Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

Background African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in several countries of Africa and may pose a risk to all pig producing areas on the continent. Official ASF reporting is often rare and there remains limited awareness of the continent-wide distribution of the disease. In the absence of accurate ASF outbreak data and few quantitative studies on the epidemiology of the disease in Africa, we used spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to derive predictions of the continental distribution of suitability for ASF persistence in domestic pig populations as part of sylvatic or domestic transmission cycles. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in defining suitability, we modelled decisions within the MCDA framework using a stochastic approach. The predictive performance of suitability estimates was assessed via a partial ROC analysis using ASF outbreak data reported to the OIE since 2005. Results Outputs from the spatial MCDA indicate that large areas of sub-Saharan Africa may be suitable for ASF persistence as part of either domestic or sylvatic transmission cycles. Areas with high suitability for pig to pig transmission (‘domestic cycles’) were estimated to occur throughout sub-Saharan Africa, whilst areas with high suitability for introduction from wildlife reservoirs (‘sylvatic cycles’) were found predominantly in East, Central and Southern Africa. Based on average AUC ratios from the partial ROC analysis, the predictive ability of suitability estimates for domestic cycles alone was considerably higher than suitability estimates for sylvatic cycles alone, or domestic and sylvatic cycles in combination. Conclusions This study provides the first standardised estimates of the distribution of suitability for ASF transmission associated with domestic and sylvatic cycles in Africa. We provide further evidence for the utility of knowledge-driven risk mapping in animal health, particularly in data-sparse environments.</p

Temperature-dependent expression of a collagen splicing defect in the fibroblasts of a patient with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome type VII.

Abstract In this article we report the characterization of the molecular lesion in a patient with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome Type VII and provide evidence that a de novo substitution of the last nucleotide of exon 6 in one allele of the pro-alpha 2(I) collagen gene produces normally spliced mRNA and transcripts from which exon 6 sequences have been outspliced as well. Unexpectedly, the expression of the alternative splicing was found to be temperature-dependent, for missplicing in cellula is effectively abolished at 31 degrees C and gradually increases to 100% at 39 degrees C. In contrast, in a similar patient harboring a substitution in the obligatory GT dinucleotide of the 5' splice site of intron 6, complete outsplicing of exon 6 sequences was found at all temperatures

Household socio-economic position and individual infectious disease risk in rural Kenya

The importance of household socio-economic position (SEP) in shaping individual infectious disease risk is increasingly recognised, particularly in low income settings. However, few studies have measured the extent to which this association is consistent for the range of pathogens that are typically endemic among the rural poor in the tropics. This cross-sectional study assessed the relationship between SEP and human infection within a single community in western Kenya using a set of pathogens with diverse transmission routes. The relationships between household SEP and individual infection with Plasmodium falciparum, hookworm (Ancylostoma duodenale and/or Necator americanus), Entamoeba histolytica/dispar, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and HIV, and co-infections between hookworm, P. falciparum and E. histolytica/dispar, were assessed using multivariable logistic and multinomial regression. Individuals in households with the lowest SEP were at greatest risk of infection with P. falciparum, hookworm and E. histolytica/dispar, as well as co-infection with each pathogen. Infection with M. tuberculosis, by contrast, was most likely in individuals living in households with the highest SEP. There was no evidence of a relationship between individual HIV infection and household SEP. We demonstrate the existence of a household socio-economic gradient within a rural farming community in Kenya which impacts upon individual infectious disease risk. Structural adjustments that seek to reduce poverty, and therefore the socio-economic inequalities that exist in this community, would be expected to substantially reduce overall infectious disease burden. However, policy makers and researchers should be aware that heterogeneous relationships can exist between household SEP and infection risk for different pathogens in low income settings

Environmental predictors of bovine Eimeria infection in western Kenya

Eimeriosis is caused by a protozoan infection affecting most domestic animal species. Outbreaks in cattle are associated with various environmental factors in temperate climates but limited work has been done in tropical settings. The objective of this work was to determine the prevalence and environmental factors associated with bovine Eimeria spp. infection in a mixed farming area of western Kenya. A total of 983 cattle were sampled from 226 cattle-keeping households. Faecal samples were collected directly from the rectum via digital extraction and analysed for the presence of Eimeria spp. infection using the MacMaster technique. Individual and household level predictors of infection were explored using mixed effects logistic regression. The prevalence of individual animal Eimeria infection was 32.8% (95% CI 29.9–35.9). A positive linear relationship was found between risk of Eimeria infection and increasing temperature (OR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.06–1.86) and distance to areas at risk of flooding (OR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.17–1.91). There was weak evidence of non-linear relationship between Eimeria infection and the proportion of the area around a household that was classified as swamp (OR = 1.12, 95% CI 0.87–1.44; OR (quadratic term) = 0.85, 95% CI 0.73–1.00), and the sand content of the soil (OR = 1.18, 95% CI 0.91–1.53; OR (quadratic term) = 1.1, 95% CI 0.99–1.23). The risk of animal Eimeria spp. infection is influenced by a number of climatic and soil-associated conditions.</p