Time of Emergence of Surface Ocean Carbon Dioxide Trends in the North American Coastal Margins in Support of Ocean Acidification Observing System Design

Time of Emergence (ToE) is the time when a signal emerges from the noise of natural variability. Commonly used in climate science for the detection of anthropogenic forcing, this concept has recently been applied to geochemical variables, to assess the emerging times of anthropogenic ocean acidification (OA), mostly in the open ocean using global climate and Earth System Models. Yet studies of OA variables are scarce within costal margins, due to limited multidecadal time-series observations of carbon parameters. ToE provides important information for decision making regarding the strategic configuration of observing assets, to ensure they are optimally positioned either for signal detection and/or process elicitation and to identify the most suitable variables in discerning OA-related changes. Herein, we present a short overview of ToE estimates on an OA variable, CO2 fugacity f(CO2,sw), in the North American ocean margins, using coastal data from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) V5. ToE suggests an average theoretical timeframe for an OA signal to emerge, of 23(±13) years, but with considerable spatial variability. Most coastal areas are experiencing additional secular and/or multi-decadal forcing(s) that modifies the OA signal, and such forcing may not be sufficiently resolved by current observations. We provide recommendations, which will help scientists and decision makers design and implement OA monitoring systems in the next decade, to address the objectives of OceanObs19 (http://www.oceanobs19.net) in support of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030) (https://en.unesco.org/ocean-decade) and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14.3 (https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg14) target to “Minimize and address the impacts of OA.

Projecting ocean acidification impacts for the Gulf of Maine to 2050: new tools and expectations

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Siedlecki, S. A., Salisbury, J., Gledhill, D. K., Bastidas, C., Meseck, S., McGarry, K., Hunt, C. W., Alexander, M., Lavoie, D., Wang, Z. A., Scott, J., Brady, D. C., Mlsna, I., Azetsu-Scott, K., Liberti, C. M., Melrose, D. C., White, M. M., Pershing, A., Vandemark, D., Townsend, D. W., Chen, C,. Mook, W., Morrison, R. Projecting ocean acidification impacts for the Gulf of Maine to 2050: new tools and expectations. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 9(1), (2021): 00062, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.00062.Ocean acidification (OA) is increasing predictably in the global ocean as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide lead to higher oceanic concentrations of inorganic carbon. The Gulf of Maine (GOM) is a seasonally varying region of confluence for many processes that further affect the carbonate system including freshwater influences and high productivity, particularly near the coast where local processes impart a strong influence. Two main regions within the GOM currently experience carbonate conditions that are suboptimal for many organisms—the nearshore and subsurface deep shelf. OA trends over the past 15 years have been masked in the GOM by recent warming and changes to the regional circulation that locally supply more Gulf Stream waters. The region is home to many commercially important shellfish that are vulnerable to OA conditions, as well as to the human populations whose dependence on shellfish species in the fishery has continued to increase over the past decade. Through a review of the sensitivity of the regional marine ecosystem inhabitants, we identified a critical threshold of 1.5 for the aragonite saturation state (Ωa). A combination of regional high-resolution simulations that include coastal processes were used to project OA conditions for the GOM into 2050. By 2050, the Ωa declines everywhere in the GOM with most pronounced impacts near the coast, in subsurface waters, and associated with freshening. Under the RCP 8.5 projected climate scenario, the entire GOM will experience conditions below the critical Ωa threshold of 1.5 for most of the year by 2050. Despite these declines, the projected warming in the GOM imparts a partial compensatory effect to Ωa by elevating saturation states considerably above what would result from acidification alone and preserving some important fisheries locations, including much of Georges Bank, above the critical threshold.This research was financially supported by the Major Special Projects of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2016YFC020600), the Young Scholars Science Foundation of Lanzhou Jiaotong University (2018033), and the Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship Projects of Lanzhou (2018-RC-84)

Ocean and coastal acidification off New England and Nova Scotia

Author Posting. © The Oceanography Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of The Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 28, no. 2 (2015): 182-197, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2015.41.New England coastal and adjacent Nova Scotia shelf waters have a reduced buffering capacity because of significant freshwater input, making the region’s waters potentially more vulnerable to coastal acidification. Nutrient loading and heavy precipitation events further acidify the region’s poorly buffered coastal waters. Despite the apparent vulnerability of these waters, and fisheries’ and mariculture’s significant dependence on calcifying species, the community lacks the ability to confidently predict how the region’s ecosystems will respond to continued ocean and coastal acidification. Here, we discuss ocean and coastal acidification processes specific to New England coastal and Nova Scotia shelf waters and review current understanding of the biological consequences most relevant to the region. We also identify key research and monitoring needs to be addressed and highlight existing capacities that should be leveraged to advance a regional understanding of ocean and coastal acidification.This project was supported in part by an appointment to the Internship/Research Participation Program at the Office of Water, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education through an interagency agreement between the US Department of Energy and the EPA. JS acknowledges support from NASA grant from NNX14AL84G NASA-CCS

Observing Ocean Acidification from Space

Space-based observations provide synoptic coverage of surface ocean temperature, winds, sea surface height, and color useful to a wide range of oceanographic applications. These measurements are increasingly applied to monitor large-scale environmental and climate processes that can have an impact on important managed marine resources. From observing the development of harmful algal blooms using ocean color, to tracking regions of thermal stress that can induce coral bleaching, satellites are routinely used for environmental monitoring. Here, we demonstrate an approach to monitoring changes in sea surface ocean chemistry in response to ocean acidification as applied to the Greater Caribbean Region. It is based on establishing regional empirical algorithms that combine parameters measured in situ and remotely sensed observables and then using the high-resolution remotely sensed products. This tool is important for exploring regional to basinwide trends in ocean acidification on seasonal to interannual time scales

Caco 3 precipitation kinetics in waters from the great Bahama bank: : Implications for the relationship between bank hydrochemistry and whitings

The source of whitings on the Great Bahama Bank and their relationship to major changes in the chemistry of Bank waters have been among the longest and most hotly debated topics in carbonate geochemistry. In this paper, we demonstrate that the reaction kinetics of calcite with Bank waters for a given saturation state are similar to, but somewhat slower (2 to 3 times) than with Gulf Stream water. The interpretation of the reaction kinetics of suspended Bank sediment with Bank water requires that the precipitating phase be about twice as soluble as aragonite. Good agreement at equivalent saturation states was found between experimental precipitation rates and those calculated for the rate of change of Bank water chemistry in the region of whitings. These results indicate that the dominant mode of carbonate removal is via precipitation on resuspended sediments rather than the rapid pseudo-homogeneous precipitation of calcium carbonate in the water column resulting in the formation of a whiting. Estimates indicate that single aragonite needles may be resuspended many times over a period of decades during which they experience repeated overgrowth. A major portion (>98%) of suspended calcium carbonate is outside the visually dramatic whitings. Thus, as visually spectacular as they are, whitings do not represent a short-term locally massive precipitation of carbonate on the Great Bahama Bank, nor are they even likely to be the dominant sites of carbonate removal in this region. Although future refinements are needed that include seafloor processes, we have at this point arrived at a mechanistic kinetic model that provides a reasonably quantitative explanation for the hydrochemistry of the carbonate system on the northern Great Bahama Bank

Ocean acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region 1996–2006

The global oceans serve as the largest sustained natural sink for increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. As this CO2 is absorbed by seawater, it not only reacts causing a reduction in seawater pH (or acidification) but also decreases the carbonate mineral saturation state (Ω), which plays an important role in calcification for many marine organisms. Ocean acidification could affect some of the most fundamental biological and geochemical processes of the sea in coming decades. Observations obtained in situ from Volunteer Observing Ships and multiple geochemical surveys have been extended using satellite remote sensing and modeled environmental parameters to derive estimates of sea‐surface alkalinity (AT) and carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2,sw). Pairing estimates of AT and pCO2,sw have permitted characterization of the changes in sea‐surface Ω, which have transpired over the past decade throughout the Greater Caribbean Region as a consequence of ocean acidification. The results reveal considerable spatial and temporal variability throughout the region. Despite this variability, we observed a strong secular decrease in aragonite saturation state (Ωarg) at a rate of approximately −0.012 ± 0.001 Ωarg yr−1 (r2 = 0.97, P < 0.001)

Growth Rates of Florida Corals from 1937 to 1996 and Their Response to Climate Change

Ocean acidification causes declines in calcification rates of corals because of decreasing aragonite saturation states (Ωarag). Recent evidence also indicates that increasing sea surface temperatures may have already reduced growth and calcification rates because of the stenothermic threshold of localized coral populations. Density banding in coral skeletons provides a record of growth over the coral\u27s lifespan. Here we present coral extension, bulk density and calcification master chronologies from seven subtropical corals (Montastraea faveolata) located in the Florida Keys, USA with a 60-year common period, 1937–1996. Linear trends indicate that extension increased, density decreased and calcification remained stable while the most recent decade was not significantly different than decadal averages over the preceding 50 years for extension and calcification. The results suggest that growth rates in this species of subtropical coral have been tolerant to recent climatic changes up to the time of collection (1996)

Ocean acidification refugia of the Florida Reef Tract.

Ocean acidification (OA) is expected to reduce the calcification rates of marine organisms, yet we have little understanding of how OA will manifest within dynamic, real-world systems. Natural CO(2), alkalinity, and salinity gradients can significantly alter local carbonate chemistry, and thereby create a range of susceptibility for different ecosystems to OA. As such, there is a need to characterize this natural variability of seawater carbonate chemistry, especially within coastal ecosystems. Since 2009, carbonate chemistry data have been collected on the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). During periods of heightened productivity, there is a net uptake of total CO(2) (TCO(2)) which increases aragonite saturation state (Ω(arag)) values on inshore patch reefs of the upper FRT. These waters can exhibit greater Ω(arag) than what has been modeled for the tropical surface ocean during preindustrial times, with mean (± std. error) Ω(arag)-values in spring = 4.69 (±0.101). Conversely, Ω(arag)-values on offshore reefs generally represent oceanic carbonate chemistries consistent with present day tropical surface ocean conditions. This gradient is opposite from what has been reported for other reef environments. We hypothesize this pattern is caused by the photosynthetic uptake of TCO(2) mainly by seagrasses and, to a lesser extent, macroalgae in the inshore waters of the FRT. These inshore reef habitats are therefore potential acidification refugia that are defined not only in a spatial sense, but also in time; coinciding with seasonal productivity dynamics. Coral reefs located within or immediately downstream of seagrass beds may find refuge from OA

Ocean Acidification Refugia of the Florida Reef Tract

Ocean acidification (OA) is expected to reduce the calcification rates of marine organisms, yet we have little understanding of how OA will manifest within dynamic, real-world systems. Natural CO2, alkalinity, and salinity gradients can significantly alter local carbonate chemistry, and thereby create a range of susceptibility for different ecosystems to OA. As such, there is a need to characterize this natural variability of seawater carbonate chemistry, especially within coastal ecosystems. Since 2009, carbonate chemistry data have been collected on the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). During periods of heightened productivity, there is a net uptake of total CO2 (TCO2) which increases aragonite saturation state (Omega(arag)) values on inshore patch reefs of the upper FRT. These waters can exhibit greater Omega(arag) than what has been modeled for the tropical surface ocean during preindustrial times, with mean (+/- std. error) Omega(arag)-values in spring = 4.69 (+/- 0.101). Conversely, Omega(arag)-values on offshore reefs generally represent oceanic carbonate chemistries consistent with present day tropical surface ocean conditions. This gradient is opposite from what has been reported for other reef environments. We hypothesize this pattern is caused by the photosynthetic uptake of TCO2 mainly by seagrasses and, to a lesser extent, macroalgae in the inshore waters of the FRT. These inshore reef habitats are therefore potential acidification refugia that are defined not only in a spatial sense, but also in time; coinciding with seasonal productivity dynamics. Coral reefs located within or immediately downstream of seagrass beds may find refuge from OA

Large decadal changes in air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Caribbean Sea

Sixteen years of surface water CO2 data from autonomous systems on cruise ships sailing in the Caribbean Sea and Western North Atlantic show marked changes on interannual timescales. The measured changes in fugacity (≈partial pressure) of CO2 in surface water, fCO2w, are based on over a million observations. Seasonally the patterns are similar to other oligotrophic subtropical regions with an amplitude of fCO2w of ≈40 μatm with low wintertime values, causing the area to be a sink, and high summertime values making it a source of CO2 to the atmosphere. On annual scales there was negligible increase of fCO2w from 2002 to 2010 and a rapid increase from 2010 to 2018. Correspondingly, the trend of air‐sea CO2 flux from 2002 to 2010 was strongly negative (increasing uptake or sink) at −0.05 ± 0.01 (mol m−2 year−1) year−1 and positive (decreasing uptake) at 0.02 ± 0.02 (mol m−2 year−1) year−1 from 2010‐2018. For the whole period from 2002 to 2018, the fCO2w lagged the atmospheric CO2 increase by 24 %, causing an increase in CO2 uptake. The average flux into the ocean for the 16 years is −0.20 ± 0.16 mol m−2 year−1 with the uncertainty reflecting the standard deviation in annual means. The change in multiannual trend in fCO2w is modulated by several factors, notably changes in sea surface temperature and ocean mixed layer depth that, in turn, affected the physical and biological processes controlling fCO2w