization after injury : systematic review and network meta‐analysis

Background Thromboprophylaxis has the potential to reduce venous thromboembolism (VTE) following lower limb immobilization due to injury. Objectives We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of thromboprophylaxis, compare different agents and identify any factors associated with effectiveness. Methods We undertook a systematic review and network meta‐analysis (NMA) of randomised trials reporting VTE or bleeding outcomes that compared thromboprophylactic agents to each other or to no pharmacological prophylaxis, for this indication. An NMA was undertaken for each outcome or agent used, and a series of study level network meta‐regressions examined whether population characteristics, type of injury, treatment of injury or duration of thromboprophylaxis were associated with treatment effect. Results Data from 6857 participants across 13 randomised trials showed that, compared to no treatment, low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) reduced the risk of any VTE (OR 0.52; 95% CrI 0.37, 0.71), clinically detected deep vein thrombosis (DVT) (OR 0.39; 95% CrI 0.12, 0.94) and pulmonary embolism (PE) (OR 0.16; 95% CrI 0.01, 0.74), while fondaparinux reduced the risk of any VTE (OR 0.13; 95% CrI 0.05, 0.30) and clinically detected DVT (OR 0.10; 95% CrI 0.01, 0.86), with inconclusive results for PE (OR 0.40; 95% CrI 0.01, 7.53). Conclusions Thromboprophylaxis with either fondaparinux or LMWH appears to reduce the odds of both asymptomatic and clinically detected VTE in people with temporary lower limb immobilization following an injury. Treatment effects vary by outcome and are not always conclusive. We were unable to identify any treatment effect modifiers other than thromboprophylactic agent used

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Effectiveness and cost effectiveness of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis for medical inpatients: decision analysis modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the balance of costs, risks, and benefits for different thromboprophylaxis strategies for medical patients during hospital admission. DESIGN: Decision analysis modelling study. SETTING: NHS hospitals in England. POPULATION: Eligible adult medical inpatients, excluding patients in critical care and pregnant women. INTERVENTIONS: Pharmacological thromboprophylaxis (low molecular weight heparin) for all medical inpatients, thromboprophylaxis for none, and thromboprophylaxis given to higher risk inpatients according to risk assessment models (Padua, Caprini, IMPROVE, Intermountain, Kucher, Geneva, and Rothberg) previously validated in medical cohorts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs were assessed from the perspective of the NHS and Personal Social Services in England. Other outcomes assessed were incidence and treatment of venous thromboembolism, major bleeds including intracranial haemorrhage, chronic thromboembolic complications, and overall survival. RESULTS: Offering thromboprophylaxis to all medical inpatients had a high probability (>99%) of being the most cost effective strategy (at a threshold of £20 000 (€23 440; $25 270) per QALY) in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, when applying performance data from the Padua risk assessment model, which was typical of that observed across several risk assessment models in a medical inpatient cohort. Thromboprophylaxis for all medical inpatients was estimated to result in 0.0552 additional QALYs (95% credible interval 0.0209 to 0.1111) while generating cost savings of £28.44 (-£47 to £105) compared with thromboprophylaxis for none. No other risk assessment model was more cost effective than thromboprophylaxis for all medical inpatients when assessed in deterministic analysis. Risk based thromboprophylaxis was found to have a high (76.6%) probability of being the most cost effective strategy only when assuming a risk assessment model with very high sensitivity is available (sensitivity 99.9% and specificity 23.7% v base case sensitivity 49.3% and specificity 73.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Offering pharmacological thromboprophylaxis to all eligible medical inpatients appears to be the most cost effective strategy. To be cost effective, any risk assessment model would need to have a very high sensitivity resulting in widespread thromboprophylaxis in all patients except those at the very lowest risk, who could potentially avoid prophylactic anticoagulation during their hospital stay

Different strategies for pharmacological thromboprophylaxis for lower-limb immobilisation after injury: systematic review and economic evaluation

Background Thromboprophylaxis can reduce the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) during lower-limb immobilisation, but it is unclear whether or not this translates into meaningful health benefit, justifies the risk of bleeding or is cost-effective. Risk assessment models (RAMs) could select higher-risk individuals for thromboprophylaxis. Objectives To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different strategies for providing thromboprophylaxis to people with lower-limb immobilisation caused by injury and to identify priorities for future research. Data sources Ten electronic databases and research registers (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Review of Effects, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Health Technology Assessment database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Science Citation Index Expanded, ClinicalTrials.gov and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform) were searched from inception to May 2017, and this was supplemented by hand-searching reference lists and contacting experts in the field. Review methods Systematic reviews were undertaken to determine the effectiveness of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis in lower-limb immobilisation and to identify any study of risk factors or RAMs for VTE in lower-limb immobilisation. Study quality was assessed using appropriate tools. A network meta-analysis was undertaken for each outcome in the effectiveness review and the results of risk-prediction studies were presented descriptively. A modified Delphi survey was undertaken to identify risk predictors supported by expert consensus. Decision-analytic modelling was used to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of different thromboprophylaxis strategies from the perspectives of the NHS and Personal Social Services. Results Data from 6857 participants across 13 trials were included in the meta-analysis. Thromboprophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin reduced the risk of any VTE [odds ratio (OR) 0.52, 95% credible interval (CrI) 0.37 to 0.71], clinically detected deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) (OR 0.40, 95% CrI 0.12 to 0.99) and pulmonary embolism (PE) (OR 0.17, 95% CrI 0.01 to 0.88). Thromboprophylaxis with fondaparinux (Arixtra®, Aspen Pharma Trading Ltd, Dublin, Ireland) reduced the risk of any VTE (OR 0.13, 95% CrI 0.05 to 0.30) and clinically detected DVT (OR 0.10, 95% CrI 0.01 to 0.94), but the effect on PE was inconclusive (OR 0.47, 95% CrI 0.01 to 9.54). Estimates of the risk of major bleeding with thromboprophylaxis were inconclusive owing to the small numbers of events. Fifteen studies of risk factors were identified, but only age (ORs 1.05 to 3.48), and injury type were consistently associated with VTE. Six studies of RAMs were identified, but only two reported prognostic accuracy data for VTE, based on small numbers of patients. Expert consensus was achieved for 13 risk predictors in lower-limb immobilisation due to injury. Modelling showed that thromboprophylaxis for all is effective (0.015 QALY gain, 95% CrI 0.004 to 0.029 QALYs) with a cost-effectiveness of £13,524 per QALY, compared with thromboprophylaxis for none. If risk-based strategies are included, it is potentially more cost-effective to limit thromboprophylaxis to patients with a Leiden thrombosis risk in plaster (cast) [L-TRiP(cast)] score of ≥ 9 (£20,000 per QALY threshold) or ≥ 8 (£30,000 per QALY threshold). An optimal threshold on the L-TRiP(cast) receiver operating characteristic curve would have sensitivity of 84–89% and specificity of 46–55%. Limitations Estimates of RAM prognostic accuracy are based on weak evidence. People at risk of bleeding were excluded from trials and, by implication, from modelling. Conclusions Thromboprophylaxis for lower-limb immobilisation due to injury is clinically effective and cost-effective compared with no thromboprophylaxis. Risk-based thromboprophylaxis is potentially optimal but the prognostic accuracy of existing RAMs is uncertain. Future work Research is required to determine whether or not an appropriate RAM can accurately select higher-risk patients for thromboprophylaxis. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017058688. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

A modification of Honoré's triple-link model in the synoptic problem

In New Testament studies, the synoptic problem is concerned with the relationships between the gospels of Matthew, Mark and Luke. In an earlier paper a careful specification in probabilistic terms was set up of Honoré's triple-link model. In the present paper, a modification of Honoré's model is proposed. As previously, counts of the numbers of verbal agreements between the gospels are examined to investigate which of the possible triple-link models appears to give the best fit to the data, but now using the modified version of the model and additional sets of data

Bypassing nearest hospital for more distant neuroscience care in head-injured adults with suspected traumatic brain injury: findings of the head injury transportation straight to neurosurgery (HITS-NS) pilot cluster randomised trial

OBJECTIVE: Reconfiguration of trauma services, with direct transport of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) to specialist neuroscience centres (SNCs)-bypassing non-specialist acute hospitals (NSAHs), could improve outcomes. However, delays in stabilisation of airway, breathing and circulation (ABC) may worsen outcomes when compared with selective secondary transfer from nearest NSAH to SNC. We conducted a pilot cluster randomised controlled trial to determine the feasibility and plausibility of bypassing suspected patients with TBI -directly into SNCs-producing a measurable effect. SETTING: Two English Ambulance Services. PARTICIPANTS: 74 clusters (ambulance stations) were randomised within pairs after matching for important characteristics. Clusters enrolled head-injured adults-injured nearest to an NSAH-with internationally accepted TBI risk factors and stable ABC. We excluded participants attended by Helicopter Emergency Medical Services or who were injured more than 1 hour by road from nearest SNC. INTERVENTIONS: Intervention cluster participants were transported directly to an SNC bypassing nearest NSAH; control cluster participants were transported to nearest NSAH with selective secondary transfer to SNC. OUTCOMES: Trial recruitment rate (target n=700 per annum) and percentage with TBI on CT scan (target 80%) were the primary feasibility outcomes. 30-day mortality, 6-month Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale and quality of life were secondary outcomes. RESULTS: 56 ambulance station clusters recruited 293 patients in 12 months. The trial arms were similar in terms of age, conscious level and injury severity. Less than 25% of recruited patients had TBI on CT (n=70) with 7% (n=20) requiring neurosurgery. Complete case analysis showed similar 30-day mortality in the two trial arms (control=8.8 (2.7-14.0)% vs intervention=9.4(2.3-14.0)%). CONCLUSION: Bypassing patients with suspected TBI to SNCs gives an overtriage (false positive) ratio of 13:1 for neurosurgical intervention and 4:1 for TBI. A measurable effect from a full trial of early neuroscience care following bypass is therefore unlikely. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN68087745

Early computed tomography coronary angiography in adults presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome: the RAPID-CTCA RCT.

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndrome is a common medical emergency. The optimal strategy to investigate patients who are at intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome has not been fully determined. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the role of early computed tomography coronary angiography in the investigation and treatment of adults presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome. DESIGN: A prospective, multicentre, open, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with blinded end-point adjudication. SETTING: Thirty-seven hospitals in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (aged ≥ 18 years) presenting to the emergency department, acute medicine services or cardiology department with suspected or provisionally diagnosed acute coronary syndrome and at least one of the following: (1) a prior history of coronary artery disease, (2) a cardiac troponin level > 99th centile and (3) an abnormal 12-lead electrocardiogram. INTERVENTIONS: Early computed tomography coronary angiography in addition to standard care was compared with standard care alone. Participants were followed up for 1 year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: One-year all-cause death or subsequent type 1 (spontaneous) or type 4b (stent thrombosis) myocardial infarction, measured as the time to such event adjudicated by two cardiologists blinded to the computerised tomography coronary angiography ( CTCA ) arm. Cost-effectiveness was estimated as the lifetime incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. RESULTS: Between 23 March 2015 and 27 June 2019, 1748 participants [mean age 62 years (standard deviation 13 years), 64% male, mean Global Registry Of Acute Coronary Events score 115 (standard deviation 35)] were randomised to receive early computed tomography coronary angiography (n = 877) or standard care alone (n = 871). The primary end point occurred in 51 (5.8%) participants randomised to receive computed tomography coronary angiography and 53 (6.1%) participants randomised to receive standard care (adjusted hazard ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 1.35; p = 0.65). Computed tomography coronary angiography was associated with a reduced use of invasive coronary angiography (adjusted hazard ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.72 to 0.92; p = 0.001) but no change in coronary revascularisation (adjusted hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.21; p = 0.76), acute coronary syndrome therapies (adjusted odds ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.32; p = 0.63) or preventative therapies on discharge (adjusted odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.32; p = 0.52). Early computed tomography coronary angiography was associated with longer hospitalisations (median increase 0.21 days, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.40 days) and higher mean total health-care costs over 1 year (£561 more per patient) than standard care. LIMITATIONS: The principal limitation of the trial was the slower than anticipated recruitment, leading to a revised sample size, and the requirement to compromise and accept a larger relative effect size estimate for the trial intervention. FUTURE WORK: The potential role of computed tomography coronary angiography in selected patients with a low probability of obstructive coronary artery disease (intermediate or mildly elevated level of troponin) or who have limited access to invasive cardiac catheterisation facilities needs further prospective evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with suspected or provisionally diagnosed acute coronary syndrome, computed tomography coronary angiography did not alter overall coronary therapeutic interventions or 1-year clinical outcomes, but it did increase the length of hospital stay and health-care costs. These findings do not support the routine use of early computed tomography coronary angiography in intermediate-risk patients with acute chest pain. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as ISRCTN19102565 and Clinical Trials NCT02284191. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 37. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information