Rapid recovery of Dutch gray seal colonies fuelled by immigration

Gray seals were first observed breeding in the Dutch Wadden Sea in 1985, after centuries of absence. The breeding colony there is now the largest on the European continent. We describe the changes in gray seal numbers and their geographical expansion, and estimate how these processes were influenced by immigration from other colonies. Counts of hauled out animals were carried out between 1985 and 2013, monitoring three different periods of the seals’ annual cycle. Using priors determined for the UK population, a Bayesian demographic model was fitted to pup numbers to estimate the population parameters driving the growth. This included immigration of sub-adults into the breeding population, which contributed to an average growth rate in the pup counts of 19%/y, much higher than expected in a closed population. This immigration may account for approximately 35% of the total annual growth. In addition, at least 200 grey seals from the UK visit the area temporarily. Recovery of the population in the Netherlands occurred more than 50 yr after gray seals were protected in the UK. These time scales should be taken into account when studying long living marine mammals, e.g. in impact and conservation studies

Incorporating Animal Movement Into Distance Sampling

Distance sampling is a popular statistical method to estimate the density of wild animal populations. Conventional distance sampling represents animals as fixed points in space that are detected with an unknown probability that depends on the distance between the observer and the animal. Animal movement can cause substantial bias in density estimation. Methods to correct for responsive animal movement exist, but none account for nonresponsive movement independent of the observer. Here, an explicit animal movement model is incorporated into distance sampling, combining distance sampling survey data with animal telemetry data. Detection probability depends on the entire unobserved path the animal travels. The intractable integration over all possible animal paths is approximated by a hidden Markov model. A simulation study shows themethod to be negligibly biased (\u3c5%) in scenarioswhere conventional distance sampling overestimates abundance by up to 100%. The method is applied to line transect surveys (1999– 2006) of spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata) in the eastern tropical Pacific where abundance is shown to be positively biased by 21% on average, which can have substantial impact on the population dynamics estimated from these abundance estimates and on the choice of statistical methodology applied to future surveys. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement

Point process models for spatio-temporal distance sampling data from a large-scale survey of blue whales

Distance sampling is a widely used method for estimating wildlife population abundance. The fact that conventional distance sampling methods are partly design-based constrains the spatial resolution at which animal density can be estimated using these methods. Estimates are usually obtained at survey stratum level. For an endangered species such as the blue whale, it is desirable to estimate density and abundance at a finer spatial scale than stratum. Temporal variation in the spatial structure is also important. We formulate the process generating distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process and propose model-based inference using a spatial log-Gaussian Cox process. The method adopts a flexible stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach to model spatial structure in density that is not accounted for by explanatory variables, and integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for Bayesian inference. It allows simultaneous fitting of detection and density models and permits prediction of density at an arbitrarily fine scale. We estimate blue whale density in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean from thirteen shipboard surveys conducted over 22 years. We find that higher blue whale density is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in space, and although there is some positive association between density and mean annual temperature, our estimates are consitent with no trend in density across years. Our analysis also indicates that there is substantial spatially structured variation in density that is not explained by available covariates.Comment: 33 pages 19 figure

Assessing the Environmental Status of the short-beaked common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in North-western Spanish waters using abundance trends and safe removal limits

Monitoring and assessment of the status of marine mammal populations is a requirement of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Due to the difficulty of collecting data in the marine environment and because many populations of these highly mobile species inhabit waters of several Member States, monitoring of marine mammals is particularly challenging. In the present work we have used a 10- year time-series of data collected from multidisciplinary research surveys to estimate common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) abundance and trends in continental shelf waters of the northwest Spanish sub-region. We argue that this approach provides a valuable addition to large-scale dedicated surveys, offering a shorter interval between surveys and hence offering the possibility to track abundance changes at a regional scale. Trends in the number of dolphins present in the study area over the last 10 years show a mean increase of about 9.6% per year, which results in an evaluation of Good Environmental Status for the species in the area using the abundance indicator adopted in the framework of the MSFD. Data obtained from dedicated dual-platform surveys have been used to correct the detection bias in our data collected using single-platforms (attraction toward the observation platform and animals missed on the track-line), to obtain absolute abundance estimates for calculating bycatch limits. The average abundance over the study period was 12831 dolphins [CI 95%; 9025, 18242] calculated with the conventional distance sampling methodology, 4747 [3307, 6816] corrected for attraction and missed animals on the track-line, and 22510 [15776, 32120] corrected only for missed animals on the track-line. The estimated safe bycatch limit for this area calculated from these abundance values were 218 [153, 310], 81 [56, 115] and 383 [268, 546] per year, respectively. Comparing these figures with estimates based on different sources, the percentage of dolphins that die in this study area is higher than the maximum limit allowable under the OSPAR criteria for population mortality adopted as an indicator for the MSFD.Versión del editor3,26

Abundance and distribution of the common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in the north of the Iberian Peninsula

Common dolphin s ( Delphinus delphis ) are one of the most abundant species of small cetacean in Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the most abundant in Atlantic shelf waters of the Iberian Peninsula. However, the abundance , distribution and population trends in the recen t years of this species are poorly known , but such information is needed to develop population dynamic models . Thus far, the only absolute abundance estimate in the shelf Atlantic waters of the Iberian Peninsula was obtained in 2005 during the SCANS - II survey. Along the north and northwest coast s of the Iberian Peninsula , t he Spanish Institute of Oceanography has carried out annual acoustic survey s to estimate pelagic fish biomass for the last two decades. Since 2007 , an observer program for top predators has been integrated in to these survey s , collecting sightings on cetaceans, seabirds and other species using line - transect method ology . Common d olphin sightings from 2007 to 201 4 were analyzed with Distance software to estimate relative population size . Because attraction to the vessel could inflate population estimates, c ommon dolphin a bundance was estimated using a detection function only from sightings where no attraction were recorded and also using Bayesian methods to combine previou s data on attraction collected during SCANS - II with data collected from the acoustic fish surveys. D olphin density estimated with both methods w as < 0.3 dolphin s/ Km 2 , which is similar to the density estimated by SCANS - II . T he Bayesian framework allows us to work with the scarcity and uncertainty of the data , particularly when obtaining annual estimates. Because c etacean sightings were collected during fish acoustic surveys , pelagic fish abundance ( e.g. S ardine and Blue whiting ) , obtained concurrently to the sightings, can be used , along with other environmental variables , to model dolphin habitat and to predict dolphin abundance and distribution

A comparison of image and observer based aerial surveys of narwhal

From 25 to 30 August 2014 a double-observer line-transect survey was conducted over Melville Bay, home to one of two summering populations of narwhal (Monodon monoceros) off West Greenland. A total of 1,932 linear kilometers was surveyed along 33 transects. In addition to using observers, the aircraft was equipped with two oblique cameras to capture a comparable data set. Analysts reviewed the images for narwhal sightings, which were then matched to the observer sightings. The objectives of the study were to determine advantages and disadvantages of the detection capabilities of both methodologies, and to conduct a comparative analysis of population abundance estimates. Correcting for the truncated detection distance of the images (500 m), the image analysts recorded more sightings (62) and a lower mean group size (2.2) compared to aerial observers (36 and 3.5, respectively), resulting in comparable numbers of individuals detected by both platforms (135 vs. 126). The abundance estimate based on the image sightings was 2,536 (CV = 0.51, 95% CI: 1,003-6,406), which was not significantly different from the aerial observers estimate of 2,596 individuals (CV = 0.51; 95% CI: 961-7,008). This study supports the potential of using UAS for marine mammal abundance studies

Review of potential line-transect methodologies for estimating abundance of dolphin stocks in the eastern tropical Pacific

A twelve-year hiatus in fishery-independent marine mammal surveys in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP), combined with a mandate to monitor dolphin stock status under international agreements and the need for reliable stock status information to set dolphin bycatch limits in the tuna purse-seine fishery, has renewed debate about how best to assess and monitor ETP dolphin stock status. The high cost of replicating previous ship-based surveys has intensified this debate. In this review, transect methods for estimating animal abundance from dedicated research surveys are considered, with a focus on both contemporary and potential methods suitable for surveying large areas for dolphin species that can form large, multi-species aggregations. Covered in this review are potential improvements to the previous ship-based survey methodology, other ship-based methods, alternative approaches based on high-resolution imagery and passive acoustics, and combinations of ship-based and alternative approaches. It is concluded that for immediate management needs, ship-based surveys, with some suggested modifications to improve precision, are the only reliable option despite their high cost. However, it is recommended that a top research priority should be development of composite methods. Pilot studies on the use of high-resolution imagery and passive acoustics for development of indices of relative abundance to be used in composite methods should be part of any future ship-based survey efforts

Monitoring Winter and Summer Abundance of Cetaceans in the Pelagos Sanctuary (Northwestern Mediterranean Sea) Through Aerial Surveys

Systematic long-term monitoring of abundance is essential to inform conservation measures and evaluate their effectiveness. To instigate such work in the Pelagos Sanctuary in the Mediterranean, two aerial surveys were conducted in winter and summer 2009. A total of 467 (131 in winter, 336 in summer) sightings of 7 species was made. Sample sizes were sufficient to estimate abundance of fin whales in summer (148; 95% CI = 87–254) and striped dolphins in winter (19,462; 95% CI = 12 939–29 273) and in summer (38 488; 95% CI = 27 447–53 968). Numbers of animals within the Sanctuary are significantly higher in summer, when human activities and thus potential population level impacts are highest. Comparisons with data from past shipboard surveys suggest an appreciable decrease in fin whales within the Sanctuary area and an appreciable increase in striped dolphins. Aerial surveys proved to be more efficient than ship surveys, allowing more robust estimates, with smaller CIs and CVs. These results provide essential baseline data for this marine protected area and continued regular surveys will allow the effectiveness of the MPA in terms of cetacean conservation to be evaluated and inform future management measures. The collected data may also be crucial in assessing whether ship strikes, one of the main causes of death for fin whales in the Mediterranean, are affecting the Mediterranean population