Understanding and predicting effects of global environmental change on zoonotic disease

Global environmental change is increasingly recognized to influence risk of numerous zoonotic (animal-borne) infectious diseases. There is a fast-growing body of research into climate change effects on zoonotic risks, but broad-scale studies have rarely investigated how climate interacts with other key drivers, in particular land use change. Here, I evaluate effects of land use and climate on zoonotic disease risk, both generally and in a case study disease, by integrating multiple data types (ecological, epidemiological, satellite) and tools from biodiversity science, spatiotemporal epidemiology and land use modelling. First, I compile and analyse a global database of local species communities and their pathogens, and show that ecological communities in anthropogenic land uses globally are increasingly dominated by zoonotic host species, including mammalian reservoirs of globally-significant zoonoses, and that these trends are likely mediated by species traits. Second, I examine interacting effects of land, climate and socioeconomic factors on Lassa fever (LF), a neglected rodent-borne viral zoonosis that is a significant public health concern in West Africa, focusing on disease risk projection at both short (interannual) and long (multi-decadal) time horizons. In an epidemiological analysis of case surveillance time series from Nigeria, I show that present-day human LF incidence is associated with climate, agriculture and poverty, that periodic surges in LF cases are predicted by seasonal climate-vegetation dynamics, and that recent emergence trends are most likely underpinned by improving surveillance. At longer timescales, I then couple a mechanistic disease risk model with a dynamic land change model and climate projections, to show that different economic and climate policy futures (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) may result in markedly different outcomes for LF risk and burden by 2030 and 2050 across West Africa. Finally, I synthesise the implications of these results for our understanding of the global change ecology of zoonotic disease, the epidemiology and control of LF, and for broader Planetary Health perspectives on managing zoonotic risks

Widespread exposure to Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in Uganda might be driven by transmission from Rhipicephalus ticks: evidence from cross-sectional and modelling studies

BACKGROUND: Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a widespread tick-borne viral infection, present across Africa and Eurasia, which might pose a cryptic public health problem in Uganda. We aimed to understand the magnitude and distribution of CCHF risk in humans, livestock and ticks across Uganda by synthesising epidemiological (cross-sectional) and ecological (modelling) studies. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study at three urban abattoirs receiving cattle from across Uganda. We sampled humans (n=478), livestock (n=419) and ticks (n=1065) and used commercially-available kits to detect human and livestock CCHF virus (CCHFV) antibodies and antigen in tick pools. We developed boosted regression tree models to evaluate the correlates and geographical distribution of expected tick and wildlife hosts, and of human CCHF exposures, drawing on continent-wide data. FINDINGS: The cross-sectional study found CCHFV IgG/IgM seroprevalence in humans of 10·3% (7·8-13·3), with antibody detection positively associated with reported history of tick bite (age-adjusted odds ratio=2·09 (1·09-3·98)). Cattle had a seroprevalence of 69·7% (65·1-73·4). Only one Hyalomma tick (CCHFV-negative) was found. However, CCHFV antigen was detected in Rhipicephalus (5·9% of 304 pools) and Amblyomma (2·9% of 34 pools) species. Modelling predicted high human CCHF risk across much of Uganda, low environmental suitability for Hyalomma, and high suitability for Rhipicephalus and Amblyomma. INTERPRETATION: Our epidemiological and ecological studies provide complementary evidence that CCHF exposure risk is widespread across Uganda. We challenge the idea that Hyalomma ticks are consistently the principal reservoir and vector for CCHFV, and postulate that Rhipicephalus might be important for CCHFV transmission in Uganda, due to high frequency of infected ticks and predicted environmental suitability. FUNDING: UCL Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) and Pan-African Network on Emerging and Re-Emerging Infections (PANDORA-ID-NET) funded by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP) under the EU Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation

Efficacy and safety of cotadutide, a dual glucagon-like peptide-1 and glucagon receptor agonist, in a randomized phase 2a study of patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease

AIM: To assess the efficacy, safety and tolerability of cotadutide in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this phase 2a study (NCT03550378), patients with body mass index 25‐45 kg/m(2), estimated glomerular filtration rate 30‐59 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and type 2 diabetes [glycated haemoglobin 6.5‐10.5% (48‐91 mmol/mol)] controlled with insulin and/or oral therapy combination, were randomized 1:1 to once‐daily subcutaneous cotadutide (50‐300 μg) or placebo for 32 days. The primary endpoint was plasma glucose concentration assessed using a mixed‐meal tolerance test. RESULTS: Participants receiving cotadutide (n = 21) had significant reductions in the mixed‐meal tolerance test area under the glucose concentration‐time curve (–26.71% vs. +3.68%, p < .001), more time in target glucose range on continuous glucose monitoring (+14.79% vs. –21.23%, p = .001) and significant reductions in absolute bodyweight (–3.41 kg vs. –0.13 kg, p < .001) versus placebo (n = 20). In patients with baseline micro‐ or macroalbuminuria (n = 18), urinary albumin‐to‐creatinine ratios decreased by 51% at day 32 with cotadutide versus placebo (p = .0504). No statistically significant difference was observed in mean change in estimated glomerular filtration rate between treatments. Mild/moderate adverse events occurred in 71.4% of participants receiving cotadutide and 35.0% receiving placebo. CONCLUSIONS: We established the efficacy of cotadutide in this patient population, with significantly improved postprandial glucose control and reduced bodyweight versus placebo. Reductions in urinary albumin‐to‐creatinine ratios suggest potential benefits of cotadutide on kidney function, supporting further evaluation in larger, longer‐term clinical trials

Flash monitor initiation is associated with improvements in HbA1c levels and DKA rates among people with Type 1 Diabetes in Scotland:a retrospective nationwide observational study

Funding Information: This study was supported by funding from the Diabetes UK (17/0005627) and the Chief Scientist Office (Ref. ETM/47).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Data proliferation, reconciliation, and synthesis in viral ecology

The fields of viral ecology and evolution have rapidly expanded in the last two decades, driven by technological improvements, and motivated by efforts to discover potentially zoonotic wildlife viruses under the rubric of pandemic prevention. One consequence has been a massive proliferation of host-virus association data, which comprise the backbone of research in viral macroecology and zoonotic risk prediction. These data remain fragmented across numerous data portals and projects, each with their own scope, structure, and reporting standards. Here, we propose that synthesis of host-virus association data is a central challenge to improve our understanding of the global virome and develop foundational theory in viral ecology. To illustrate this, we build an open reconciled mammal-virus database from four key published datasets, applying a standardized taxonomy and metadata. We show that reconciling these datasets provides a substantially richer view of the mammal virome than that offered by any one individual database. We argue for a shift in best practice towards the incremental development and use of synthetic datasets in viral ecology research, both to improve comparability and replicability across studies, and to facilitate future efforts to use machine learning to predict the structure and dynamics of the global virome

Marked improvements in glycaemic outcomes following insulin pump therapy initiation in people with type 1 diabetes:a nationwide observational study in Scotland

This study was supported by funding from Diabetes UK (17/0005627) and the Chief Scientist Office (ref. ETM/47).Aims/hypothesis Our aim was to assess the use of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) in people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland and its association with glycaemic control, as measured by HbA1c levels, frequency of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH), overall and stratified by baseline HbA1c. Methods We included 4684 individuals with type 1 diabetes from the national Scottish register, who commenced CSII between 2004 and 2019. We presented crude within-person differences from baseline HbA1c over time since initiation, crude DKA and SHH event-rates pre-/post-CSII exposure. We then used mixed models to assess the significance of CSII exposure, taking into account: (1) the diffuse nature of the intervention (i.e. structured education often precedes initiation); (2) repeated within-person measurements; and (3) background time-trends occurring pre-intervention. Results HbA1c decreased after CSII initiation, with a median within-person change of −5.5 mmol/mol (IQR −12.0, 0.0) (−0.5% [IQR −1.1, 0.0]). Within-person changes were most substantial in those with the highest baseline HbA1c, with median −21.0 mmol/mol (−30.0, −11.0) (−1.9% [−2.7, −1.0]) change in those with a baseline >84 mmol/mol (9.8%) within a year of exposure, that was sustained: −19.0 mmol/mol (−27.6, −6.5) (−1.7% [−2.5, −0.6]) at ≥5 years. Statistical significance and magnitude of change were supported by the mixed models results. The crude DKA event-rate was significantly lower in post-CSII person-time compared with pre-CSII person-time: 49.6 events (95% CI 46.3, 53.1) per 1000 person-years vs 67.9 (64.1, 71.9); rate ratio from Bayesian mixed models adjusting for pre-exposure trend: 0.61 (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.47, 0.77; posterior probability of reduction pp = 1.00). The crude overall SHH event-rate in post-CSII vs pre-CSII person-time was also lower: 17.8 events (95% CI 15.8, 19.9) per 1000 person-years post-exposure vs 25.8 (23.5, 28.3) pre-exposure; rate ratio from Bayesian mixed models adjusting for pre-exposure trend: 0.67 (95% CrI 0.45, 1.01; pp = 0.97). Conclusions/interpretation CSII therapy was associated with marked falls in HbA1c especially in those with high baseline HbA1c. CSII was independently associated with reduced DKA and SHH rates. CSII appears to be an effective option for intensive insulin therapy in people with diabetes for improving suboptimal glycaemic control.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Rising Rates And Widening Socio-economic Disparities In Diabetic Ketoacidosis In Type 1 Diabetes In Scotland:A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Observational Study

OBJECTIVE: Whether advances in the management of type 1 diabetes are reducing rates of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is unclear. We investigated time trends in DKA rates in a national cohort of individuals with type 1 diabetes monitored for 14 years, overall and by socioeconomic characteristics. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: All individuals in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were alive and at least 1 year old between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018 were identified using the national register (N 5 37,939). DKA deaths and hospital admissions were obtained through linkage to Scottish national death and morbidity records. Bayesian regression was used to test for DKA time trends and association with risk markers, including socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: There were 30,427 DKA admissions and 472 DKA deaths observed over 393,223 person-years at risk. DKA event rates increased over the study period (incidence rate ratio [IRR] per year 1.058 [95% credibility interval 1.054–1.061]). Males had lower rates than females (IRR male-to-female 0.814 [0.776–0.855]). DKA incidence rose in all age-groups other than 10- to 19-year-olds, in whom rates were the highest, but fell over the study. There was a large socioeconomic differential (IRR least-to-most deprived quintile 0.446 [0.406–0.490]), which increased during follow-up. Insulin pump use or completion of structured education were associated with lower DKA rates, and antidepressant and methadone prescription were associated with higher DKA rates. CONCLUSIONS: DKA incidence has risen since 2004, except in 10- to 19-year-olds. Of particular concern are the strong and widening socioeconomic disparities in DKA outcomes. Efforts to prevent DKA, especially in vulnerable groups, require strengthening

Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease's true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning

The future of zoonotic risk prediction

In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions. What are the prerequisites, in terms of open data, equity and interdisciplinary collaboration, to the development and application of those tools? What effect could the technology have on global health? Who would control that technology, who would have access to it and who would benefit from it? Would it improve pandemic prevention? Could it create new challenges? This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.Peer reviewe

Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam.

Dengue is expanding globally, but how dengue emergence is shaped locally by interactions between climatic and socio-environmental factors is not well understood. Here, we investigate the drivers of dengue incidence and emergence in Vietnam, through analysing 23 years of district-level case data spanning a period of significant socioeconomic change (1998-2020). We show that urban infrastructure factors (sanitation, water supply, long-term urban growth) predict local spatial patterns of dengue incidence, while human mobility is a more influential driver in subtropical northern regions than the endemic south. Temperature is the dominant factor shaping dengue's distribution and dynamics, and using long-term reanalysis temperature data we show that warming since 1950 has expanded transmission risk throughout Vietnam, and most strongly in current dengue emergence hotspots (e.g., southern central regions, Ha Noi). In contrast, effects of hydrometeorology are complex, multi-scalar and dependent on local context: risk increases under either short-term precipitation excess or long-term drought, but improvements in water supply mitigate drought-associated risks except under extreme conditions. Our findings challenge the assumption that dengue is an urban disease, instead suggesting that incidence peaks in transitional landscapes with intermediate infrastructure provision, and provide evidence that interactions between recent climate change and mobility are contributing to dengue's expansion throughout Vietnam