Agricultural Intensification Reduces the Portfolio of Wetland Ecosystem Services: European Danube River Lowlands as a Global Biodiversity Hotspot

Anthropogenic landscape transformations have promoted the provision of ecosystem services (ES) at the expense of other ES, biodiversity, and human well-being. We analysed the transformation portfolios of ES provisions, the costs of transformation, and the rivalry between ES categories and biodiversity conservation during the pre-communist and communist eras. We also examined EU influences in Romania’s Danube River lowlands. The environmental history of socialecological systems was used to: (1) map transformations of natural environments; (2) analyse the outputs of human modes of production, including crops, fish, timber, and livestock, using economic valuation methods and by appropriating the primary means of production; and (3) describe ideologies and values as drivers of ES transformations. During the communist era, the surface area of the agricultural land increased at the expense of natural ecosystems. This resulted in increased provisions being made for crops and timber at the expense of the fish supply; it also caused a reduction in livestock. The costs of land reclamation, hydrotechnical works, and the use of fertilizers and pesticides, resulted in a net annual loss of EUR 36 million for the entire case study area, disregarding the losses of other ES. Achieving a balanced portfolio of ES requires a discussion about the need for nature restoration, transdisciplinary social-ecological research, and the identification of key leverage points.publishedVersio

Operationalising ecosystem service assessment in Bayesian Belief Networks: experiences within the OpenNESS project

Nine Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were developed within the OpenNESS project specifically for modelling ecosystem services for case study applications. The novelty of the method, its ability to explore problems, to address uncertainty, and to facilitate stakeholder interaction in the process were all reasons for choosing BBNs. Most case studies had some local expertise on BBNs to assist them, and all used expert opinion as well as data to help develop the dependences in the BBNs. In terms of the decision scope of the work, all case studies were moving from explorative and informative uses towards decisive, but none were yet being used for decision-making. Three applications incorporated BBNs with GIS where the spatial component of the management was critical, but several concerns about estimating uncertainty with spatial modelling approaches are discussed. The tool proved to be very flexible and, particularly with its web interface, was an asset when working with stakeholders to facilitate exploration of outcomes, knowledge elicitation and social learning. BBNs were rated as very useful and widely applicable by the case studies that used them, but further improvements in software and more training were also deemed necessary