THE MARKETING STYLE OF ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 1995

The 1995 marketing styles for the 25 market advisory service programs included in the AgMAS Project were developed in two steps. The first step was the construction of a detailed "menu" of the tools and strategies used by each of the advisory programs in marketing corn and soybeans. The menu describes the type of pricing tool, frequency of transactions, and magnitude of transactions. The second step was the development of a daily index of the net amount sold by each market advisory program. To construct such an index, the various futures, options, and cash positions recommended for a program on a given day were weighted by the respective position "delta." When the daily values of the index were plotted for the entire marketing period, the marketing "profile" for a program was generated. The results show that advisory programs made a relatively small number of recommendations that primarily involved cash marketing strategies, not futures and options, non-cash marketing recommendations were typically held open for a short period of time, and the re-harvest amount sold averaged 35 percent for corn and 30 percent for soybeans.advisory services, pricing tools, pricing strategies, assessment of recommendations, D4, C8, D8, M3, Q0, Marketing,

Adaptive Regret Minimization in Bounded-Memory Games

Online learning algorithms that minimize regret provide strong guarantees in situations that involve repeatedly making decisions in an uncertain environment, e.g. a driver deciding what route to drive to work every day. While regret minimization has been extensively studied in repeated games, we study regret minimization for a richer class of games called bounded memory games. In each round of a two-player bounded memory-m game, both players simultaneously play an action, observe an outcome and receive a reward. The reward may depend on the last m outcomes as well as the actions of the players in the current round. The standard notion of regret for repeated games is no longer suitable because actions and rewards can depend on the history of play. To account for this generality, we introduce the notion of k-adaptive regret, which compares the reward obtained by playing actions prescribed by the algorithm against a hypothetical k-adaptive adversary with the reward obtained by the best expert in hindsight against the same adversary. Roughly, a hypothetical k-adaptive adversary adapts her strategy to the defender's actions exactly as the real adversary would within each window of k rounds. Our definition is parametrized by a set of experts, which can include both fixed and adaptive defender strategies. We investigate the inherent complexity of and design algorithms for adaptive regret minimization in bounded memory games of perfect and imperfect information. We prove a hardness result showing that, with imperfect information, any k-adaptive regret minimizing algorithm (with fixed strategies as experts) must be inefficient unless NP=RP even when playing against an oblivious adversary. In contrast, for bounded memory games of perfect and imperfect information we present approximate 0-adaptive regret minimization algorithms against an oblivious adversary running in time n^{O(1)}.Comment: Full Version. GameSec 2013 (Invited Paper

Degree of explanation

Partial explanations are everywhere. That is, explanations citing causes that explain some but not all of an effect are ubiquitous across science, and these in turn rely on the notion of degree of explanation. I argue that current accounts are seriously deficient. In particular, they do not incorporate adequately the way in which a cause’s explanatory importance varies with choice of explanandum. Using influential recent contrastive theories, I develop quantitative definitions that remedy this lacuna, and relate it to existing measures of degree of causation. Among other things, this reveals the precise role here of chance, as well as bearing on the relation between causal explanation and causation itself

High resolution evidence for the Garrett-Munk spectrum of stratospheric gravity waves

Vertical profiles of scalar horizontal winds have been measured at high resolution (10 m) in the 13 to 37 km region of the stratosphere. This resolution (at that range of altitude) represents the state-of-the-art, and is unique. The technique used smoke trails laid by rockets in the stratosphere, and were taken by AFGL at Wallops Island, VA, White Sands Missile Range, NM, and Ft. Churchill, Canada, in the 1977-78 time period. Two or three cameras were used to give the time-lapse photographs. The goal was to ascertain whether or not the internal waves of the stratosphere behave consistently with the Garrett-Munk model which was originally created for oceanic internal waves. Five profiles of horizontal wind are presented. It is concluded: (1) stratospheric internal waves obey the Garrett-Munk model for vertical wave numbers; (2) there is not statistically significant evidence for a break in the curve at high wave numbers when due allowance is made for aliasing effects; and (3) the power density level of the spectra are almost equal on a log-log scale in spite of the difference in time, season, and geographical location

Rare and Endangered Vetebrates of Ohio

Author Institution: U.S. Soil Conservation Service; Introductory Biology Program, The Ohio State University; School of Natural Resources, The Ohio State University; and Division of Wildlife, Ohio Department of Natural ResourcesThis paper, an annotated list of Ohio's rare and endangered vertebrate species, was compiled to supplement a similar national list and includes 10 mammals, 62 birds, 10 reptiles, 4 amphibians, and 33 fishes. Where possible, suggestions are made both as to causes of the rare or endangered status of these species and as to means of halting the trend. Ratings of endangered, rare, peripheral, or undetermined, as defined for the national classification, are given for each species

A study of psychiatrists’ concepts of mental illness

Background: There are multiple models of mental illness that inform professional and lay understanding. Few studies have formally investigated psychiatrists' attitudes. We aimed to measure how a group of trainee psychiatrists understand familiar mental illnesses in terms of propositions drawn from different models. Method: We used a questionnaire study of a sample of trainees from South London and Maudsley National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust designed to assess attitudes across eight models of mental illness (e.g. biological, psychodynamic) and four psychiatric disorders. Methods for analysing repeated measures and a principal components analysis (PCA) were used. Results: No one model was endorsed by all respondents. Model endorsement varied with disorder. Attitudes to schizophrenia were expressed with the greatest conviction across models. Overall, the ‘biological’ model was the most strongly endorsed. The first three components of the PCA (interpreted as dimensions around which psychiatrists, as a group, understand mental illness) accounted for 56% of the variance. Each main component was classified in terms of its distinctive combination of statements from different models: PC1 33% biological versus non-biological; PC2 12% ‘eclectic’ (combining biological, behavioural, cognitive and spiritual models); and PC3 10% psychodynamic versus sociological. Conclusions: Trainee psychiatrists are most committed to the biological model for schizophrenia, but in general are not exclusively committed to any one model. As a group, they organize their attitudes towards mental illness in terms of a biological/non-biological contrast, an ‘eclectic’ view and a psychodynamic/sociological contrast. Better understanding of how professional group membership influences attitudes may facilitate better multidisciplinary working

Developmental Changes in Pedunculopontine Nucleus (PPN) Neurons

The developmental decrease in rapid-eye-movement (REM) sleep in man occurs between birth and after puberty. We hypothesize that if this decrease in REM sleep does not occur, lifelong increases in REM sleep drive may ensue. Such disorders are characterized by hypervigilance and sensory-gating deficits, such as are present in postpubertal onset disorders like schizophrenia, panic attacks (a form of anxiety disorder), and depression. The decrease in REM sleep in the rat occurs between 10 and 30 days of age. We studied changes in size and physiological properties of pedunculopontine nucleus (PPN) cells involved in the control of arousal, i.e., waking and REM sleep. During the largest decrease in REM sleep (12–21 days), cholinergic PPN neurons doubled in cell area, the hypertrophy peaking at 15–16 days, then decreasing in area by 20–21 days. Noncholinergic PPN cells did not change in area during this period. We confirmed the presence of two populations of PPN neurons based on action potential (AP) duration, with the proportion of short-AP-duration cells increasing and long AP duration decreasing between 12 and 21 days. Most cholinergic and noncholinergic cells had short AP durations. Afterhyperpolarization (AHP) duration became segregated into long and short AHP duration after 15 days. Cells with short AP duration also had short AHP duration. The proportion of PPN cells with Ih current increased gradually, peaking at 15 days, then decreased by 21 days. These changes in morphological and physiological properties are discussed in relation to the developmental decrease in REM sleep

Matter effects in the D0-D0bar system

We discuss the impact of matter effects in the D0-D0bar system. We show that such effects could, in principle, be measured, but that they cannot be used to probe the mass difference x_D or the lifetime difference y_D. This occurs because the mixing effects and the matter effects decouple at short times. We also comment briefly on the B systems.Comment: 6 pages, RevTe

Design of contoured rollers for web spreading

Contraction of a web in the cross width direction while running over rollers can be traced to runability problems and wound roll defects. These defects may include troughing, baggy lanes, wrinkles and registration difficulties on the machine and creases in the wound roll. Web spreading devices have long been used in industry to restore the moving web to a taught width. At IWEB 4, Swanson [1] presented cases for the effectiveness of ten such devices along with simple models to calculate their ability to spread the web. This presentation extends the previous work by looking at two devices, the parabolic and the "bow tie" shaped rollers, and presents the mathematical derivations used to calculate the spreading ability of each roller. In each case, equations will be presented that, given a reduction in web width, a roller profile may be designed to restore the web to its original width.Mechanical and Aerospace Engineerin