Remote Sensing-Driven Pacific Oyster (Crassostrea gigas) Growth Modeling to Inform Offshore Aquaculture Site Selection

Aquaculture increasingly contributes to global seafood production, requiring new farm sites for continued growth. In France, oyster cultivation has conventionally taken place in the intertidal zone, where there is little or no further room for expansion. Despite interest in moving production further offshore, more information is needed regarding the biological potential for offshore oyster growth, including its spatial and temporal variability. This study shows the use of remotely-sensed chlorophyll-a and total suspended matter concentrations retrieved from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), and sea surface temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), all validated using in situ matchup measurements, as input to run a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Pacific oyster growth model for a study site along the French Atlantic coast (Bourgneuf Bay, France). Resulting oyster growth maps were calibrated and validated using in situ measurements of total oyster weight made throughout two growing seasons, from the intertidal zone, where cultivation currently takes place, and from experimental offshore sites, for both spat (R2 = 0.91; RMSE = 1.60 g) and adults (R2 = 0.95; RMSE = 4.34 g). Oyster growth time series are further digested into industry-relevant indicators, such as time to achieve market weight and quality index, elaborated in consultation with local producers and industry professionals, and which are also mapped. Offshore growth is found to be feasible and to be as much as two times faster than in the intertidal zone (p < 0.001). However, the potential for growth is also revealed to be highly variable across the investigated area. Mapping reveals a clear spatial gradient in production potential in the offshore environment, with the northeastern segment of the bay far better suited than the southwestern. Results also highlight the added value of spatiotemporal data, such as satellite image time series, to drive modeling in support of marine spatial planning. The current work demonstrates the feasibility and benefit of such a coupled remote sensing modeling approach within a shellfish farming context, responding to real and current interests of oyster producers

Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) growth modelling and indicators for offshore aquaculture in Europe under climate change uncertainty

Aquaculture development in Europe, while critical to the European Union (EU) Blue Growth strategy, has stagnated over the past decades due largely to high competition for space in the nearshore coastal zone among potential uses and the lack of clear priorities, policy, and planning at EU and national scales. Broad Marine Spatial Planning, including the designation of Allocated Zones for Aquaculture, requires spatial data at the corresponding broad spatial scale, which has not been readily available, as well as model projections to assess potential impacts of climate change. Here, daily chlorophyll-a, water temperature, salinity, and current speed outputs from a marine ecosystem model encompassing the coastal North East Atlantic, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea (the pan-European POLCOMS-ERSEM model configuration) are used to drive a Dynamic Energy Budget growth model of Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas). Areas broadly suitable for growth were iden�tified using threshold tolerance range masking applied using the model variables mentioned above, as well as bathymetry data. Oyster growth time series were transformed into simplified indicators that are meaningful to the industry (e.g., time to market weight) and mapped. In addition to early-century indicator maps, modelling and mapping were also carried out for two contrasting late-century climate change projections, following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Areas found to have good oyster growth potential now and into the future were further assessed in terms of their climate robustness (i.e., where oyster growth predictions are comparable between different future climate scenarios). Several areas within Europe were highlighted as priority areas for the development of offshore Pacific oyster cultivation, including coastal waters along the French Atlantic, the southern North Sea, and western Scotland and Ireland. A large potential growth hot spot was also identified along northwestern Africa, associated with a cool, productive upwelling coastal zone. The framework proposed here offers a flexible approach to include a large range of ecological input data, climate and ecosystem model scenarios, aquaculture-related models, species of interest, indicator types, and tolerance thresholds. Such information is suggested to be included in more extensive spatial assessments and planning, along with further socioeconomic and environmental data

Assembling the Dead, Gathering the Living: Radiocarbon Dating and Bayesian Modelling for Copper Age Valencina de la Concepción (Seville, Spain)

The great site of Valencina de la Concepción, near Seville in the lower Guadalquivir valley of southwest Spain, is presented in the context of debate about the nature of Copper Age society in southern Iberia as a whole. Many aspects of the layout, use, character and development of Valencina remain unclear, just as there are major unresolved questions about the kind of society represented there and in southern Iberia, from the late fourth to the late third millennium cal BC. This paper discusses 178 radiocarbon dates, from 17 excavated sectors within the c. 450 ha site, making it the best dated in later Iberian prehistory as a whole. Dates are modelled in a Bayesian statistical framework. The resulting formal date estimates provide the basis for both a new epistemological approach to the site and a much more detailed narrative of its development than previously available. Beginning in the 32nd century cal BC, a long-lasting tradition of simple, mainly collective and often successive burial was established at the site. Mud-vaulted tholoi appear to belong to the 29th or 28th centuries cal BC; large stone-vaulted tholoi such as La Pastora appear to date later in the sequence. There is plenty of evidence for a wide range of other activity, but no clear sign of permanent, large-scale residence or public buildings or spaces. Results in general support a model of increasingly competitive but ultimately unstable social relations, through various phases of emergence, social competition, display and hierarchisation, and eventual decline, over a period of c. 900 years