On the (De)Stabilization Effects of Biofuels: Relative Contributions of Policy Instruments and Market Forces

Ethanol production has recently surged in response to biofuel policies and increased fossil oil prices. We develop a partial equilibrium model focused on U.S. corn-based ethanol production with downside risk-averse farmers to assess the consequences of ethanol production on agricultural volatility. We report substantial effects on the distribution of corn prices with increases in the variance of prices received by farmers. Risk-averse corn farmers still benefit due to the higher mean price effect. From a methodological perspective, this analysis reveals that downside risk aversion may be important

On the (de) stabilisation effects of biofuels: the relative contributions of market forces and policy instruments

Ethanol production has recently surged in response to biofuel policies and increased fossil oil prices. We develop a partial equilibrium model focused on U.S. corn-based ethanol production with downside risk-averse farmers to assess the consequences of ethanol production on agricultural volatility. We report substantial effects on the distribution of corn prices with increases in the variance of prices received by farmers. Risk-averse corn farmers still benefit due to the higher mean price effect. From a methodological perspective, this analysis reveals that downside risk aversion may be important

On the (De)Stabilization Effects of Biofuels: Relative Contributions of Policy Instruments and Market Forces

Ethanol production has recently surged in response to biofuel policies and increased fossil oil prices. We develop a partial equilibrium model focused on U.S. corn-based ethanol production with downside risk-averse farmers to assess the consequences of ethanol production on agricultural volatility. We report substantial effects on the distribution of corn prices with increases in the variance of prices received by farmers. Risk-averse corn farmers still benefit due to the higher mean price effect. From a methodological perspective, this analysis reveals that downside risk aversion may be important.biofuels, policy, risk, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Observed and projected Sea Surface Temperature seasonal changes in the Western English Channel from satellite data and CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

International audienceSeasonal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes in the Western English Channel have been estimated for the previous decades from high-resolution satellite data. Coastal seas, well separated from offshore waters by intense frontal structures, show colder SST by 1 to 2°C in summer. A significant warming trend is observed in the autumn season. This positive trend is stronger offshore, with an annual mean SST increase of 0.32°C/decade, but weaker in coastal waters (0.23°C/decade), where strong vertical mixing induced by tides and winds acts to reduce surface warming. The performance of an ensemble of CMIP5 climate model in simulating recent seasonal changes of SST in the region is estimated. The median of CMIP5 models reproduces very well the observed SST mean seasonal cycle in offshore waters but is less proficient in the coastal sector due to the coarse resolution of the models and the absence of tidal forcing and related processes. In the Iroise Sea, a region of intense biological activity located off the western tip of Brittany, the trend of the annual mean SST is relatively well simulated, albeit somewhat underestimated (0.20°/decade) and evenly distributed throughout the year. Here, the increase in annual mean SST in CMIP5 future scenarios simulations ranges from 0.5°C (RCP2.6) to 2.5°C (RCP8.5) by year 2100, with a seasonal modulation leading to a more intense warming in summer than in winter. This increase in SST may strongly affect marine biology, particularly phytoplankton phenology, macro-algae biomass and benthic fauna, including exploited shellfish, in the Western English Channel