Population dynamic regulators in an empirical predator-prey system

Capelin (Mallotus villosus) is a short-lived (1–4 years) fish species, that plays a crucial role by dominating the intermediate trophic level in the Barents Sea. Several episodes of extreme biomass decline (collapse) have been observed during the last three decades. We postulate that these collapses might be regulated by food availability (bottom-up effect) and/or by time discrepancy between capelin feeding and abundance of its prey (match-mismatch hypothesis). This paper investigates our postulate using a model consisting of a set of coupled differential equations to describe the predator-prey system, with a single delay term, , in description of the predator dynamics. We derive theoretical conditions on , as well as determine how changes in these conditions define different stability regimes of the system. Unconstrained optimization is used to calculate optimal model parameters by fitting the predator-prey model to empirical data. The optimization results are combined with those from the theoretical analysis, to make inference about the empirical system stability. Our results show that Hopf bifurcation occurs in the predatory-prey system when exceeds a theoretically derived value . This value represents the critical time for prey availability in advance of the optimal predator growth period.Set into an ecological context, our findings provide mathematical evidence for validity of the match-mismatch hypothesis and a bottom-up effect for capelin.publishedVersio

Final Report of the Fifth Meeting of Scientific Experts on Fish Stocks in the Central Arctic Ocean

This report provides a summary of the 5th meeting of scientific experts on Fish Stocks in the Central Arctic Ocean (FiSCAO) on October 24‐26, 2017, in Ottawa, Canada. At the request of the 10 parties negotiating on an agreement to prevent unregulated commercial fishing in the High Seas portion of the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO), participants of the 5th FiSCAO meeting were tasked with addressing four Terms of Reference, summarized below: ToR 1. Design a 1‐3 year long mapping program. ToR 2. Design a monitoring program. ToR 3. Identify human, financial, vessel/equipment resources needed for mapping and monitoring. ToR 4. Develop data collection, sharing, and hosting protocols that outline the details of what and how data shall be collected, shared, and hosted for consideration by the Parties. The 5th FiSCAO meeting included scientific representatives from seven states including Canada, the People's Republic of China, the European Union, Iceland, the Republic of Korea, the Kingdom of Norway and the United States of America. The meeting also included representatives from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) and the Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) and Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) working groups. The report summarizes the elements for collecting baseline data (i.e., a mapping program) in the high seas CAO to achieve the goals of documenting species distributions, relative abundances and key ecosystem parameters (ToR 1). The mapping program describes the priority areas to sample, the types of data to collect and possible data collection approaches to employ. Participants emphasized that existing planned surveys are very limited, and that significant dedicated resources will be required to implement the mapping program. The report outlines a strategy for monitoring indicators of fish stocks and ecosystem components (ToR 2). The report includes a list of existing monitoring programs and a prioritized list of indicators to detect environmental change in the high seas CAO. Further refinement of a monitoring program will use information from the mapping program (ToR 1). Participants emphasized the need to begin monitoring as soon as possible and that additional research is required to operationalize monitoring indicators. The report summarizes the preliminary cost estimates (ToR 3) to implement a mapping program to collect data in the high seas portion of the CAO using a vessel of opportunity and in the Pacific Gateway region of the CAO using an independently‐organized survey. Cost implications for the monitoring program and other scientific activities are also listed (e.g., data analysis, data management). The report includes a draft data sharing policy as the foundation for a future data sharing protocol, including the technical specifications for data sharing (ToR 4). The development of the data sharing protocol will require negotiation and legal review among the participating states. A data management and data sharing pilot study on a CAO fish database is suggested to test a framework

Density‐ and size‐dependent mortality in fish early life stages

The importance of survival and growth variations early in life for population dynamics depends on the degrees of compensatory density dependence and size dependence in survival at later life stages. Quantifying density‐ and size‐dependent mortality at different juvenile stages is therefore important to understand and potentially predict the recruitment to the population. We applied a statistical state‐space modelling approach to analyse time series of abundance and mean body size of larval and juvenile fish. The focus was to identify the importance of abundance and body size for growth and survival through successive larval and juvenile age intervals, and to quantify how the dynamics propagate through the early life to influence recruitment. We thus identified both relevant ages and mechanisms (i.e. density dependence and size dependence in survival and growth) linking recruitment variability to early life dynamics. The analysis was conducted on six economically and ecologically important fish populations from cold temperate and sub‐arctic marine ecosystems. Our results underscore the importance of size for survival early in life. The comparative analysis suggests that size‐dependent mortality and density‐dependent growth frequently occur at a transition from pelagic to demersal habitats, which may be linked to competition for suitable habitat. The generality of this hypothesis warrants testing in future research.publishedVersio

Innspill til høring - Forslag til program for konsekvensutredning for mineralvirksomhet på norsk sokkel

Rapporten er et høringssvar sendt til Olje- og Energidepartementet i forbindelse med et forslag til konsekvensutredningsprogram for mineralvirksomhet på norsk kontinentalsokkel. I høringssvaret påpeker Havforskningsinstituttet at det er stor mangel på kunnskap, både med hensyn til biomangfold og økologiske forhold, men også når det gjelder teknologien som vil anvendes for utvinning av mineraler og metaller på havbunnen. Denne kunnskapsmangelen representerer en usikkerhet som bør synliggjøres i konsekvensutredningen, blant annet gjennom en risikoanalyse. Havforskningsinstituttet påpeker også at ulike initiativ når det gjelder kunnskapsinnhenting burde vært ferdigstilt før gjennomføringen av høringen. En grundigere oppsummering av rapportens innhold er gitt i første kapittel.publishedVersio

Biomass of Scyphozoan Jellyfish, and Its Spatial Association with 0-Group Fish in the Barents Sea

An 0-group fish survey is conducted annually in the Barents Sea in order to estimate fish population abundance. Data on jellyfish by-catch have been recorded since 1980, although this dataset has never been analysed. In recent years, however, the ecological importance of jellyfish medusae has become widely recognized. In this paper the biomass of jellyfish (medusae) in 0–60 m depths is calculated for the period 1980–2010. During this period the climate changed from cold to warm, and changes in zooplankton and fish distribution and abundance were observed. This paper discusses the less well known ecosystem component; jellyfish medusae within the Phylum Cnidaria, and their spatial and temporal variation. The long term average was ca. 9×108 kg, with some years showing biomasses in excess of 5×109 kg. The biomasses were low during 1980s, increased during 1990s, and were highest in early 2000s with a subsequent decline. The bulk of the jellyfish were observed in the central parts of the Barents Sea, which is a core area for most 0-group fishes. Jellyfish were associated with haddock in the western area, with haddock and herring in the central and coastal area, and with capelin in the northern area of the Barents Sea. The jellyfish were present in the temperature interval 1°C<T<10°C, with peak densities at ca. 5.5°C, and the greatest proportion of the jellyfish occurring between 4.0–7.0°C. It seems that the ongoing warming trend may be favourable for Barents Sea jellyfish medusae; however their biomass has showed a recent moderate decline during years with record high temperatures in the Barents Sea. Jellyfish are undoubtedly an important component of the Barents Sea ecosystem, and the data presented here represent the best summary of jellyfish biomass and distribution yet published for the region

Population dynamic regulators in an empirical predator-prey system

Capelin (Mallotus villosus) is a short-lived (1–4 years) fish species, that plays a crucial role by dominating the intermediate trophic level in the Barents Sea. Several episodes of extreme biomass decline (collapse) have been observed during the last three decades. We postulate that these collapses might be regulated by food availability (bottom-up effect) and/or by time discrepancy between capelin feeding and abundance of its prey (match-mismatch hypothesis). This paper investigates our postulate using a model consisting of a set of coupled differential equations to describe the predator-prey system, with a single delay term, T , in description of the predator dynamics. We derive theoretical conditions on T, as well as determine how changes in these conditions define different stability regimes of the system. Unconstrained optimization is used to calculate optimal model parameters by fitting the predator-prey model to empirical data. The optimization results are combined with those from the theoretical analysis, to make inference about the empirical system stability. Our results show that Hopf bifurcation occurs in the predatory-prey system when T exceeds a theoretically derived value T* > 0. This value represents the critical time for prey availability in advance of the optimal predator growth period.Set into an ecological context, our findings provide mathematical evidence for validity of the match-mismatch hypothesis and a bottom-up effect for capelin