Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions

Modelling to bridge many boundaries: the Colorado and Murray-Darling River basins

Increasing pressure on shared water resources has often been a driver for the development and utilisation of water resource models (WRMs) to inform planning and management decisions. With an increasing emphasis on regional decision-making among competing actors as opposed to top-down and authoritative directives, the need for integrated knowledge and water diplomacy efforts across federal and international rivers provides a test bed for the ability of WRMs to operate within complex historical, social, environmental, institutional and political contexts. This paper draws on theories of sustainability science to examine the role of WRMs to inform transboundary water resource governance in large river basins. We survey designers and users of WRMs in the Colorado River Basin in North America and the Murray-Darling Basin in southeastern Australia. Water governance in such federal rivers challenges inter-governmental and multi-level coordination and we explore these dynamics through the application of WRMs. The development pathways of WRMs are found to influence their uptake and acceptance as decision support tools. Furthermore, we find evidence that WRMs are used as boundary objects and perform the functions of ‘boundary work’ between scientists, decision-makers and stakeholders in the midst of regional environmental changes

Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast

Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to people in crater proximity, are often underestimated and have been comparatively understudied. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (New Zealand) provides an exceptional opportunity to study the statistics of recurring phreatic explosions at a crater lake volcano. We performed a statistical analysis on this phreatic eruption database, which suggests that phreatic events at Ruapehu do not follow a Poisson process. Instead they tend to cluster, which is possibly linked to an increased heat flow during periods of a more shallow-seated magma column. Larger explosions are more likely to follow shortly after smaller events, as opposed to longer periods of quiescence. The absolute probability for a phreatic explosion to occur at Ruapehu within the next month is about 10%, when averaging over the last 70 years of recording. However, the frequency of phreatic explosions is significantly higher than the background level in years prior to magmatic episodes. Combining clast ejection simulations with a Bayesian event tree tool (PyBetVH) we perform a probabilistic assessment of the hazard due to ballistic ejecta in the summit area of Ruapehu, which is frequently visited by hikers. Resulting hazard maps show that the absolute probability for the summit to be affected by ballistics within the next month is up to 6%. The hazard is especially high on the northern lakeshore, where there is a mountain refuge. Our results contribute to the local hazard assessment as well as the general perception of hazards due to steam-driven explosions

Methodologies for defining quality of life

Quality of life as a concept has been used in many ways in the public policy arena. It can be used in summative evaluations to assess the impacts of policies or programs. Alternatively, it can be applied to formative evaluations to provide input to the formation of new policies. In short, it provides the context for the understanding needed to evaluate the results of choices that have been made in the public policy arena, or the potential of choices yet to be made. In either case, the public policy question revolves around the positive or negative impact the choice will have on quality of life, and the magnitude of that impact. This discussion will develop a conceptual framework that proposes that an assessment of quality of life is based on a comparison of expectations with experience. The framework defines four basic components from which these expectations arise: natural conditions, social conditions, the body, and the mind. Each one of these components is generally described, and associated with a general policy or rhetorical category which gives it its policy vocabulary--environmental quality, economic well-being, human health, and self-fulfillment

The vital issues process: Strategic planning for a changing world

The Vital Issues process (VIp) is a strategic planning tool initially developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the Office of Foreign Intelligence (OFI)* of the US Department of Energy (DOE). It was further developed and refined through its application to a variety of strategic purposes for a range of public and semipublic organizations. The VIp provides a structured mechanism for assisting organizations in accomplishing specified objectives by identifying and prioritizing a portfolio of strategic issues, programmatic areas, or responses to a specified problem. It employs day-long panel meetings in a specified format to elicit a broad range of perspectives on a particular issue in a nonconfrontational manner and to facilitate the interaction and synthesis of diverse viewpoints on a specific topic. The VIp is unique in its incorporation of two primary approaches in each panel session: a qualitative or transactional segment, which entails the synthesis of the alternatives through negotiations or discussion, and a quantitative or net benefit maximization segment, an analytical approach, which involves prioritization of the alternatives using pairwise comparisons. This combination of facilitated group discussion and quantitative ranking provides input to strategic management decisions in the form of stakeholder-defined and -prioritized items as well as information on potential barriers to the implementation of policies and programs. This is the final volume in the series Identifying Vital Issues: New Intelligence Strategies for a New World, a three-volume set that gives an accounting of the VIp as implemented for OFI. This volume provides an in-depth description of the methodology used in the VIp