Measuring reputational risk of a sovereign state : Italy as a case study

LAUREA MAGISTRALENell'attuale contesto economico la reputazione può influenzare le dinamiche finanziarie degli stati sovrani. Infatti i tassi d'interesse delle obbligazioni degli stati sovrani sono determinati dal rischio di default e dalla credibilità percepita dagli altri paesi. Lo scopo della tesi è di valutare in che modo gli eventi reputazionali influenzano lo spread italiano, scelto come indicatore della salute finanziaria dell'Italia. A questo proposito è necessario costruire un modello di regressione lineare locale capace di predire le dinamiche dello spread non basate su eventi reputazionali. I regressori scelti sono il FTSE-MIB che cattura le dinamiche dell'economia italiana, un aggregato di spreads di altri paesi delll'eurozona capace di spiegare i trend europei e il tasso di cambio EURO/DOLLARO per identificare le dinamiche mondiali. 213 eventi divisi in 12 categorie sono stati selezionati nel periodo fra il 7 Maggio 2008 e il 31 Dicembre 2013. 69 sono risultati essere significativamente impattanti sullo spread italiano, 30 aumentandolo e 39 diminuendolo.\\ Le differenti categorie di eventi hanno dimostrato di impattare sullo spread in diverso modo. Considerando le 5 categorie più numerose "Eventi giudiziari premier", "Fiducia consumatori", "Governo battuto" e "Voto di fiducia" sono risultate influenzare lo spread italiano, mentre "Comunicazione PIL" non produce variazioni significative nel suo comportamento.In the current economic context reputation can influence financial dynamics in sovereign states. In fact sovereign states bonds interest rates are determined by the default risk and by the credibility perceived by other countries. The aim of the thesis is to evaluate how reputational events affect the Italian spread, considered as a proxy for Italian financial health, choosen as case study. In order to do that it is required to build a local linear regression model able to model spread dynamics not correlated to reputational events. The selected regressors are FTSE-MIB to capture economic Italian dynamics, an aggregate of eurozone countries spreads able to explain european trends and EURO/DOLLAR exchange rate to show the Europe-world behaviour. 213 events divided into 12 categories were selected over the period between 7th May 2008 and 31th December 2013. 69 of them resulted significantly impacting on Italian spread, 30 making it increase and 39 decrease. Different categories have demonstrated to impact on spread in different ways. Considering the 5 most frequent categories "Judiciary events premier", "Consumers confidence", "Government defeated" and "Vote of confidence" resulted to influence Italian spread, while "PIL comunication" does not produce significative changes in its behaviour

Toxicity of lunar dust

The formation, composition and physical properties of lunar dust are incompletely characterised with regard to human health. While the physical and chemical determinants of dust toxicity for materials such as asbestos, quartz, volcanic ashes and urban particulate matter have been the focus of substantial research efforts, lunar dust properties, and therefore lunar dust toxicity may differ substantially. In this contribution, past and ongoing work on dust toxicity is reviewed, and major knowledge gaps that prevent an accurate assessment of lunar dust toxicity are identified. Finally, a range of studies using ground-based, low-gravity, and in situ measurements is recommended to address the identified knowledge gaps. Because none of the curated lunar samples exist in a pristine state that preserves the surface reactive chemical aspects thought to be present on the lunar surface, studies using this material carry with them considerable uncertainty in terms of fidelity. As a consequence, in situ data on lunar dust properties will be required to provide ground truth for ground-based studies quantifying the toxicity of dust exposure and the associated health risks during future manned lunar missions.Comment: 62 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in Planetary and Space Scienc