Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 214:Longitudinal analysis of income-related health inequality

This paper considers the characterisation and measurement of income-related health inequality using longitudinal data. The paper elucidates the nature of the Jones and Lopez Nicholas (2004) index of “health-related income mobility” and explains the negative values of the index that have been reported in all the empirical applications to date. The paper further questions the value of their index to health policymakers and proposes an alternative index of “income-related health mobility” that measures whether the pattern of health changes is biased in favour of those with initially high or low incomes. We illustrate our work by investigating mobility in the General Health Questionnaire measure of psychological well-being over the first nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey from 1991 to 1999

Relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in France: evidence from cointegration analysis and Granger causality with using geostatistical models

This paper introduces a new way of investigating linear and nonlinear Granger causality between exports, imports and economic growth in France over the period 1961-2006 with using geostatistical models (kiriging and inverse distance weighting). Geostatistical methods are the ordinary methods for forecasting the locations and making map in water engineerig, environment, environmental pollution, mining, ecology, geology and geography. Although, this is the first time which geostatistics knowledge is used for economic analyzes. In classical econometrics there do not exist any estimator which have the capability to find the best functional form in the estimation. Geostatistical models investigate simultaneous linear and various nonlinear types of causality test, which cause to decrease the effects of choosing functional form in autoregressive model. This approach imitates the Granger definition and structure but improve it to have better ability to investigate nonlinear causality. Results of both VEC and Improved-VEC (with geostatistical methods) are similar and show existance of long run unidirectional causality from exports and imports to economic growth. However the F-statistic of improved-VEC is larger than VEC indicating that there are some exponential and spherical functions in the VEC structure instead of the linear form.Granger causality; Exports; Imports; Economic growth; Geostatistical model; Kiriging; Inverse distance weighting; Vector auto-regression; France

Deaths Rise in Good Economic Times: Evidence From the OECD

This study uses aggregate data for 23 OECD countries over the 1960-1997 period to examine the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and fatalities. The main finding is that total mortality and deaths from several common causes increase when labor markets strengthen. For instance, controlling for year effects, location fixed effects, country-specific time trends and demographic characteristics, a one percentage point decrease in the national unemployment rate is associated with a 0.4 percent rise in total mortality and 0.4, 1.1, 1.8, 2.1 and 0.8 percent increases in deaths from cardiovascular disease, influenza/pneumonia, liver disease, motor vehicle fatalities and other accidents. These results are consistent with the findings of other recent research and cast doubt on the hypothesis that economic downturns have negative effects on physical health

Predicting survival in cost-effectiveness analyses based on clinical trials

This paper deals with the question how to model health effects after the cessation of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Using clinical trial data on severe congestive heart failure patients we illustrate how survival beyond the cessation of a RCT can be predicted based on parametric survival models. In the analysis we compare the predicted survival and the resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different survival models with the actual survival/ICER. Our main finding is that the results are highly sensitive to the choice of survival model and that extensive sensitivity analysis in the CE analysis is required. We also show that adding the true survival after the end of the clinical study will underestimate the true variability

A new approach for estimation of long-run relationships in economic analysis using Engle-Granger and artificial intelligence methods

In time series analysis, most estimation of relationships and tests are typically based on linear estimators and most classical co-integration methods and causality tests are based on OLS regresses. However the linear functional specification is not necessarily the most appropriate form. This paper breaks the ordinary rules in econometrics and makes use of time series with artificial intelligence methods, testing for existence of nonlinear relationship. We illustrate the testing exercise using two examples based on OECD health data. In our illustration we confirm that improved nonlinear AEG and VEC, significantly, have a better ability to identify long run co-integration and causal relationships than ordinary linear ones. Ordinary methods and improved-nonlinear methods demonstrate similar results if the variables in a model are approximately linear

How Business Cycles Affect the Healthcare Sector: A Cross-country Investigation

The long-term relationship between the general economy and healthcare expenditures has been extensively researched, to explain differences in healthcare spending between countries, but the midterm (i.e., business cycle) perspective has been overlooked. This study explores business cycle sensitivity in both public and private parts of the healthcare sector across 32 countries. Responses to the business cycle vary notably, both across spending sources and across countries. Whereas in some countries, consumers and/or governments cut back, in others, private and/or public healthcare buyers tend to spend more. We also assess long-term consequences of business cycle sensitivity and show that public cost cutting during economic downturns deflates the mortality rates, whereas private cut backs increase the long-term growth in total healthcare expenditures. Finally, multiple factors help explain variability in cyclical sensitivity. Private cost cuts during economic downturns are smaller in countries with a predominantly publicly funded healthcare system and more preventive public activities. Public cut backs during contractions are smaller in countries that rely more on tax-based resources rather than social health insurances

Pure and social disparities in distribution of dentists: a cross-sectional province-based study in Iran

During past decades, the number of dentists has continuously increased in Iran. Beside the quantity, the distribution of dentists affects the oral health status of population. The current study aimed to assess the pure and social disparities in distribution of dentists across the provinces in Iran in 2009. Data on provinces' characteristics, including population and social situation, were obtained from multiple sources. The disparity measures (including Gini coefficient, index of dissimilarity, Gaswirth index of disparity and relative index of inequality (RII)) and pairwise correlations were used to evaluate the pure and social disparities in the number of dentists in Iran. On average, there were 28 dentists per 100,000 population in the country. There were substantial pure disparities in the distribution of dentists across the provinces in Iran. The unadjusted and adjusted RII values were 3.82 and 2.13, respectively; indicating area social disparity in favor of people in better-off provinces. There were strong positive correlations between density of dentists and better social rank. It is suggested that the results of this study should be considered in conducting plans for redistribution of dentists in the country. In addition, further analyses are needed to explain these disparities

Unemployed, uneducated and sick: the effects of socioeconomic status on health duration in the European Union

This paper employs a logistic model to measure the effect of socioeconomic and individual characteristics on the length of time an individual remains in good health. It employs an objective measure of physical health, the Physical and Mental Health Problems, Illnesses and Disabilities (PMID) measure in the ECHP dataset, for 13 European countries, for the years 1994-2002. The results show that socioeconomic status does affect the likelihood of individuals entering bad health. In particular, unemployment increases and education decreases the probability of a person ceasing to enjoy good health. Income effects, are however, somewhat weaker, being confined to a small number of countries and being mainly observed only for the highest income quartile. Interesting age and gender effects are also found

The selection of an appropriate count data model for modelling health insurance and health care demand: Case of Indonesia

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.We apply several estimators to Indonesian household data to estimate the relationship between health insurance and the number of outpatient visits to public and private providers. Once endogeneity of insurance is taken into account, there is a 63 percent increase in the average number of public visits by the beneficiaries of mandatory insurance for civil servants. Individuals' decisions to make first contact with private providers is affected by private insurance membership. However, insurance status does not make any difference for the number of future outpatient visits