Appraising the potential impact of a Minimum Unit Price of Alcohol in South Africa: a modelling study with a focus on equity

Broad overview of thesis In this thesis, I present my work modelling a hypothetical Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP ) policy for alcohol in South Africa. This represents the first detailed MUP epidemiological model built outside of a high-income country. I estimate MUP impacts on alcohol consumption, health harms, and various financial variables including retail and government revenue. My epidemiological policy appraisal model is equity-informative through its ability to demonstrate differential impact by wealth quintile. I built the model alongside the delivery of a programme of stakeholder engagement that ensured contextual and policy relevance for South Africa and increased opportunity for impact. I have drawn on methods from the disciplines of public health alcohol research and health economics and provided two distinct, though complimentary, results papers. I have situated my work in the literature of equity-informative health economic modelling of policy appraisal in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)

'It’d be useful, but I wouldn’t use it':barriers to university students’ feedback seeking and recipience

For feedback to be effective, it must be used by the receiver. Prior research has outlined numerous reasons why students’ use of feedback is sometimes limited, but there has been little systematic exploration of these barriers. In 11 activity-oriented focus groups, 31 undergraduate Psychology students discussed how they use assessment feedback. The data revealed many barriers that inhibit use of feedback, ranging from students’ difficulties with decoding terminology, to their unwillingness to expend effort. Thematic analysis identified four underlying psychological processes: awareness, cognisance, agency, and volition. We argue that these processes should be considered when designing interventions to encourage students’ engagement with feedback. Whereas the barriers identified could all in principle be removed, we propose that doing so would typically require – or would at least benefit from – a sharing of responsibility between teacher and student. The data highlight the importance of training students to be proactive receivers of feedback

Effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in South Africa across different drinker groups and wealth quintiles : A modelling study

Objectives To quantify the potential impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol on alcohol consumption, spending and health in South Africa. We provide these estimates disaggregated by different drinker groups and wealth quintiles. Design We developed an epidemiological policy appraisal model to estimate the effects of MUP across sex, drinker groups (moderate, occasional binge, heavy) and wealth quintiles. Stakeholder interviews and workshops informed model development and ensured policy relevance. Setting South African drinking population aged 15+. Participants The population (aged 15+) of South Africa in 2018 stratified by drinking group and wealth quintiles, with a model time horizon of 20 years. Main outcome measures Change in standard drinks (SDs) (12 g of ethanol) consumed, weekly spend on alcohol, annual number of cases and deaths for five alcohol-related health conditions (HIV, intentional injury, road injury, liver cirrhosis and breast cancer), reported by drinker groups and wealth quintile. Results We estimate an MUP of R10 per SD would lead to an immediate reduction in consumption of 4.40% (-0.93 SD/week) and an increase in spend of 18.09%. The absolute reduction is greatest for heavy drinkers (-1.48 SD/week), followed by occasional binge drinkers (-0.41 SD/week) and moderate drinkers (-0.40 SD/week). Over 20 years, we estimate 20 585 fewer deaths and 9 00 332 cases averted across the five health-modelled harms. Poorer drinkers would see greater impacts from the policy (consumption:-7.75% in the poorest quintile,-3.19% in richest quintile). Among the heavy drinkers, 85% of the cases averted and 86% of the lives saved accrue to the bottom three wealth quintiles. Conclusions We estimate that MUP would reduce alcohol consumption in South Africa, improving health outcomes while raising retail and tax revenue. Consumption and harm reductions would be greater in poorer groups

Universal primers that amplify RNA from all three flavivirus subgroups

Background: Species within the Flavivirus genus pose public health problems around the world. Increasing cases of Dengue and Japanese encephalitis virus in Asia, frequent outbreaks of Yellow fever virus in Africa and South America, and the ongoing spread of West Nile virus throughout the Americas, show the geographical burden of flavivirus diseases. Flavivirus infections are often indistinct from and confused with other febrile illnesses. Here we review the specificity of published primers, and describe a new universal primer pair that can detect a wide range of flaviviruses, including viruses from each of the recognised subgroups

What do students want most from written feedback information? Distinguishing necessities from luxuries using a budgeting methodology

Feedback is a key concern for higher education practitioners, yet there is little evidence concerning the aspects of assessment feedback information that higher education students prioritise when their lecturers’ time and resources are stretched. One recent study found that in such circumstances, students actually perceive feedback information itself as a luxury rather than a necessity. We first re-examined that finding by asking undergraduates to ‘purchase’ characteristics to create the ideal lecturer, using budgets of differing sizes to distinguish necessities from luxuries. Contrary to the earlier research, students in fact considered good feedback information the single biggest necessity for lecturers to demonstrate. In a second study we used the same method to examine the characteristics of feedback information that students value most. Here, the most important perceived necessity was guidance on improvement of skills. In both studies, students’ priorities were influenced by their individual approaches to learning. These findings permit a more pragmatic approach to building student satisfaction in spite of growing expectations and demands

How can agent based modelling provide new insights into the impact of minimum unit pricing in Scotland?

In recent years we have gained insight into the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP)—a legal floor price below which a given volume of alcohol cannot be sold—on population-level reductions in alcohol sales, consumption and harm. However, several questions remain unanswered including how individual-level purchasing changes impact the local economy (e.g., balance between on-licence and off-licence outlets), lead to long-term population-level trends (e.g., youth drinking) and social harms (e.g., violence). Agent-based modelling captures heterogeneity, emergence, feedback loops and adaptive and dynamic features, which provides an opportunity to understand the nuanced effects of MUP. Agent-based models (ABM) simulate heterogeneous agents (e.g., individuals, organisations) often situated in space and time that interact with other agents and/or with their environment, allowing us to identify the mechanisms underlying social phenomena. ABMs are particularly useful for theory development, and testing and simulating the impacts of policies and interventions. We illustrate how ABMs could be applied to generate novel insights and provide best estimates of social network effects, and changes in purchasing behaviour and social harms, due to the implementation of MUP. ABMs like other modelling approaches can simulate alternative implementations of MUP (e.g., policy intensity [£0.50, £0.60] or spatial scales [local, national]) but can also provide an understanding of the potential impact of MUP on different population groups (e.g., alcohol exposure of young people who are not yet drinking). Using ABMs to understand the impact of MUP would provide new insights to complement those from traditional epidemiological and other modelling methods

How can agent-based modelling provide new insights into the impact of minimum unit pricing in Scotland?

In recent years we have gained insight into the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP)-a legal floor price below which a given volume of alcohol cannot be sold-on population-level reductions in alcohol sales, consumption and harm. However, several questions remain unanswered including how individual-level purchasing changes impact the local economy (e.g., balance between on-licence and off-licence outlets), lead to long-term population-level trends (e.g., youth drinking) and social harms (e.g., violence). Agent-based modelling captures heterogeneity, emergence, feedback loops and adaptive and dynamic features, which provides an opportunity to understand the nuanced effects of MUP. Agent-based models (ABM) simulate heterogeneous agents (e.g., individuals, organisations) often situated in space and time that interact with other agents and/or with their environment, allowing us to identify the mechanisms underlying social phenomena. ABMs are particularly useful for theory development, and testing and simulating the impacts of policies and interventions. We illustrate how ABMs could be applied to generate novel insights and provide best estimates of social network effects, and changes in purchasing behaviour and social harms, due to the implementation of MUP. ABMs like other modelling approaches can simulate alternative implementations of MUP (e.g., policy intensity [£0.50, £0.60] or spatial scales [local, national]) but can also provide an understanding of the potential impact of MUP on different population groups (e.g., alcohol exposure of young people who are not yet drinking). Using ABMs to understand the impact of MUP would provide new insights to complement those from traditional epidemiological and other modelling methods.Funding information Chief Scientist Office, Grant/Award Number: SPHSU20; Medical Research Council, Grant/Award Number: MC_UU_00022/5

Engaging with assessment: increasing student engagement through continuous assessment

Student engagement is intrinsically linked to two important metrics in learning: student satisfaction and the quality of the student experience. One of the ways that engagement can be influenced is through careful curriculum design. Using the knowledge that many students are ‘assessment-driven’ a low stakes continuous weekly summative e-assessment was introduced to a module. The impact this had on student engagement was measured by studying student activity within the module virtual learning environment (VLE). It was found that introduction of the e-assessments led to a significant increase in VLE activity compared to the VLE activity in that module the previous year, and also compared to the VLE activity of two other modules studied by the same student cohort. As many institutions move towards greater blended or online deliveries it will become more important to ensure that VLEs encourage high levels of student engagement in order to maintain or enhance the student experience. Keywords : continuous assessment, learning analytics, student engagement, virtual learning environment

Equity impact of minimum unit pricing of alcohol on household health and finances among rich and poor drinkers in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: South Africa experiences significant levels of alcohol-related harm. Recent research suggests minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol would be an effective policy, but high levels of income inequality raise concerns about equity impacts. This paper quantifies the equity impact of MUP on household health and finances in rich and poor drinkers in South Africa. METHODS: We draw from extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods and an epidemiological policy appraisal model of MUP for South Africa to simulate the equity impact of a ZAR 10 MUP over a 20-year time horizon. We estimate the impact across wealth quintiles on: (i) alcohol consumption and expenditures; (ii) mortality; (iii) government healthcare cost savings; (iv) reductions in cases of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and household savings linked to reduced health-related workplace absence. RESULTS: We estimate MUP would reduce consumption more among the poorest than the richest drinkers. Expenditure would increase by ZAR 353 000 million (1 US$=13.2 ZAR), the poorest contributing 13% and the richest 28% of the increase, although this remains regressive compared with mean income. Of the 22 600 deaths averted, 56% accrue to the bottom two quintiles; government healthcare cost savings would be substantial (ZAR 3.9 billion). Cases of CHE averted would be 564 700, 46% among the poorest two quintiles. Indirect cost savings amount to ZAR 51.1 billion. CONCLUSIONS: A MUP policy in South Africa has the potential to reduce harm and health inequality. Fiscal policies for population health require structured policy appraisal, accounting for the totality of effects using mathematical models in association with ECEA methodology