COVID 19: Black Swan or clumsy use?

Aim: “Black Swan” an unexpected and catastrophic event characterized by three conditions: the anomalous and exceptional value, the extreme impact, and predictability a posteriori. On many sides - by politicians, commentators, scientists - there have been attempts to give the COVID-19 pandemic event the meaning of Black Swan. In reality, one should wonder if the black swan was not, instead (or even), the way the epidemic was handled. In Italy, an unreasonable use of a two-step protocol - IgM/IgG anti-COVID followed by RT-PCR in the serologically positive only has caused considerable uncertainty, particularly relevant in measures for maintenance or readmission to work of health personnel. Subjects and Methods: we calculated for each serological test the False Negative rate (FN) related to their Negative Predictive Value (NPV) and False Omission Rate (for) in different prevalence values. Since FN rate rises as prevalence increases, the resulting number might consider an estimate of health care providers admitted to caring services, despite their infectivity. Results: This protocol could be affected by serious uncertainties arising from the analytical limitations of the tests used. To quantify this defect, we evaluated the analytical specifications of serological tests under different prevalence conditions. Conclusion: In conclusion, although laboratory diagnostics represent a useful tool, it can only be used for epidemiological purposes and not to provide healthy pass

Emergency treatment of complicated colorectal cancer

Aim: To find evidence to suggest the best approach in patients admitted as an emergency for complicated colorectal cancer. Methods: The medical records of 131 patients admitted as an emergency with an obstructing, perforated, or bleeding colorectal cancer to Noble’s Hospital, Isle of Man, and the Umberto I University Hospital, Rome, were retrospectively evaluated. Patients were divided in 3 groups on the basis of the emergency treatment they received, namely 1) immediate resection, 2) damage control procedure and elective or semielective resection, and 3) no radical treatment. Demographic variables, clinical data, and treatment data were considered, and formed the basis for the comparison of groups. Primary endpoints were 90-day mortality and morbidity. Secondary endpoints were length of stay, number of lymph nodes analyzed, rate of radical R0 resections, and the number of patients who had chemoradiotherapy. Results: Forty-two patients did not have any radical treatment because the cancer was too advanced or they were too ill to tolerate an operation, 78 patients had immediate resection and 11 had damage control followed by elective resection. There was no statistically significant difference between immediate resections and 2-stage treatment in 90-day mortality and morbidity (mortality: 15.4% vs 0%; morbidity: 26.9% vs 27.3%), number of nodes retrieved (16.6±9.4 vs 14.9±5.7), and rate of R0 resections (84.6% vs 90.9%), but mortality was slightly higher in patients who underwent immediate resection. The patients who underwent staged treatment had a higher possibility of receiving a laparoscopic resection (11.5% vs 36.4%). Conclusion: The present study failed to demonstrate a clear superiority of one treatment with respect to the other, even if there is an interesting trend favoring staged resection

Biological compatibility between two temperate lineages of brown dog ticks, Rhipicephalus sanguineus (sensu lato)

Background: The brown dog tick Rhipicephalus sanguineus (sensu stricto) is reputed to be the most widespread tick of domestic dogs worldwide and has also been implicated in the transmission of many pathogens to dogs and humans. For more than two centuries, Rh. sanguineus (s.s.) was regarded as a single taxon, even considering its poor original description and the inexistence of a type specimen. However, genetic and crossbreeding experiments have indicated the existence of at least two distinct taxa within this name: the so-called "temperate" and "tropical" lineages of Rh. sanguineus (sensu lato). Recent genetic studies have also demonstrated the existence of additional lineages of Rh. sanguineus (s.l.) in Europe and Asia. Herein, we assessed the biological compatibility between two lineages of Rh. sanguineus (s.l.) found in southern Europe, namely Rhipicephalus sp. I (from Italy) and Rhipicephalus sp. II (from Portugal). Methods: Ticks morphologically identified as Rh. sanguineus (s.l.) were collected in southern Portugal and southern Italy. Tick colonies were established and crossbreeding experiments conducted. Morphological, biological and genetic analyses were conducted. Results: Crossbreeding experiments confirmed that ticks from the two studied lineages were able to mate and generate fertile hybrids. Hybrid adult ticks always presented the same genotype of the mother, confirming maternal inheritance of mtDNA. However, larvae and nymphs originated from Rhipicephalus sp. I females presented mtDNA genotype of either Rhipicephalus sp. I or Rhipicephalus sp. II, suggesting the occurrence of paternal inheritance or mitochondrial heteroplasmy. While biologically compatible, these lineages are distinct genetically and phenotypically. Conclusions: The temperate lineages of Rh. sanguineus (s.l.) studied herein are biologically compatible and genetic data obtained from both pure and hybrid lines indicate the occurrence of paternal inheritance or mitochondrial heteroplasmy. This study opens new research avenues and raises question regarding the usefulness of genetic data and crossbreeding experiments as criteria for the definition of cryptic species in ticks

Analysis and Acoustic Correction of a Contemporary Italian Church

Abstract Nowadays, architects and designers build new churches primarily considering the architectural shape to emphasize the iconographic message without sufficiently investigating the acoustic climate. In many cases, designers propose elliptical or irregular geometries for the shapes of these buildings and, in addition, the furniture of indoor surfaces have unsuitable absorption and diffusivity coefficients. Thereby, it can be observed the arise of serious acoustical problems such as standing waves, flutter echo, sound focusing and intensive late reflections (greater than 100 ms) which seriously decrease speech intelligibility and diminish the effectiveness of the early sound energy. This paper presents the results of an acoustic survey on the Catholic Church "Invaluable Blood of Jesus", situated in Ragusa (Italy), which is characterized by many problems mentioned above. During last years, some refurbishment interventions have attempted to reduce the acoustic discomfort, but an uncorrected approach has completely compromised the speech intelligibility, especially during liturgical functions. Recently, the authors have been involved to propose suitable interventions for improving the acoustic quality of this environment. Preliminarily, a measurement survey was conducted to evaluate the main acoustic indices (RT60, STI, EDT, C80, D50) and portray the current acoustic climate. After that, it was developed an acoustic computer simulation on a 3D model of the church, in order to calibrate the model comparing measured and simulated data. This procedure allowed testing the reliability and accuracy of the model. Finally, We propose two different interventions of acoustic correction. Globally it is possible to obtain an improvement of RT60 from 7.3 to 2.5 s at 1 kHz and STI increases from 33% to 40%, at 1000 Hz

A decision support system (GesCoN) for managing fertigation in vegetable crops. Part II-model calibration and validation under different environmental growing conditions on field grown tomato

The GesCoN model was evaluated for its capability to simulate growth, nitrogen uptake, and productivity of open field tomato grown under different environmental and cultural conditions. Five datasets collected from experimental trials carried out in Foggia (IT) were used for calibration and 13 datasets collected from trials conducted in Foggia, Perugia (IT), and Florida (USA) were used for validation. The goodness of fitting was performed by comparing the observed and simulated shoot dry weight (SDW) and N crop uptake during crop seasons, total dry weight (TDW), N uptake and fresh yield (TFY). In SDW model calibration, the relative RMSE values fell within the good 10-15% range, percent BIAS (PBIAS) ranged between -11.5 and 7.4%. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was very close to the optimal value 1. In the N uptake calibration RRMSE and PBIAS were very low (7%, and -1.78, respectively) and NSE close to 1. The validation of SDW (RRMSE = 16.7%; NSE = 0.96) and N uptake (RRMSE = 16.8%; NSE = 0.96) showed the good accuracy of GesCoN. A model under- or overestimation of the SDW and N uptake occurred when higher or a lower N rates and/or a more or less efficient system were used compared to the calibration trial. The in-season adjustment, using the "SDWcheck" procedure, greatly improved model simulations both in the calibration and in the validation phases. The TFY prediction was quite good except in Florida, where a large overestimation (+16%) was linked to a different harvest index (0.53) compared to the cultivars used for model calibration and validation in Italian areas. The soil water content at the 10-30 cm depth appears to be well-simulated by the software, and the GesCoN proved to be able to adaptively control potential yield and DW accumulation under limited N soil availability scenarios and consequently to modify fertilizer application. The DSSwell simulate SDW accumulation and N uptake of different tomato genotypes grown under Mediterranean and subtropical conditions

A Galileo IOV Assessment: Measurement and Position Domain

The European GNSS, Galileo, is currently in its In-Orbit Validation (IOV) phase where four satellites are finally available for computing the user position. In this phase, the analysis of the measurements and Position Velocity and Time (PVT) obtained from the IOV satellites can provide insight on the potentialities of the Galileo system. A methodology is suggested for the analysis of the Galileo IOV pseudorange and pseudorange rates collected from the E1 and E5 frequencies. Several days of data were collected and processed to determine figures of merits such as RMS and maximum errors of the Galileo observables. From the analysis, it emerges that Galileo is able to achieve better accuracy with respect to GPS. A thorough analysis of the PVT performance is also achieved using broadcast ephemerides. Galileo and GPS PVTs are compared under similar geometry conditions showing the potential of the Galileo system.JRC.G.5-Security technology assessmen

Post-lacustrine evolution of a tectonically-controlled intermontane basin: Drainage network analysis of the Mercure basin, southern Italy

Topographic analysis, drainage network morphometry, river profile analysis, and spatial distribution of fluvio-lacustrine terraces have been used to reconstruct the drainage network evolution in the Mercure River basin, a large intermontane tectonic basin of the axial zone of southern Apennines. Morphotectonic evolution of the study area is mainly controlled by poly-kinematics high-angle WNW-ESE and NE-SW faults, which promoted the development of a complex landscape with relict landscapes and/or low-relief erosional surfaces that occurred in a staircase arrangement at the top of the landscapes or at higher altitudes than the basin infill. The creation of the accommodation space for the deposition of the thick basin infill was related to an important tectonic phase of block-faulting along N120°-trending normal faults, which occurred in the final part of the Lower Pleistocene. Such an evolution strongly controls the longitudinal profile forms of channels draining the northern sector of the study area, which are featured by a well-developed concave-up segment in river profiles of these channels between an upward trait with lower values of channel steepness and the trace of the master fault. River profiles in north-western and south-east sectors of the Mercure River basin exhibit clear knickpoints at altitudes comparable with those of the superimposed orders of relict landscapes related to the initial formation of the tectonic basin and the subsequent evolution of the endorheic basin, with a post-lacustrine geomorphological evolution of the drainage network that is controlled by fluvial incision occurring at rates comparable than those reconstructed by independent morphotectonic markers. The erosion of the threshold of the endorheic basin occurring during the base-level fall of the MIS 12 promoted a dramatic base-level fall of about 150 m, which corresponds to a mean incision rate of about 0.35 mm/yr. Post-lacustrine evolution of the Mercure basin strongly controls the morphometric features of the drainage network, which preserves a centripetal pattern with several planimetric anomalies such as counterflow and high-angle confluences, local-scale fluvial capture phenomena and drainage divide migrations

Prenatal exome sequencing: background, current practice and future perspectives - A systematic review

The introduction of Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) technologies has exerted a significant impact on prenatal diagnosis. Prenatal Exome Sequencing (pES) is performed with increasing frequency in fetuses with structural anomalies and negative chromosomal analysis. The actual diagnostic value varies extensively, and the role of incidental/secondary or inconclusive findings and negative results has not been fully ascertained. We performed a systematic literature review to evaluate the diagnostic yield, as well as inconclusive and negative-result rates of pES. Papers were divided in two groups. The former includes fetuses presenting structural anomalies, regardless the involved organ; the latter focuses on specific class anomalies. Available findings on non-informative or negative results were gathered as well. In the first group, the weighted average diagnostic yield resulted 19%, and inconclusive finding rate 12%. In the second group, the percentages were extremely variable due to differences in sample sizes and inclusion criteria, which constitute major determinants of pES efficiency. Diagnostic pES availability and its application have a pivotal role in prenatal diagnosis, though more homogeneity in access criteria and a consensus on clinical management of controversial information management is envisageable to reach widespread use in the near future