Weather modelling using a multivariate latent Gaussian model

We propose a vector autoregressive moving average process as a model for daily weather data. For the rainfall variable a monotonic transformation is applied to achieve marginal normality, thus defining a latent variable, with zero rainfall data corresponding to censored values below a threshold. Methodology is presented for model identification, estimation and validation, illustrated using data from Mynefield, Scotland. The new model, a VARMA(2,1) process, fits the data and produces more realistic simulated series than existing methods dur to Richardson (1981) and Peiris and McNicol (1996)

WEATHER MODELLING USING A MULTIVARIATE LATENT GAUSSIAN MODEL

We propose a vector autoregressive moving average process as a model for daily weather data. For the rainfall variable a monotonic transformation is applied to achieve marginal normality, thus defining a latent variable, with zero rainfall data corresponding to censored values below a threshold. Methodology is presented for model identification, estimation and validation, illustrated using data from Mynefield, Scotland. The new model, a VARMA(2,1) process, fits the data and produces more realistic simulated series than existing methods dur to Richardson (1981) and Peiris and McNicol (1996).

Multicentre observational cohort study of NSAIDs as risk factors for postoperative adverse events in gastrointestinal surgery

Introduction: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are recommended as postoperative analgesia by the Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Society. Recent studies have raised concerns that NSAID administration following colorectal anastomosis may be associated with increased risk of anastomotic leak. This multicentre study aims to determine NSAIDs' safety profile following gastrointestinal resection. Methods and analysis: This prospective, multicentre cohort study will be performed over a 2-week period utilising a collaborative methodology. Consecutive adults undergoing open or laparoscopic, elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection will be included. The primary end point will be the 30-day morbidity, assessed using the Clavien-Dindo classification. This study will be disseminated through medical student networks, with an anticipated recruitment of at least 900 patients. The study will be powered to detect a 10% increase in complication rates with NSAID use. Ethics and dissemination: Following the Research Ethics Committee Chairperson's review, a formal waiver was received. This study will be registered as a clinical audit or service evaluation at each participating hospital. Dissemination will take place through previously described novel research collaborative networks

Colour displays for categorical images

We propose a method for identifying a set of colours for displaying 2-D and 3-D categorical images when the categories are unordered labels. The principle is to find maximally distinct sets of colours. We either generate colours sequentially, to maximise the dissimilarity or distance between a new colour and the set of colours already chosen, or use a simulated annealing algorithm to find a set of colours of specified size. In both cases, we use a Euclidean metric on the perceptual colour space, CIE-LAB, to specify distances

Promoting research and audit at medical school: evaluating the educational impact of participation in a student-led national collaborative study

Medical students often struggle to engage in extra-curricular research and audit. The Student Audit and Research in Surgery (STARSurg) network is a novel student-led, national research collaborative. Student collaborators contribute data to national, clinical studies while gaining an understanding of audit and research methodology and ethical principles. This study aimed to evaluate the educational impact of participation

Health-related quality of life in children with perceived and diagnosed food hypersensitivity

The few studies measuring health-related quality of life (HRQL) in food hypersensitivity (FHS) have found significantly reduced HRQL in patients and their families, particularly in the areas of family and social activities, emotional issues and family economy. One aspect that has not been studied is the effect of suspected FHS (food allergy/intolerance) vs. diagnosed FHS [based on a food challenge or a positive skin prick test (SPT) and good clinical history] on HRQL. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the HRQL in children with a proven diagnosis of FHS vs. those with reported FHS.MethodsWe have utilized the 10-yr old follow-up cohort of the Food Allergy and Intolerance Research (FAIR) study from the Isle of Wight and assessed the child's HRQL with the Food Allergy Quality of Life Questionnaire – Parent form (FAQLQ-PF) which measures HRQL using four domains: food anxiety, emotional impact, social and dietary limitation.ResultsWhen comparing the two groups of children (proven FHS vs. perceived FHS), no difference in HRQL was found, although food anxiety showed a p-value of (p = 0.062). This was also the case when correcting for all confounding factors identified.ConclusionWe have found that having a clear diagnosis of FHS is not an independent predictor of HRQL. Future studies are required comparing two more similar groups. We also need to focus more on the effect of continuous input from the multidisciplinary team on HRQL and which particular factors of FHS management affect HRQL

Expression of hepatocyte growth factor-like protein in human wound tissue and its biological functionality in human keratinocytes

Hepatocyte growth factor-like protein (HGFl) and its receptor, Recepteur d'Origine Nantais (RON), have been implicated in the development of wound chronicity. HGFl and RON expression was detected in acute wound tissue, chronic wound tissue and in normal skin using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Q-PCR). HGFl and RON expression was also assessed in chronic healing and chronic non-healing wound tissues using Q-PCR and immunohistochemical staining. Expression was similarly detected in the HaCaT immortalized human keratinocyte cell line using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). rhHGFl was used to assess the impact of this molecule on HaCaT cell functionality using in vitro growth assays and electric cell-substrate impendence sensing (ECIS) migration assays. HGFl and RON transcript expression were significantly increased in acute wound tissue compared to chronic wound tissue and were also elevated, though non-significantly, in comparison to normal skin. Minimal expression was seen in both healing and non-healing chronic wounds. Treatment of HaCaT cells with rhHGFl had no effect on growth rates but did enhance cell migration. This effect was abolished by the addition of a phospholipase C gamma (PLCγ) small molecule inhibitor. The increased expression of HGFl and RON in acute, healing wounds and the pro-migratory effect of HGFl in an in vitro human keratinocyte model, may indicate a role for HGFl in active wound healing

Crop growth models for the -omics era: the EU-SPICY project

The prediction of phenotypic responses from genetic and environmental information is an area of active research in genetics, physiology and statistics. Rapidly increasing amounts of phenotypic information become available as a consequence of high throughput phenotyping techniques, while more and cheaper genotypic data follow from the development of new genotyping platforms. , A wide array of -omics data can be generated linking genotype and phenotype. Continuous monitoring of environmental conditions has become an accessible option. This wealth of data requires a drastic rethinking of the traditional quantitative genetic approach to modeling phenotypic variation in terms of genetic and environmental differences. Where in the past a single phenotypic trait was partitioned in a genetic and environmental component by analysis of variance techniques, nowadays we desire to model multiple, interrelated and often time dependent, phenotypic traits as a function of genes (QTLs) and environmental inputs, while we would like to include transcription information as well. The EU project 'Smart tools for Prediction and Improvement of Crop Yield' (KBBE-2008-211347), or SPICY, aims at the development of genotype-to-phenotype models that fully integrate genetic, genomic, physiological and environmental information to achieve accurate phenotypic predictions across a wide variety of genetic and environmental configurations. Pepper (Capsicum annuum) is chosen as the model crop, because of the availability of genetically characterized populations and of generic models for continuous crop growth and greenhouse production. In the presentation the objectives and structure of SPICY as well as its philosophy will be discussed