How to link agricultural productivity, water availability and water demand in a risk context?

The importance of water scarcity in irrigated agriculture in Spain provides the rationale for this paper, which analyses and evaluates the risk of water shortage on the economic result of this kind of agriculture. The main objective is to monitor this risk on a real-time basis. For this aim, we first estimated a number of regression models that explain irrigated agricultural productivity based on crop price indices, a time trend and water availability. These models, which correct for auto-correlation, yield good explanatory power. Second we carried out ex ante simulations of agricultural productivity using fitted distribution functions of water balance. The risk model framework provides the basis for a real time drought management system through a variety of distribution functions of expected economic results, which can be revised on a monthly basis before the beginning of the irrigation season. The results of the simulation show how this kind of risk model can be used to anticipate the effects of droughts and complement the hydrological models used to manage water storage in years of scarcity. Different risk profiles are identified. For example, in Genil-Cabra we found that the resilience of the system after a drought period is very high, whereas in La Plana de Castellón the risk of irrigation area abandonment is increasing year by year. In Genil-Cabra the estimated losses were 60 million euros in 2007. The models were applied to some of the most agriculturally relevant irrigation districts in Spain

Disentangling the social, macro and micro-economic effects of agricultural droughts: An application to Spanish irrigated agriculture

Droughts affect irrigated agricultural production, reducing economic output and creating social stress. The economic consequences of droughts begin at the farm level, reaching the macro level along the production chain value. To the extent that crop markets adjust to the supply shocks and because droughts do not affect all sectors at the same time and with the same severity, it is instructive to conduct economic evaluations of drought effects at both micro- and macro-economic levels. The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of water availability variations on the crops’ market values, the total value added of the agricultural sector and farm employment. We run regression models for these three economic variables and 14 provinces in Spain, comprising more than 50% of the Spanish irrigated area. Results show that the macro economic variables are only sensitive to water availability in the provinces where aridity and water stress are more severe. The value of the harvests obtained in irrigated land is largely explained by water availability. The time trend explains the largest percentage of variance of the three economic variables, including micro and macro

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs

Direct and indirect economic impacts of drought in the agri-food sector in the Ebro River basin (Spain).

The economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of a drought event on the agricultural sector and measure how they are transmitted from primary production to industrial output and related employment. We fit econometric models to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water storage. The direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity are measured through a direct attribution model. Indirect impacts on agricultural employment and the agri-food industry are evaluated through a nested indirect attribution model. The transmission of water scarcity effects from agricultural production to macroeconomic variables is measured through chained elasticities. The models allow for differentiating the impacts deriving from water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show that the importance of drought impacts are less relevant at the macroeconomic level, but are more significant for those activities directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. From a management perspective, implications of these findings are important to develop effective mitigation strategies to reduce drought risk exposure

Agricultural productivity and water supply variability in Spain: a model to manage hydrological risks

Because the topic of drought is of great interest to Southern Californians, a free public event ¿ "A World with Less Water: Discussion on Drought Policy" ¿ was held on the last day of the symposium. Sponsored by the Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy, this public event was advertised widely throughout the region. A panel made up of water policy makers discussed drought issues, answered questions from the audience, and provided a thoughtful discussion about what can be done to avoid and ameliorate drought, both in California and worldwide

Brechas, desafíos y oportunidades en materia de agua y género en América Latina y el Caribe

La adopción de la perspectiva de género en las políticas de agua en América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) ha evolucionado lentamente a lo largo de los años. Si bien se ha demostrado que las mujeres y niñas son discriminadas en el acceso y uso del agua en todos los sectores, aspectos de género todavía no son ampliamente incluidos en los planes y políticas relacionadas a la gestión hídrica. En el presente documento se analizan las políticas que abordan los problemas de agua y género de los países de la región a la luz de cuatro principales brechas identificadas en la literatura: i) acceso e infraestructura de agua y saneamiento, ii) productividad agrícola, iii) manejo y recolección de agua, y v) gobernanza y participación.Resumen .. Presentación .-- I. Brechas en materia de agua y género .-- II. Evolución de los marcos regulatorios globales y regionales relacionados con agua y género .-- III. Políticas de agua y género en ALC .-- IV. Desafíos, oportunidades y recomendaciones para la incorporación de la perspectiva de género en políticas de agua en ALC

Oportunidades de la economía circular en el tratamiento de aguas residuales en América Latina y el Caribe

La adopción de principios de economía circular para la recuperación de metano en plantas de tratamiento de aguas residuales (PTAR) ya está muy extendida en la mayoría de las megaciudades de América Latina y el Caribe (ALC). Sin embargo, hay una amplia cantidad de población que reside en ciudades más pequeñas que carecen de este tipo de cobertura. Para promover la adopción de estas tecnologías en las PTAR de tamaño intermedio en la región, este trabajo estima las inversiones necesarias y los beneficios económicos, sociales y ambientales de la recuperación de metano y la generación eléctrica en 75 plantas que atienden a 33 millones de personas, distribuidas en el Estado Plurinacional de Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, México y Perú.Resumen .-- Introducción .-- I. La problemática de las aguas residuales en América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) .-- II. De residuo a recursos: oportunidades de la economía circular en el tratamiento de aguas residuales municipales .-- III. Potencial de aprovechamiento del metano para la generación de energía en las PTAR de América Latina y el Caribe .-- IV. Estimación de los costos y beneficios derivados del aprovechamiento del metano —emitido en las PTAR objetivo— para la cogeneración de energía .-- V. Conclusiones y recomendaciones

CIBERER : Spanish national network for research on rare diseases: A highly productive collaborative initiative

Altres ajuts: Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII); Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación.CIBER (Center for Biomedical Network Research; Centro de Investigación Biomédica En Red) is a public national consortium created in 2006 under the umbrella of the Spanish National Institute of Health Carlos III (ISCIII). This innovative research structure comprises 11 different specific areas dedicated to the main public health priorities in the National Health System. CIBERER, the thematic area of CIBER focused on rare diseases (RDs) currently consists of 75 research groups belonging to universities, research centers, and hospitals of the entire country. CIBERER's mission is to be a center prioritizing and favoring collaboration and cooperation between biomedical and clinical research groups, with special emphasis on the aspects of genetic, molecular, biochemical, and cellular research of RDs. This research is the basis for providing new tools for the diagnosis and therapy of low-prevalence diseases, in line with the International Rare Diseases Research Consortium (IRDiRC) objectives, thus favoring translational research between the scientific environment of the laboratory and the clinical setting of health centers. In this article, we intend to review CIBERER's 15-year journey and summarize the main results obtained in terms of internationalization, scientific production, contributions toward the discovery of new therapies and novel genes associated to diseases, cooperation with patients' associations and many other topics related to RD research

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis