GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Changes

We describe the current GISS analysis of surface temperature change based primarily on meteorological station measurements. The global surface temperature in 1998 was the warmest in the period of instrumental data. The rate of temperature change is higher in the past 25 years than at any previous time in the period of instrumental data. The warmth of 1998 is too large and pervasive to be fully accounted for by the recent El Nino, suggesting that global temperature may have moved to a higher level, analogous to the increase that occurred in the late 1970s. The warming in the United States over the past 50 years is smaller than in most of the world, and over that period there is a slight cooling trend in the Eastern United States and the neighboring Atlantic ocean. The spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature change suggest that more than one mechanism is involved in this regional cooling

Early identification of children with developmental delay and behavioural problems according to parents concerns in the Republic of Serbia

The main goal of this research was to describe the type and level of parents' concerns about child development and behaviour according to the PEDS test (Parents' Evaluation of Developmental Status). The sample included 289 parents of children from three to seven years of age, from two preschool institutions in Serbia. A significantly high correlation was determined between parents' general concerns and expressed concerns with regard to behaviour ((2)=17.86, df=2, p lt .001) and getting along with others ((2)=22.57, df=2, p lt .000). A marginally significant correlation was determined between parents' general concerns and manifested concerns with regard to fine motor skills ((2)=5.90, df=2, p=.052), as well as expressive language ((2)=5.858, df=2, p=.053). According to the criteria of PEDS test, this research identified 56.4% of children whose development needed to be monitored, 27.7% of children who needed to be referred for detailed diagnostic procedures, and 1.7% who needed to be included in treatment or special education support.This is the peer‐reviewed version of the article: Ilić, S. B.; Nikolić, S. J.; Ilić-Stošović, D. D.; Golubović, Š. S. Early Identification of Children with Developmental Delay and Behavioural Problems According to Parents Concerns in the Republic of Serbia. Early Child Development and Care 2020, 190 (16), 2605–2611. [https://doi.org/10.1080/03004430.2019.1595610

Effectiveness of the ADEC as a level 2 screening test for young children with suspected autism spectrum disorders in a clinical setting

Background The Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC) is a clinician-administered, Level 2 screening tool. A retrospective file audit was used to investigate its clinical effectiveness. Method Toddlers referred to an Australian child development service between 2008 and 2010 (N?=?53, M age?=?32.2 months) were screened with the ADEC. Their medical records were reviewed in 2013 when their mean age was 74.5 months, and the original ADEC screening results were compared with later diagnostic outcomes. Results The ADEC had good sensitivity (87.5%) and moderate specificity (62%). Three behaviours predicted autism spectrum disorders (ASDs): response to name, gaze switching, and gaze monitoring (p???.001). Conclusions The ADEC shows promise as a screening tool that can discriminate between young children with ASDs and those who have specific communication disorders or developmental delays that persist into middle childhood but who do not meet the criteria for ASDs

Vulnerability and Mitigation Studies for Infrastructure

The summary of this presentation is that: (1) We do end-to-end systems analysis for infrastructure protection; (2) LLNL brings interdisciplinary subject matter expertise to infrastructure and explosive analysis; (3) LLNL brings high-fidelity modeling capabilities to infrastructure analysis for use on high performance platforms; and (4) LLNL analysis of infrastructure provides information that customers and stakeholders act on

Underwater Blast Experiments and Modeling for Shock Mitigation

A simple but novel mitigation concept to enforce standoff distance and reduce shock loading on a vertical, partially-submerged structure is evaluated using scaled aquarium experiments and numerical modeling. Scaled, water tamped explosive experiments were performed using three gallon aquariums. The effectiveness of different mitigation configurations, including air-filled media and an air gap, is assessed relative to an unmitigated detonation using the same charge weight and standoff distance. Experiments using an air-filled media mitigation concept were found to effectively dampen the explosive response of the aluminum plate and reduce the final displacement at plate center by approximately half. The finite element model used for the initial experimental design compares very well to the experimental DIC results both spatially and temporally. Details of the experiment and finite element aquarium models are described including the boundary conditions, Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques, detonation models, experimental design and test diagnostics

Reliability and Validity of the KIPPPI: An Early Detection Tool for Psychosocial Problems in Toddlers

Background: The KIPPPI (Brief Instrument Psychological and Pedagogical Problem Inventory) is a Dutch questionnaire that measures psychosocial and pedagogical problems in 2-year olds and consists of a KIPPPI Total score, Wellbeing scale, Competence scale, and Autonomy scale. This study examined the reliability, validity, screening accuracy and clinical application of the KIPPPI. Methods: Parents of 5959 2-year-old children in the Rotterdam area, the Netherlands, were invited to participate in the study. Parents of 3164 children (53.1% of all invited parents) completed the questionnaire. The internal consistency was evaluated and in subsamples the test-retest reliability and concurrent validity with regard to the Child Behavioral Checklist (CBCL). Discriminative validity was evaluated by comparing scores of parents who worried about their child's upbringing and parent's that did not. Screening accuracy of the KIPPPI was evaluated against the CBCL by calculating the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. The clinical application was evaluated by the relation between KIPPPI scores and the clinical decision made by the child health professionals. Results: Psychometric properties of the KIPPPI Total score, Wellbeing scale, Competence scale and Autonomy scale were respectively: Cronbach's alphas: 0.88, 0.86, 0.83, 0.58. Test-rete

Impact of WRF Physics and Grid Resolution on Low-level Wind Prediction: Towards the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used in short-range simulations to explore the sensitivity of model physics and horizontal grid resolution. We choose five events with the clear-sky conditions to study the impact of different planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface and soil-layer physics on low-level wind forecast for two wind farms; one in California (CA) and the other in Texas (TX). Short-range simulations are validated with field measurements. Results indicate that the forecast error of the CA case decreases with increasing grid resolution due to the improved representation of valley winds. Besides, the model physics configuration has a significant impact on the forecast error at this location. In contrast, the forecast error of the TX case exhibits little dependence on grid resolution and is relatively independent of physics configuration. Therefore, the occurrence frequency of lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) at this location is used to determine an optimal model configuration for subsequent decade-scale regional climate model (RCM) simulations. In this study, we perform two sets of 20-year RCM simulations using the data from the NCAR Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations; one set models the present climate and the other simulates the future climate. These RCM simulations will be used to assess the impact of climate change on future wind energy

PBXN-9 Ignition Kinetics and Deflagration Rates

The ignition kinetics and deflagration rates of PBXN-9 were measured using specially designed instruments at LLNL and compared with previous work on similar HMX based materials. Ignition kinetics were measured based on the One Dimensional Time-to-Explosion combined with ALE3D modeling. Results of these experiments indicate that PBXN-9 behaves much like other HMX based materials (i.e. LX-04, LX-07, LX-10 and PBX-9501) and the dominant factor in these experiments is the type of explosive, not the type of binder/plasticizer. In contrast, the deflagration behavior of PBXN-9 is quite different from similar high weight percent HMX based materials (i.e LX-10, LX-07 and PBX-9501). PBXN-9 burns in a laminar manner over the full pressure range studied (0-310 MPa) unlike LX-10, LX-07, and PBX-9501. The difference in deflagration behavior is attributed to the nature of the binder/plasticizer alone or in conjunction with the volume of binder present in PBXN-9

Maternal mental health predicts risk of developmental problems at 3 years of age: follow up of a community based trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Undetected and untreated developmental problems can have a significant economic and social impact on society. Intervention to ameliorate potential developmental problems requires early identification of children at risk of future learning and behaviour difficulties. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of risk for developmental problems among preschool children born to medically low risk women and identify factors that influence outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Mothers who had participated in a prenatal trial were followed up three years post partum to answer a telephone questionnaire. Questions were related to child health and development, child care, medical care, mother's lifestyle, well-being, and parenting style. The main outcome measure was risk for developmental problems using the Parents' Evaluation of Developmental Status (PEDS).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 791 children, 11% were screened by the PEDS to be at high risk for developmental problems at age three. Of these, 43% had previously been referred for assessment. Children most likely to have been referred were those born preterm. Risk factors for delay included: male gender, history of ear infections, a low income environment, and a mother with poor emotional health and a history of abuse. A child with these risk factors was predicted to have a 53% chance of screening at high risk for developmental problems. This predicted probability was reduced to 19% if the child had a mother with good emotional health and no history of abuse.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Over 10% of children were identified as high risk for developmental problems by the screening, and more than half of those had not received a specialist referral. Risk factors for problems included prenatal and perinatal maternal and child factors. Assessment of maternal health and effective screening of child development may increase detection of children at high risk who would benefit from early intervention.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN64070727</p

Autonomy of Nations and Indigenous Peoples and the Environmental Release of Genetically Engineered Animals with Gene Drives

This article contends that the environmental release of genetically engineered (GE) animals with heritable traits that are patented will present a challenge to the efforts of nations and indigenous peoples to engage in self‐determination. The environmental release of such animals has been proposed on the grounds that they could function as public health tools or as solutions to the problem of agricultural insect pests. This article brings into focus two political‐economic‐legal problems that would arise with the environmental release of such organisms. To address those challenges, it is proposed that nations considering the environmental release of GE animals must take into account the underlying circumstances and policy failures that motivate arguments for the use of the modified animals. Moreover, countries must recognize that the UN International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the UN International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights place on them an obligation to ensure that GE animals with patented heritable traits are not released without the substantive consent of the nations or indigenous peoples that could be affected