A Methodological Framework for the Evaluation of Syndromic Surveillance Systems: A Case Study of England

Background: Syndromic surveillance complements traditional public health surveillance by collecting and analysing health indicators in near real time. The rationale of syndromic surveillance is that it may detect health threats faster than traditional surveillance systems permitting more timely, and hence potentially more effective public health action. The effectiveness of syndromic surveillance largely relies on the methods used to detect aberrations. Very few studies have evaluated the performance of syndromic surveillance systems and consequently little is known about the types of events that such systems can and cannot detect. Methods: We introduce a framework for the evaluation of syndromic surveillance systems that can be used in any setting based upon the use of simulated scenarios. For a range of scenarios this allows the time and probability of to be determined and uncertainty is fully incorporated. In addition, we demonstrate how such a framework can model the benefits of increases in the number of centres reporting syndromic data and also determine the minimum size of outbreaks that can or cannot be detected. Here, we demonstrate its utility using simulations of national influenza outbreaks and localised outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis. Results: Influenza outbreaks are consistently detected with larger outbreaks being detected in a more timely manner. Small cryptosporidiosis outbreaks (<1000 symptomatic individuals) are unlikely to be detected. We also demonstrate the advantages of having multiple syndromic data streams (e.g. emergency attendance data, telephone helpline data, general practice consultation data) as different streams are able to detect different types outbreaks with different efficacy (e.g. emergency attendance data are useful for the detection of pandemic influenza but not for outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis). We also highlight that for any one disease, the utility of data streams may vary geographically, and that the detection ability of syndromic surveillance varies seasonally (e.g. an influenza outbreak starting in July is detected sooner than one starting later in the year). We argue that our framework constitutes a useful tool for public health emergency preparedness in multiple settings. Conclusions: The proposed framework allows the exhaustive evaluation of any syndromic surveillance system and constitutes a useful tool for emergency preparedness and response

Describing the indirect impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation using syndromic surveillance systems

Abstract Background Since the end of January 2020, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has been responsible for a global health crisis. In England a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been introduced throughout the pandemic, including guidelines on healthcare attendance (for example, promoting remote consultations), increased handwashing and social distancing. These interventions are likely to have impacted the incidence of non–COVID-19 conditions as well as healthcare seeking behaviour. Syndromic Surveillance Systems offer the ability to monitor trends in healthcare usage over time. Methods This study describes the indirect impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation using a range of syndromic indicators including eye conditions, mumps, fractures, herpes zoster and cardiac conditions. Data from the syndromic surveillance systems monitored by Public Health England were used to describe the number of contacts with NHS 111, general practitioner (GP) In Hours (GPIH) and Out-of-Hours (GPOOH), Ambulance and Emergency Department (ED) services over comparable periods before and during the pandemic. Results The peak pandemic period in 2020 (weeks 13–20), compared to the same period in 2019, displayed on average a 12% increase in NHS 111 calls, an 11% decrease in GPOOH consultations, and a 49% decrease in ED attendances. In the GP In Hours system, conjunctivitis consultations decreased by 64% and mumps consultations by 31%. There was a 49% reduction in attendance at EDs for fractures, and there was no longer any weekend increase in ED fracture attendances, with similar attendance patterns observed across each day of the week. There was a decrease in the number of ED attendances with diagnoses of myocardial ischaemia. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic drastically impacted healthcare utilisation for non-COVID-19 conditions, due to a combination of a probable decrease in incidence of certain conditions and changes in healthcare seeking behaviour. Syndromic surveillance has a valuable role in describing and understanding these trends. </jats:sec

HIV-1 variation diminishes CD4 T lymphocyte recognition.

Effective long-term antiviral immunity requires specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes and CD4(+) T lymphocyte help. Failure of these helper responses can be a principle cause of viral persistence. We sought evidence that variation in HIV-1 CD4(+) T helper epitopes might contribute to this phenomenon. To determine this, we assayed fresh peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 43 asymptomatic HIV-1(+) patients for proliferative responses to HIV-1 antigens. 12 (28%) showed a positive response, and we went on to map dominant epitopes in two individuals, to p24 Gag restricted by human histocompatibility leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR1 and to p17 Gag restricted by HLA-DRB52c. Nine naturally occurring variants of the p24 Gag epitope were found in the proviral DNA of the individual in whom this response was detected. All variants bound to HLA-DR1, but three of these peptides failed to stimulate a CD4(+) T lymphocyte line which recognized the index sequence. Antigenic variation was also detected in the p17 Gag epitope; a dominant viral variant present in the patient was well recognized by a specific CD4(+) T lymphocyte line, whereas several natural mutants were not. Importantly, variants detected at both epitopes also failed to stimulate fresh uncultured cells while index peptide stimulated successfully. These results demonstrate that variant antigens arise in HIV-1(+) patients which fail to stimulate the T cell antigen receptor of HLA class II-restricted lymphocytes, although the peptide epitopes are capable of being presented on the cell surface. In HIV-1 infection, naturally occurring HLA class II-restricted altered peptide ligands that fail to stimulate the circulating T lymphocyte repertoire may curtail helper responses at sites where variant viruses predominate

Intersectional global citizenship: gendered and racialized renderings

This article intervenes in the emerging field of global citizenship studies by following in the footsteps of critical studies of national citizenship, which have shown that the seemingly neutral features of citizenship are gendered and racialized. The notion of “global citizenship” has gained currency in recent years and while there is not yet a canonized account of global citizenship, it is possible to identify the main shared features of different global citizenship accounts. While the “global” of global citizenship could denote the universality of the concept in contrast to national citizenship, this promise of inclusivity is not fulfilled. This article provides an intersectional reading of global citizenship theories and examples. Dominant global citizenship accounts, I argue, contain exclusionary and marginalizing tendencies and are biased toward a certain type of global subject whose responsibility is based on benevolence. A more inclusive and radical account of global citizenship can be built by drawing on Iris Marion Young’s social connection model to rethink responsibility and by more firmly grounding it in an understanding of globalization as linked to historical and present structural inequalities

Longitudinal analysis of CD8 T-cell responses to HIV and hepatitis C virus in a cohort of co-infected haemophiliacs.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate CD8 T-cell responses to HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) over time in a group of co-infected children with haemophilia to assess the influence of the virus infections on each other and on clinical outcome. DESIGN: The HIV and HCV CD8 T-cell response of HLA-A2 co-infected individuals in the cohort were analysed at two time points, looking at the frequency and phenotype of HIV-specific T cells and assessing overall responses to the two viruses. METHODS: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from 72 HLA-A2 co-infected individuals were analysed using an HIV HLA-A2 tetramer and by IFN-gamma ELISpot using a panel of HIV and HCV antigens. PBMC from a group of 26 HLA-A2 HIV mono-infected adults were also analysed as a comparison. RESULTS: We identified two distinct patterns of response: some patients had a limited response to either virus whilst others made responses to a range of HIV epitopes. HCV responses were detected only in those who made multiple responses to HIV epitopes (P&lt;0.0001). HCV infection had an influence on the phenotype of HIV-specific CD8 T cells, with a reduction in relative perforin and CD57 expression. Lack of functional or tetramer-positive HIV-specific T cells was associated with a decline in absolute CD4 T-cell counts between the time points (up to 7 years; P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: HCV infection has an impact on the phenotype of HIV-specific CD8 T cells. In this well-defined cohort, failure to maintain effective CD8 T-cell responses against HIV may contribute to disease progression