Incorporating Animal Movement Into Distance Sampling

Distance sampling is a popular statistical method to estimate the density of wild animal populations. Conventional distance sampling represents animals as fixed points in space that are detected with an unknown probability that depends on the distance between the observer and the animal. Animal movement can cause substantial bias in density estimation. Methods to correct for responsive animal movement exist, but none account for nonresponsive movement independent of the observer. Here, an explicit animal movement model is incorporated into distance sampling, combining distance sampling survey data with animal telemetry data. Detection probability depends on the entire unobserved path the animal travels. The intractable integration over all possible animal paths is approximated by a hidden Markov model. A simulation study shows themethod to be negligibly biased (\u3c5%) in scenarioswhere conventional distance sampling overestimates abundance by up to 100%. The method is applied to line transect surveys (1999– 2006) of spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata) in the eastern tropical Pacific where abundance is shown to be positively biased by 21% on average, which can have substantial impact on the population dynamics estimated from these abundance estimates and on the choice of statistical methodology applied to future surveys. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement

Point process models for spatio-temporal distance sampling data from a large-scale survey of blue whales

Distance sampling is a widely used method for estimating wildlife population abundance. The fact that conventional distance sampling methods are partly design-based constrains the spatial resolution at which animal density can be estimated using these methods. Estimates are usually obtained at survey stratum level. For an endangered species such as the blue whale, it is desirable to estimate density and abundance at a finer spatial scale than stratum. Temporal variation in the spatial structure is also important. We formulate the process generating distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process and propose model-based inference using a spatial log-Gaussian Cox process. The method adopts a flexible stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach to model spatial structure in density that is not accounted for by explanatory variables, and integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for Bayesian inference. It allows simultaneous fitting of detection and density models and permits prediction of density at an arbitrarily fine scale. We estimate blue whale density in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean from thirteen shipboard surveys conducted over 22 years. We find that higher blue whale density is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in space, and although there is some positive association between density and mean annual temperature, our estimates are consitent with no trend in density across years. Our analysis also indicates that there is substantial spatially structured variation in density that is not explained by available covariates.Comment: 33 pages 19 figure

Assessing the Environmental Status of the short-beaked common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in North-western Spanish waters using abundance trends and safe removal limits

Monitoring and assessment of the status of marine mammal populations is a requirement of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Due to the difficulty of collecting data in the marine environment and because many populations of these highly mobile species inhabit waters of several Member States, monitoring of marine mammals is particularly challenging. In the present work we have used a 10- year time-series of data collected from multidisciplinary research surveys to estimate common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) abundance and trends in continental shelf waters of the northwest Spanish sub-region. We argue that this approach provides a valuable addition to large-scale dedicated surveys, offering a shorter interval between surveys and hence offering the possibility to track abundance changes at a regional scale. Trends in the number of dolphins present in the study area over the last 10 years show a mean increase of about 9.6% per year, which results in an evaluation of Good Environmental Status for the species in the area using the abundance indicator adopted in the framework of the MSFD. Data obtained from dedicated dual-platform surveys have been used to correct the detection bias in our data collected using single-platforms (attraction toward the observation platform and animals missed on the track-line), to obtain absolute abundance estimates for calculating bycatch limits. The average abundance over the study period was 12831 dolphins [CI 95%; 9025, 18242] calculated with the conventional distance sampling methodology, 4747 [3307, 6816] corrected for attraction and missed animals on the track-line, and 22510 [15776, 32120] corrected only for missed animals on the track-line. The estimated safe bycatch limit for this area calculated from these abundance values were 218 [153, 310], 81 [56, 115] and 383 [268, 546] per year, respectively. Comparing these figures with estimates based on different sources, the percentage of dolphins that die in this study area is higher than the maximum limit allowable under the OSPAR criteria for population mortality adopted as an indicator for the MSFD.Versión del editor3,26

Abundance and distribution of the common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in the north of the Iberian Peninsula

Common dolphin s ( Delphinus delphis ) are one of the most abundant species of small cetacean in Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the most abundant in Atlantic shelf waters of the Iberian Peninsula. However, the abundance , distribution and population trends in the recen t years of this species are poorly known , but such information is needed to develop population dynamic models . Thus far, the only absolute abundance estimate in the shelf Atlantic waters of the Iberian Peninsula was obtained in 2005 during the SCANS - II survey. Along the north and northwest coast s of the Iberian Peninsula , t he Spanish Institute of Oceanography has carried out annual acoustic survey s to estimate pelagic fish biomass for the last two decades. Since 2007 , an observer program for top predators has been integrated in to these survey s , collecting sightings on cetaceans, seabirds and other species using line - transect method ology . Common d olphin sightings from 2007 to 201 4 were analyzed with Distance software to estimate relative population size . Because attraction to the vessel could inflate population estimates, c ommon dolphin a bundance was estimated using a detection function only from sightings where no attraction were recorded and also using Bayesian methods to combine previou s data on attraction collected during SCANS - II with data collected from the acoustic fish surveys. D olphin density estimated with both methods w as < 0.3 dolphin s/ Km 2 , which is similar to the density estimated by SCANS - II . T he Bayesian framework allows us to work with the scarcity and uncertainty of the data , particularly when obtaining annual estimates. Because c etacean sightings were collected during fish acoustic surveys , pelagic fish abundance ( e.g. S ardine and Blue whiting ) , obtained concurrently to the sightings, can be used , along with other environmental variables , to model dolphin habitat and to predict dolphin abundance and distribution

Review of potential line-transect methodologies for estimating abundance of dolphin stocks in the eastern tropical Pacific

A twelve-year hiatus in fishery-independent marine mammal surveys in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP), combined with a mandate to monitor dolphin stock status under international agreements and the need for reliable stock status information to set dolphin bycatch limits in the tuna purse-seine fishery, has renewed debate about how best to assess and monitor ETP dolphin stock status. The high cost of replicating previous ship-based surveys has intensified this debate. In this review, transect methods for estimating animal abundance from dedicated research surveys are considered, with a focus on both contemporary and potential methods suitable for surveying large areas for dolphin species that can form large, multi-species aggregations. Covered in this review are potential improvements to the previous ship-based survey methodology, other ship-based methods, alternative approaches based on high-resolution imagery and passive acoustics, and combinations of ship-based and alternative approaches. It is concluded that for immediate management needs, ship-based surveys, with some suggested modifications to improve precision, are the only reliable option despite their high cost. However, it is recommended that a top research priority should be development of composite methods. Pilot studies on the use of high-resolution imagery and passive acoustics for development of indices of relative abundance to be used in composite methods should be part of any future ship-based survey efforts

Evaluación del estado ambiental de la población de delfín común en el norte y noroeste de la Península Ibérica

El objetivo de las Estrategias Marinas es permitir el uso sostenible del medio marino mediante la gestión de las actividades y presiones humanas siguiendo un enfoque ecosistémico. La evaluación del estado de conservación de las especies marinas y su monitorización para determinar si alcanza el Buen Estado Ambiental (BEA) son sus pilares básicos. Para establecer medidas de gestión que permitan a una población alcanzar el BEA, se debe estudiar el estado de la misma y el efecto que diferentes niveles de amenazas antropogénicas pueden tener sobre ella. La creación de modelos dinámicos permite estudiar las posibles trayectorias de una población ante diferentes escenarios. La fuente de información biológica más importante que poseemos es aquella proveniente de los varamientos, que también proporcionan información sobre la causa de la muerte. El análisis de las muestras de individuos varados nos permite calcular tasas de natalidad, mortalidad, estructura de edad poblacional y el impacto directo o indirecto de las presiones antropogénicas (captura accidental, colisiones con embarcaciones, contaminación, etc.). Asimismo, los patrones observados en los varamientos nos dan información sobre la tendencia en la abundancia de una especie y sobre posibles desplazamientos. La abundancia de una población puede ser obtenida mediante campañas de avistamiento y, dependiendo de la metodología empleada, pueden obtenerse estimas relativas o absolutas. Además, la dieta de los cetáceos nos permite estudiar sus preferencias alimentarias y el papel que pueden estar jugando en el ecosistema. Los modelos multiespecíficos (p.ej. Gadget) posibilitan estudiar su interacción con los stocks pesqueros e informar una gestión ecosistémica. En este trabajo se presentan datos preliminares sobre abundancia del delfín común en el N y NW peninsular, tendencias en la abundancia, parámetros biológicos y su estructura poblacional, mortalidad natural, pesquera y ejemplos de puntos de referencia que permitan determinar si la población alcanza el BEA

Current and Future Patterns of Global Marine Mammal Biodiversity

Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available

Assessing the environmental status of the short-beaked common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in North-western Spanish waters using abundance trends and safe removal limits

Monitoring and assessment of the status of marine mammal populations is a requirement of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Due to the difficulty of collecting data in the marine environment and because many populations of these highly mobile species inhabit waters of several Member States, monitoring of marine mammals is particularly challenging. In the present work we have used a 10-year time-series of data collected from multidisciplinary research surveys to estimate common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) abundance and trends in continental shelf waters of the northwest Spanish sub-region. We argue that this approach provides a valuable addition to large-scale dedicated surveys, offering a shorter interval between surveys and hence offering the possibility to track abundance changes at a regional scale. Trends in the number of dolphins present in the study area over the last 10 years show a mean increase of about 9.6% per year, which results in an evaluation of Good Environmental Status for the species in the area using the abundance indicator adopted in the framework of the MSFD. Data obtained from dedicated dual-platform surveys have been used to correct the detection bias in our data collected using single-platforms (attraction toward the observation platform and animals missed on the track-line), to obtain absolute abundance estimates for calculating bycatch limits. The average abundance over the study period was 12,831 dolphins [CI 95%; 9025, 18,242] calculated with the conventional distance sampling methodology, 4747 [3307, 6816] corrected for attraction and missed animals on the track-line, and 22,510 [15,776, 32,120] corrected only for missed animals on the track-line. The estimated safe bycatch limit for this area calculated from these abundance values were 218 [153, 310], 81 [56, 115] and 383 [268, 546] per year, respectively. Comparing these figures with estimates based on different sources, the percentage of dolphins that die in this study area is higher than the maximum limit allowable under the OSPAR criteria for population mortality adopted as an indicator for the MSFD