EXISTENCE OF UNIQUE LIMITING PROBABILITY VECTORS IN STOCHASTIC PROCESSES WITH MULTIPLE TRANSITION MATRICES

Concepts associated with stochastic process containing multiple transition matricies are discussed. It is proved that under certain conditions, a process with m transition matrices has m unique limiting probability vectors. This result extends the notion of discrete Markov processes to problems with intrayear and interyear dynamics. An example using a large DP model illustrates the usefulness of the concepts developed to applied problems.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Characterisation and Germline Transmission of Cultured Avian Primordial Germ Cells

Background: Avian primordial germ cells (PGCs) have significant potential to be used as a cell-based system for the study and preservation of avian germplasm, and the genetic modification of the avian genome. It was previously reported that PGCs from chicken embryos can be propagated in culture and contribute to the germ cell lineage of host birds. Principal Findings: We confirm these results by demonstrating that PGCs from a different layer breed of chickens can be propagated for extended periods in vitro. We demonstrate that intracellular signalling through PI3K and MEK is necessary for PGC growth. We carried out an initial characterisation of these cells. We find that cultured PGCs contain large lipid vacuoles, are glycogen rich, and express the stem cell marker, SSEA-1. These cells also express the germ cell-specific proteins CVH and CDH. Unexpectedly, using RT-PCR we show that cultured PGCs express the pluripotency genes c-Myc, cKlf4, cPouV, cSox2, and cNanog. Finally, we demonstrate that the cultured PGCs will migrate to and colonise the forming gonad of host embryos. Male PGCs will colonise the female gonad and enter meiosis, but are lost from the gonad during sexual development. In male hosts, cultured PGCs form functional gametes as demonstrated by the generation of viable offspring. Conclusions: The establishment of in vitro cultures of germline competent avian PGCs offers a unique system for the study of early germ cell differentiation and also a comparative system for mammalian germ cell development. Primary PGC lines will form the basis of an alternative technique for the preservation of avian germplasm and will be a valuable tool fo

Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening.

Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modeling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 y in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000 to £30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed, and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual-level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening v. those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness, as observed in a large, randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies

Genetic dissection of MHC-associated susceptibility to Lepeophtheirus salmonis in Atlantic salmon

Background: Genetic variation has been shown to play a significant role in determining susceptibility to the salmon louse, Lepeophtheirus salmonis. However, the mechanisms involved in differential response to infection remain poorly understood. Recent findings in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) have provided evidence for a potential link between marker variation at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) and differences in lice abundance among infected siblings, suggesting that MHC genes can modulate susceptibility to the parasite. In this study, we used quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis to test the effect of genomic regions linked to MHC class I and II on linkage groups (LG) 15 and 6, respectively. Results: Significant QTL effects were detected on both LG 6 and LG 15 in sire-based analysis but the QTL regions remained unresolved due to a lack of recombination between markers. In dam-based analysis, a significant QTL was identified on LG 6, which accounted for 12.9% of within-family variance in lice abundance. However, the QTL was located at the opposite end of DAA, with no significant overlap with the MHC class II region. Interestingly, QTL modelling also revealed evidence of sex-linked differences in lice abundance, indicating that males and females may have different susceptibility to infection. Conclusion: Overall, QTL analysis provided relatively weak support for a proximal effect of classical MHC regions on lice abundance, which can partly be explained by linkage to other genes controlling susceptibility to L. salmonis on the same chromosom

Minimax Current Density Coil Design

'Coil design' is an inverse problem in which arrangements of wire are designed to generate a prescribed magnetic field when energized with electric current. The design of gradient and shim coils for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are important examples of coil design. The magnetic fields that these coils generate are usually required to be both strong and accurate. Other electromagnetic properties of the coils, such as inductance, may be considered in the design process, which becomes an optimization problem. The maximum current density is additionally optimized in this work and the resultant coils are investigated for performance and practicality. Coils with minimax current density were found to exhibit maximally spread wires and may help disperse localized regions of Joule heating. They also produce the highest possible magnetic field strength per unit current for any given surface and wire size. Three different flavours of boundary element method that employ different basis functions (triangular elements with uniform current, cylindrical elements with sinusoidal current and conic section elements with sinusoidal-uniform current) were used with this approach to illustrate its generality.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables. To appear in Journal of Physics D: Applied Physic

Analysis of clinical benefit, harms, and cost-effectiveness of screening women for abdominal aortic aneurysm.

BACKGROUND: A third of deaths in the UK from ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are in women. In men, national screening programmes reduce deaths from AAA and are cost-effective. The benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness in offering a similar programme to women have not been formally assessed, and this was the aim of this study. METHODS: We developed a decision model to assess predefined outcomes of death caused by AAA, life years, quality-adjusted life years, costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for a population of women invited to AAA screening versus a population who were not invited to screening. A discrete event simulation model was set up for AAA screening, surveillance, and intervention. Relevant women-specific parameters were obtained from sources including systematic literature reviews, national registry or administrative databases, major AAA surgery trials, and UK National Health Service reference costs. FINDINGS: AAA screening for women, as currently offered to UK men (at age 65 years, with an AAA diagnosis at an aortic diameter of ≥3·0 cm, and elective repair considered at ≥5·5cm) gave, over 30 years, an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £30 000 (95% CI 12 000-87 000) per quality-adjusted life year gained, with 3900 invitations to screening required to prevent one AAA-related death and an overdiagnosis rate of 33%. A modified option for women (screening at age 70 years, diagnosis at 2·5 cm and repair at 5·0 cm) was estimated to have an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £23 000 (9500-71 000) per quality-adjusted life year and 1800 invitations to screening required to prevent one AAA-death, but an overdiagnosis rate of 55%. There was considerable uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness ratio, largely driven by uncertainty about AAA prevalence, the distribution of aortic sizes for women at different ages, and the effect of screening on quality of life. INTERPRETATION: By UK standards, an AAA screening programme for women, designed to be similar to that used to screen men, is unlikely to be cost-effective. Further research on the aortic diameter distribution in women and potential quality of life decrements associated with screening are needed to assess the full benefits and harms of modified options. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Trypanosoma brucei aquaglyceroporin 2 is a high-affinity transporter for pentamidine and melaminophenyl arsenic drugs and the main genetic determinant of resistance to these drugs.

OBJECTIVES: Trypanosoma brucei drug transporters include the TbAT1/P2 aminopurine transporter and the high-affinity pentamidine transporter (HAPT1), but the genetic identity of HAPT1 is unknown. We recently reported that loss of T. brucei aquaglyceroporin 2 (TbAQP2) caused melarsoprol/pentamidine cross-resistance (MPXR) in these parasites and the current study aims to delineate the mechanism by which this occurs. METHODS: The TbAQP2 loci of isogenic pairs of drug-susceptible and MPXR strains of T. brucei subspecies were sequenced. Drug susceptibility profiles of trypanosome strains were correlated with expression of mutated TbAQP2 alleles. Pentamidine transport was studied in T. brucei subspecies expressing TbAQP2 variants. RESULTS: All MPXR strains examined contained TbAQP2 deletions or rearrangements, regardless of whether the strains were originally adapted in vitro or in vivo to arsenicals or to pentamidine. The MPXR strains and AQP2 knockout strains had lost HAPT1 activity. Reintroduction of TbAQP2 in MPXR trypanosomes restored susceptibility to the drugs and reinstated HAPT1 activity, but did not change the activity of TbAT1/P2. Expression of TbAQP2 sensitized Leishmania mexicana promastigotes 40-fold to pentamidine and >1000-fold to melaminophenyl arsenicals and induced a high-affinity pentamidine transport activity indistinguishable from HAPT1 by Km and inhibitor profile. Grafting the TbAQP2 selectivity filter amino acid residues onto a chimeric allele of AQP2 and AQP3 partly restored susceptibility to pentamidine and an arsenical. CONCLUSIONS: TbAQP2 mediates high-affinity uptake of pentamidine and melaminophenyl arsenicals in trypanosomes and TbAQP2 encodes the previously reported HAPT1 activity. This finding establishes TbAQP2 as an important drug transporter