Sur les phrases du type « Elle a de qui tenir »

L’existence des phrases telles que « elle a de qui tenir », où le mot de fait partie d’une expression idiomatique, suggère qu’une position nulle peut apparaître dans certaines positions syntaxiques (par exemple, après certains verbes d’existence) si elles sont suivies par certaines structures qui se comportent comme des relatives à temps non-fini (ici, « de qui tenir »). De telles structures se rencontrent dans d’autres langues romanes. Pourtant, d’autres phrases qui ressemblent à ce premier groupe existent en français (à la différence des autres langues romanes) où le de en question n’est pas la préposition indépendente de, mais plutôt le de qui se trouve au sein du syntagme nominal uniquement en français (par exemple, « elle a de quoi boire »).Sentences such as "elle a de qui tenir", where the de forms an idiomatic lexical entry with tenir ("tenir de" = "take after"), suggests that in certain syntactic positions (following verbs of existence, inter alia) null positions can appear when followed by certain structures that behave much like infinitival relatives (here, "de qui tenir"). Such structures are paralleled in other Romance languages. However, other superficially parallel sentences exist in French (though not the other Romance languages) where the de in question is not the independent preposition de, but rather the French-specific NP-internal de, as in "elle a de quoi boire.

Composite Poisson Models For Goal Scoring

Goal scoring in sports such as hockey and soccer is often modeled as a Poisson process. We work with a Poisson model where the mean goals scored by the home team is the sum of parameters for the home team\u27s offense, the road team\u27s defense, and a home advantage. The mean goals for the road team is the sum of parameters for the road team\u27s offense and for the home team\u27s defense. The best teams have a large offensive parameter value and a small defensive parameter value. A level-2 model connects the offensive and defensive parameters for the k teams. Parameter inference is made by imagining that goals can be classified as being strictly due to offense, to (lack of) defense, or to home-field advantage. Though not a realistic description, such a breakdown is consistent with our model assumptions and the literature, and we can work out the conditional distributions and generate random partitions to facilitate inference about the team parameters. We use the conditional Binomial distribution, given the Poisson totals and the current parameter values, to partition each observed goal total at each iteration in an MCMC algorithm

Excess death rates for Republicans and Democrats during the COVID-19 pandemic

Political affiliation has emerged as a potential risk factor for COVID-19, amid evidence that Republican-leaning counties have had higher COVID-19 death rates than Democrat-leaning counties and evidence of a link between political party affiliation and vaccination views. This study constructs an individual-level dataset with political affiliation and excess death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic via a linkage of 2017 voter registration in Ohio and Florida to mortality data from 2018 to 2021. We estimate substantially higher excess death rates for registered Republicans when compared to registered Democrats, with almost all of the difference concentrated in the period after vaccines were widely available in our study states. Overall, the excess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points (pp), or 76%, higher than the excess death rate for Democrats. Post-vaccines, the excess death rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% of the Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess death rate). The gap in excess death rates between Republicans and Democrats is concentrated in counties with low vaccination rates and only materializes after vaccines became widely available

MBS Ratings and the Mortgage Credit Boom

We study credit ratings on subprime and Alt-A mortgage-backed securities (MBS) deals issued between 2001 and 2007, the period leading up to the subprime crisis. The fraction of highly-rated securities in each deal is decreasing in mortgage credit risk (measured either ex-ante or ex-post), suggesting ratings contain useful information for investors. However, we also find evidence of significant time-variation in risk-adjusted credit ratings, including a progressive decline in standards around the MBS market peak between the start of 2005 and mid-2007. Conditional on initial ratings, we observe underperformance (high mortgage defaults and losses, and large rating downgrades) amongst deals with observably higher-risk mortgages based on a simple ex-ante model, and deals with a high fraction of opaque low-documentation loans. These findings hold over the entire sample period, not just for deal cohorts most affected by the crisis.

Contagion Effects of the Silicon Valley Bank Run

This paper analyzes the contagion effects associated with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and identifies bank-specific vulnerabilities contributing to the subsequent declines in banks' stock returns. We find that uninsured deposits, unrealized losses in held-to-maturity securities, bank size, and cash holdings had a significant impact, while better-quality assets or holdings of liquid securities did not help mitigate the negative spillovers. Interestingly, banks whose stocks performed worse post SVB also had lower returns in the previous year following Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The stock market partially anticipated risks associated with uninsured deposit reliance, but did not price in unrealized losses due to interest rate hikes nor risks linked to bank size. While mid-sized banks experienced particular stress immediately after the SVB failure, over time negative spillovers became widespread except for the largest banks

MBS Ratings and the Mortgage Credit Boom

We study credit ratings on subprime and Alt-A mortgage-backed securities (MBS) deals issued between 2001 and 2007, the period leading up to the subprime crisis. The fraction of highly-rated securities in each deal is decreasing in mortgage credit risk (measured either ex-ante or ex-post), suggesting ratings contain useful information for investors. However, we also find evidence of significant time-variation in risk-adjusted credit ratings, including a progressive decline in standards around the MBS market peak between the start of 2005 and mid-2007. Conditional on initial ratings, we observe underperformance (high mortgage defaults and losses, and large rating downgrades) amongst deals with observably higher-risk mortgages based on a simple ex-ante model, and deals with a high fraction of opaque low-documentation loans. These findings hold over the entire sample period, not just for deal cohorts most affected by the crisis.