Stepping on earth: A roadmap for data-driven agent-based modelling

In the last few years an increasing number of more complicated Agent-Based Models have been designed with the aim of approaching reality more closely, usually by introducing more and more empirical data. In this paper we review different approaches that could be adopted: KISS, KIDS and a new one that lies between both. We then propose a new logic of simulation driven by empirical data. Because the emphasis on collected data affects the model’s design and initialisation, as well as its validation, we provide guidelines for data injection, flow diagrams of well-defined stages, and suggest the application of some Artificial Intelligence technologies

Manifesto of computational social science

The increasing integration of technology into our lives has created unprecedented volumes of data on society’s everyday behaviour. Such data opens up exciting new opportunities to work towards a quantitative understanding of our complex social systems, within the realms of a new discipline known as Computational Social Science. Against a background of financial crises, riots and international epidemics, the urgent need for a greater comprehension of the complexity of our interconnected global society and an ability to apply such insights in policy decisions is clear. This manifesto outlines the objectives of this new scientific direction, considering the challenges involved in it, and the extensive impact on science, technology and society that the success of this endeavour is likely to bring about

Mutation update and genotype-phenotype correlations of novel and previously described mutations in TPM2 and TPM3 causing congenital myopathies

Mutations affecting skeletal muscle isoforms of the tropomyosin genes may cause nemaline myopathy, cap myopathy, core-rod myopathy, congenital fiber-type disproportion, distal arthrogryposes, and Escobar syndrome. We correlate the clinical picture of these diseases with novel (19) and previously reported (31) mutations of the TPM2 and TPM3 genes. Included are altogether 93 families: 53 with TPM2 mutations and 40 with TPM3 mutations. Thirty distinct pathogenic variants of TPM2 and 20 of TPM3 have been published or listed in the Leiden Open Variant Database (http://www.dmd.nl/). Most are heterozygous changes associated with autosomal-dominant disease. Patients with TPM2 mutations tended to present with milder symptoms than those with TPM3 mutations, DA being present only in the TPM2 group. Previous studies have shown that five of the mutations in TPM2 and one in TPM3 cause increased Ca2+ sensitivity resulting in a hypercontractile molecular phenotype. Patients with hypercontractile phenotype more often had contractures of the limb joints (18/19) and jaw (6/19) than those with nonhypercontractile ones (2/22 and 1/22), whereas patients with the non-hypercontractile molecular phenotype more often (19/22) had axial contractures than the hypercontractile group (7/19). Our in silico predictions show that most mutations affect tropomyosin–actin association or tropomyosin head-to-tail binding

Multifactorial Analysis of Differences Between Sporadic Breast Cancers and Cancers Involving BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutations

Background: We have previously demonstrated that breast cancers associated with inherited BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutations differ from each other in their histopathologic appearances and that each of these types differs from breast cancers in patients unselected for family history (i.e., sporadic cancers). We have now conducted a more detailed examination of cytologic and architectural features of these tumors. Methods: Specimens of tumor tissue (5-µm-thick sections) were examined independently by two pathologists, who were unaware of the case or control subject status, for the presence of cell mitosis, lymphocytic infiltration, continuous pushing margins, and solid sheets of cancer cells; cell nuclei, cell nucleoli, cell necrosis, and cell borders were also evaluated. The resulting data were combined with previously available information on tumor type and tumor grade and further evaluated by multifactorial analysis. All statistical tests are two-sided. Results: Cancers associated with BRCA1 mutations exhibited higher mitotic counts (P = .001), a greater proportion of the tumor with a continuous pushing margin (P<.0001), and more lymphocytic infiltration (P = .002) than sporadic (i.e., control) cancers. Cancers associated with BRCA2 mutations exhibited a higher score for tubule formation (fewer tubules) (P = .0002), a higher proportion of the tumor perimeter with a continuous pushing margin (P<.0001), and a lower mitotic count (P = .003) than control cancers. Conclusions: Our study has identified key features of the histologic phenotypes of breast cancers in carriers of mutant BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. This information may improve the classification of breast cancers in individuals with a family history of the disease and may ultimately aid in the clinical management of patients. [J Natl Cancer Inst 1998;90:1138-45

Seasonal Patterns of Body Temperature Daily Rhythms in Group-Living Cape Ground Squirrels Xerus inauris

Organisms respond to cyclical environmental conditions by entraining their endogenous biological rhythms. Such physiological responses are expected to be substantial for species inhabiting arid environments which incur large variations in daily and seasonal ambient temperature (Ta). We measured core body temperature (Tb) daily rhythms of Cape ground squirrels Xerus inauris inhabiting an area of Kalahari grassland for six months from the Austral winter through to the summer. Squirrels inhabited two different areas: an exposed flood plain and a nearby wooded, shady area, and occurred in different social group sizes, defined by the number of individuals that shared a sleeping burrow. Of a suite of environmental variables measured, maximal daily Ta provided the greatest explanatory power for mean Tb whereas sunrise had greatest power for Tb acrophase. There were significant changes in mean Tb and Tb acrophase over time with mean Tb increasing and Tb acrophase becoming earlier as the season progressed. Squirrels also emerged from their burrows earlier and returned to them later over the measurement period. Greater increases in Tb, sometimes in excess of 5°C, were noted during the first hour post emergence, after which Tb remained relatively constant. This is consistent with observations that squirrels entered their burrows during the day to ‘offload’ heat. In addition, greater Tb amplitude values were noted in individuals inhabiting the flood plain compared with the woodland suggesting that squirrels dealt with increased environmental variability by attempting to reduce their Ta-Tb gradient. Finally, there were significant effects of age and group size on Tb with a lower and less variable Tb in younger individuals and those from larger group sizes. These data indicate that Cape ground squirrels have a labile Tb which is sensitive to a number of abiotic and biotic factors and which enables them to be active in a harsh and variable environment

A new MRI rating scale for progressive supranuclear palsy and multiple system atrophy: validity and reliability

AIM To evaluate a standardised MRI acquisition protocol and a new image rating scale for disease severity in patients with progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) and multiple systems atrophy (MSA) in a large multicentre study. METHODS The MRI protocol consisted of two-dimensional sagittal and axial T1, axial PD, and axial and coronal T2 weighted acquisitions. The 32 item ordinal scale evaluated abnormalities within the basal ganglia and posterior fossa, blind to diagnosis. Among 760 patients in the study population (PSP = 362, MSA = 398), 627 had per protocol images (PSP = 297, MSA = 330). Intra-rater (n = 60) and inter-rater (n = 555) reliability were assessed through Cohen's statistic, and scale structure through principal component analysis (PCA) (n = 441). Internal consistency and reliability were checked. Discriminant and predictive validity of extracted factors and total scores were tested for disease severity as per clinical diagnosis. RESULTS Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability were acceptable for 25 (78%) of the items scored (≥ 0.41). PCA revealed four meaningful clusters of covarying parameters (factor (F) F1: brainstem and cerebellum; F2: midbrain; F3: putamen; F4: other basal ganglia) with good to excellent internal consistency (Cronbach α 0.75-0.93) and moderate to excellent reliability (intraclass coefficient: F1: 0.92; F2: 0.79; F3: 0.71; F4: 0.49). The total score significantly discriminated for disease severity or diagnosis; factorial scores differentially discriminated for disease severity according to diagnosis (PSP: F1-F2; MSA: F2-F3). The total score was significantly related to survival in PSP (p<0.0007) or MSA (p<0.0005), indicating good predictive validity. CONCLUSIONS The scale is suitable for use in the context of multicentre studies and can reliably and consistently measure MRI abnormalities in PSP and MSA. Clinical Trial Registration Number The study protocol was filed in the open clinical trial registry (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov) with ID No NCT00211224

Localization of type 1 diabetes susceptibility to the MHC class I genes HLA-B and HLA-A

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6 is associated with susceptibility to more common diseases than any other region of the human genome, including almost all disorders classified as autoimmune. In type 1 diabetes the major genetic susceptibility determinants have been mapped to the MHC class II genes HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 (refs 1-3), but these genes cannot completely explain the association between type 1 diabetes and the MHC region. Owing to the region's extreme gene density, the multiplicity of disease-associated alleles, strong associations between alleles, limited genotyping capability, and inadequate statistical approaches and sample sizes, which, and how many, loci within the MHC determine susceptibility remains unclear. Here, in several large type 1 diabetes data sets, we analyse a combined total of 1,729 polymorphisms, and apply statistical methods - recursive partitioning and regression - to pinpoint disease susceptibility to the MHC class I genes HLA-B and HLA-A (risk ratios >1.5; Pcombined = 2.01 × 10-19 and 2.35 × 10-13, respectively) in addition to the established associations of the MHC class II genes. Other loci with smaller and/or rarer effects might also be involved, but to find these, future searches must take into account both the HLA class II and class I genes and use even larger samples. Taken together with previous studies, we conclude that MHC-class-I-mediated events, principally involving HLA-B*39, contribute to the aetiology of type 1 diabetes. ©2007 Nature Publishing Group

Common genetic variants in the CLDN2 and PRSS1-PRSS2 loci alter risk for alcohol-related and sporadic pancreatitis

Pancreatitis is a complex, progressively destructive inflammatory disorder. Alcohol was long thought to be the primary causative agent, but genetic contributions have been of interest since the discovery that rare PRSS1, CFTR, and SPINK1 variants were associated with pancreatitis risk. We now report two significant genome-wide associations identified and replicated at PRSS1-PRSS2 (1×10-12) and x-linked CLDN2 (p < 1×10-21) through a two-stage genome-wide study (Stage 1, 676 cases and 4507 controls; Stage 2, 910 cases and 4170 controls). The PRSS1 variant affects susceptibility by altering expression of the primary trypsinogen gene. The CLDN2 risk allele is associated with atypical localization of claudin-2 in pancreatic acinar cells. The homozygous (or hemizygous male) CLDN2 genotype confers the greatest risk, and its alleles interact with alcohol consumption to amplify risk. These results could partially explain the high frequency of alcohol-related pancreatitis in men – male hemizygous frequency is 0.26, female homozygote is 0.07

Genetic variants of the alpha-synuclein gene SNCA are associated with multiple system atrophy.

Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterized by parkinsonism, cerebellar ataxia and autonomic dysfunction. Pathogenic mechanisms remain obscure but the neuropathological hallmark is the presence of alpha-synuclein-immunoreactive glial cytoplasmic inclusions. Genetic variants of the alpha-synuclein gene, SNCA, are thus strong candidates for genetic association with MSA. One follow-up to a genome-wide association of Parkinson's disease has identified association of a SNP in SNCA with MSA