Measurement error in a multi-level analysis of air pollution and health: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Spatio-temporal models are increasingly being used to predict exposure to ambient outdoor air pollution at high spatial resolution for inclusion in epidemiological analyses of air pollution and health. Measurement error in these predictions can nevertheless have impacts on health effect estimation. Using statistical simulation we aim to investigate the effects of such error within a multi-level model analysis of long and short-term pollutant exposure and health. METHODS: Our study was based on a theoretical sample of 1000 geographical sites within Greater London. Simulations of "true" site-specific daily mean and 5-year mean NO2 and PM10 concentrations, incorporating both temporal variation and spatial covariance, were informed by an analysis of daily measurements over the period 2009-2013 from fixed location urban background monitors in the London area. In the context of a multi-level single-pollutant Poisson regression analysis of mortality, we investigated scenarios in which we specified: the Pearson correlation between modelled and "true" data and the ratio of their variances (model versus "true") and assumed these parameters were the same spatially and temporally. RESULTS: In general, health effect estimates associated with both long and short-term exposure were biased towards the null with the level of bias increasing to over 60% as the correlation coefficient decreased from 0.9 to 0.5 and the variance ratio increased from 0.5 to 2. However, for a combination of high correlation (0.9) and small variance ratio (0.5) non-trivial bias (> 25%) away from the null was observed. Standard errors of health effect estimates, though unaffected by changes in the correlation coefficient, appeared to be attenuated for variance ratios > 1 but inflated for variance ratios < 1. CONCLUSION: While our findings suggest that in most cases modelling errors result in attenuation of the effect estimate towards the null, in some situations a non-trivial bias away from the null may occur. The magnitude and direction of bias appears to depend on the relationship between modelled and "true" data in terms of their correlation and the ratio of their variances. These factors should be taken into account when assessing the validity of modelled air pollution predictions for use in complex epidemiological models

Evaluating Depressive Symptoms in Schizophrenia: A Psychometric Comparison of the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia and the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale

Background: The aim of this study was to compare two measures of depression in patients with schizophrenia and schizophrenia spectrum disorder, including patients with delusional and schizoaffective disorder, to conclude implications for their application. Sampling and Methods: A total of 278 patients were assessed using the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia (CDSS) and the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD-17). The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was also applied. At admission and discharge, a principal component analysis was performed with each depression scale. The two depression rating scales were furthermore compared using correlation and regression analyses. Results: Three factors were revealed for the CDSS and HAMD-17 factor component analysis. A very similar item loading was found for the CDSS at admission and discharge, whereas results of the loadings of the HAMD-17 items were less stable. The first two factors of the CDSS revealed correlations with positive, negative and general psychopathology. In contrast, multiple significant correlations were found for the HAMD-17 factors and the PANSS sub-scores. Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that the HAMD-17 accounted more for the positive and negative symptom domains than the CDSS. Conclusions:The present results suggest that compared to the HAMD-17, the CDSS is a more specific instrument to measure depressive symptoms in schizophrenia and schizophrenia spectrum disorder, especially in acutely ill patients. Copyright (c) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Flecainide overdose – support using an intra-aortic balloon pump

BACKGROUND: Flecainide is an antiarrhythmic agent which is being used increasingly for the management of super-ventricular arrhythmias. Overdose with flecainide is frequently fatal with mortality reported as high as 22% due to arrhythmias, myocardial depression and conduction defects leading to electro-mechanical dissociation and asytole. Supportive measures are often required during the case and previously have included inotropes, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and cardiopulmonary bypass. CASE PRESENTATION: A 47 year old lady presented to the emergency department with a four hour history of severe central chest pain. Her ECG showed atrial fibrillation and broad QRS complexes with a sine wave appearance. She had a past history of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and significant psychiatric history. Following thrombolysis for a presumed myocardial infarction she developed cardiogenic shock with severely impaired left ventricular function. An intra-aortic balloon pump was inserted and coronary angiography demonstrated normal coronary arteries. With inotropic support she improved over 48 hours, with both her QRS duration and left ventricular function returning to normal. Biochemical testing following her discharge demonstrated significantly elevated levels of flecainide. CONCLUSION: The use of an intra-aortic balloon pump is a useful supportive measure during the acute phase of flecainide overdose associated with severe myocardial depression

Dental management considerations for the patient with an acquired coagulopathy. Part 1: Coagulopathies from systemic disease

Current teaching suggests that many patients are at risk for prolonged bleeding during and following invasive dental procedures, due to an acquired coagulopathy from systemic disease and/or from medications. However, treatment standards for these patients often are the result of long-standing dogma with little or no scientific basis. The medical history is critical for the identification of patients potentially at risk for prolonged bleeding from dental treatment. Some time-honoured laboratory tests have little or no use in community dental practice. Loss of functioning hepatic, renal, or bone marrow tissue predisposes to acquired coagulopathies through different mechanisms, but the relationship to oral haemostasis is poorly understood. Given the lack of established, science-based standards, proper dental management requires an understanding of certain principles of pathophysiology for these medical conditions and a few standard laboratory tests. Making changes in anticoagulant drug regimens are often unwarranted and/or expensive, and can put patients at far greater risk for morbidity and mortality than the unlikely outcome of postoperative bleeding. It should be recognised that prolonged bleeding is a rare event following invasive dental procedures, and therefore the vast majority of patients with suspected acquired coagulopathies are best managed in the community practice setting

Exploring 4D Quantum Hall Physics with a 2D Topological Charge Pump

The discovery of topological states of matter has profoundly augmented our understanding of phase transitions in physical systems. Instead of local order parameters, topological phases are described by global topological invariants and are therefore robust against perturbations. A prominent example thereof is the two-dimensional integer quantum Hall effect. It is characterized by the first Chern number which manifests in the quantized Hall response induced by an external electric field. Generalizing the quantum Hall effect to four-dimensional systems leads to the appearance of a novel non-linear Hall response that is quantized as well, but described by a 4D topological invariant - the second Chern number. Here, we report on the first observation of a bulk response with intrinsic 4D topology and the measurement of the associated second Chern number. By implementing a 2D topological charge pump with ultracold bosonic atoms in an angled optical superlattice, we realize a dynamical version of the 4D integer quantum Hall effect. Using a small atom cloud as a local probe, we fully characterize the non-linear response of the system by in-situ imaging and site-resolved band mapping. Our findings pave the way to experimentally probe higher-dimensional quantum Hall systems, where new topological phases with exotic excitations are predicted

SPECULOOS exoplanet search and its prototype on TRAPPIST

One of the most significant goals of modern science is establishing whether life exists around other suns. The most direct path towards its achievement is the detection and atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets with potentially habitable surface conditions. The nearest ultracool dwarfs (UCDs), i.e. very-low-mass stars and brown dwarfs with effective temperatures lower than 2700 K, represent a unique opportunity to reach this goal within the next decade. The potential of the transit method for detecting potentially habitable Earth-sized planets around these objects is drastically increased compared to Earth-Sun analogs. Furthermore, only a terrestrial planet transiting a nearby UCD would be amenable for a thorough atmospheric characterization, including the search for possible biosignatures, with near-future facilities such as the James Webb Space Telescope. In this chapter, we first describe the physical properties of UCDs as well as the unique potential they offer for the detection of potentially habitable Earth-sized planets suitable for atmospheric characterization. Then, we present the SPECULOOS ground-based transit survey, that will search for Earth-sized planets transiting the nearest UCDs, as well as its prototype survey on the TRAPPIST telescopes. We conclude by discussing the prospects offered by the recent detection by this prototype survey of a system of seven temperate Earth-sized planets transiting a nearby UCD, TRAPPIST-1.Comment: Submitted as a chapter in the "Handbook of Exoplanets" (editors: H. Deeg & J.A. Belmonte; Section Editor: N. Narita). 16 pages, 4 figure

Evolutionary distances in the twilight zone -- a rational kernel approach

Phylogenetic tree reconstruction is traditionally based on multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) and heavily depends on the validity of this information bottleneck. With increasing sequence divergence, the quality of MSAs decays quickly. Alignment-free methods, on the other hand, are based on abstract string comparisons and avoid potential alignment problems. However, in general they are not biologically motivated and ignore our knowledge about the evolution of sequences. Thus, it is still a major open question how to define an evolutionary distance metric between divergent sequences that makes use of indel information and known substitution models without the need for a multiple alignment. Here we propose a new evolutionary distance metric to close this gap. It uses finite-state transducers to create a biologically motivated similarity score which models substitutions and indels, and does not depend on a multiple sequence alignment. The sequence similarity score is defined in analogy to pairwise alignments and additionally has the positive semi-definite property. We describe its derivation and show in simulation studies and real-world examples that it is more accurate in reconstructing phylogenies than competing methods. The result is a new and accurate way of determining evolutionary distances in and beyond the twilight zone of sequence alignments that is suitable for large datasets.Comment: to appear in PLoS ON

The ethics of uncertainty for data subjects

Modern health data practices come with many practical uncertainties. In this paper, I argue that data subjects’ trust in the institutions and organizations that control their data, and their ability to know their own moral obligations in relation to their data, are undermined by significant uncertainties regarding the what, how, and who of mass data collection and analysis. I conclude by considering how proposals for managing situations of high uncertainty might be applied to this problem. These emphasize increasing organizational flexibility, knowledge, and capacity, and reducing hazard

Study protocol: developing a decision system for inclusive housing: applying a systematic, mixed-method quasi-experimental design

Background Identifying the housing preferences of people with complex disabilities is a much needed, but under-developed area of practice and scholarship. Despite the recognition that housing is a social determinant of health and quality of life, there is an absence of empirical methodologies that can practically and systematically involve consumers in this complex service delivery and housing design market. A rigorous process for making effective and consistent development decisions is needed to ensure resources are used effectively and the needs of consumers with complex disability are properly met. Methods/Design This 3-year project aims to identify how the public and private housing market in Australia can better respond to the needs of people with complex disabilities whilst simultaneously achieving key corporate objectives. First, using the Customer Relationship Management framework, qualitative (Nominal Group Technique) and quantitative (Discrete Choice Experiment) methods will be used to quantify the housing preferences of consumers and their carers. A systematic mixed-method, quasi-experimental design will then be used to quantify the development priorities of other key stakeholders (e.g., architects, developers, Government housing services etc.) in relation to inclusive housing for people with complex disabilities. Stakeholders randomly assigned to Group 1 (experimental group) will participate in a series of focus groups employing Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) methodology. Stakeholders randomly assigned to Group 2 (control group) will participate in focus groups employing existing decision making processes to inclusive housing development (e.g., Risk, Opportunity, Cost, Benefit considerations). Using comparative stakeholder analysis, this research design will enable the AHP methodology (a proposed tool to guide inclusive housing development decisions) to be tested. Discussion It is anticipated that the findings of this study will enable stakeholders to incorporate consumer housing preferences into commercial decisions. Housing designers and developers will benefit from the creation of a parsimonious set of consumer-led housing preferences by which to make informed investments in future housing and contribute to future housing policy. The research design has not been applied in the Australian research context or elsewhere, and will provide a much needed blueprint for market investment to develop viable, consumer directed inclusive housing options for people with complex disability

The cometary composition of a protoplanetary disk as revealed by complex cyanides

Observations of comets and asteroids show that the Solar Nebula that spawned our planetary system was rich in water and organic molecules. Bombardment brought these organics to the young Earth's surface, seeding its early chemistry. Unlike asteroids, comets preserve a nearly pristine record of the Solar Nebula composition. The presence of cyanides in comets, including 0.01% of methyl cyanide (CH3CN) with respect to water, is of special interest because of the importance of C-N bonds for abiotic amino acid synthesis. Comet-like compositions of simple and complex volatiles are found in protostars, and can be readily explained by a combination of gas-phase chemistry to form e.g. HCN and an active ice-phase chemistry on grain surfaces that advances complexity[3]. Simple volatiles, including water and HCN, have been detected previously in Solar Nebula analogues - protoplanetary disks around young stars - indicating that they survive disk formation or are reformed in situ. It has been hitherto unclear whether the same holds for more complex organic molecules outside of the Solar Nebula, since recent observations show a dramatic change in the chemistry at the boundary between nascent envelopes and young disks due to accretion shocks[8]. Here we report the detection of CH3CN (and HCN and HC3N) in the protoplanetary disk around the young star MWC 480. We find abundance ratios of these N-bearing organics in the gas-phase similar to comets, which suggests an even higher relative abundance of complex cyanides in the disk ice. This implies that complex organics accompany simpler volatiles in protoplanetary disks, and that the rich organic chemistry of the Solar Nebula was not unique.Comment: Definitive version of the manuscript is published in Nature, 520, 7546, 198, 2015. This is the author's versio