Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Danish outpatients with alcohol-related cirrhosis

Background and aims: Accurate estimates of the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis are important for clinical decisions about HCC surveillance. We described HCC risk among outpatients with alcoholic cirrhosis and contrasted the risk of death from HCC with the risk of death from variceal bleeding or trauma.Methods: This was a nationwide, registry-based historical cohort study between 2006 and 2018. We included all Danish outpatients with a hospital diagnosis of alcoholic cirrhosis, except those with cancer, those with chronic viral hepatitis or autoimmune liver disease, and those older than 80 years. We followed them through 2018 and described the cumulative risk of HCC and the cumulative risk of death from HCC, variceal bleeding, or trauma.Results: Of the 4553 included patients, 181 developed HCC and 2274 died. The cumulative risk of HCC was 0.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7 to 1.3) after 1 year, 3.6% (95% CI 3.0 to 4.2) after 5 years, and 6.0% (95% CI 5.1 to 7.0) after 10 years, or approximately 0.7% per year. Male gender, older age, and decompensated cirrhosis predicted a higher HCC risk. After 10 years, 6.9% of deaths in the cohort could be attributed to HCC, whereas 6.5% could be attributed to variceal bleeding, and 5.0% to trauma.Conclusions: In 2006–2018, Danish outpatients with alcoholic cirrhosis had an HCC risk of 0.7% per year, and they were nearly as likely to die from variceal bleeding or from trauma as from HCC. The implications are that many potentially harmful examinations are required for every HCC found through surveillance, so interventions targeting the prevention of other causes of death might be more cost-effective

Effects of statins and aspirin on HCC risk in alcohol-related cirrhosis: nationwide emulated trials

Background and Aims: Observational studies have shown an association between statin or aspirin use and a decreased risk of HCC, but the effects of a well-defined treatment strategy remain unknown. We emulated trials of the effects of continuous statin or aspirin use on HCC risk in patients with cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease (ALD cirrhosis).Approach and Results: We specified target trials for statins and, separately, aspirin and emulated them using Danish health care registries. All eligible patients with ALD cirrhosis diagnosed in 2000–2018 were included in either an exposed or an unexposed arm. Patients were followed until HCC or death without HCC. The 5-year risk of HCC was estimated using marginal structural models with inverse probability weighting. Using statins continuously for 5 years compared with not using statins resulted in a relative risk (RR) of HCC of 0.67 (95% CI: 0.45–0.91). The RR of death without HCC was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.65–0.77). For aspirin, the RR was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.60–1.42) for HCC and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.95–1.09) for death without HCC.Conclusions: In patients with ALD cirrhosis, 5 years of continuous statin use resulted in a 33% RR reduction of HCC (number needed to treat = 94) and a 31% RR reduction of death without HCC (number needed to treat = 7). Such strong causal effects are implausible and best explained by uncontrollable confounding, highlighting the need for randomized trials. Aspirin use likely does not affect the risk of HCC or death without HCC

The altered serum lipidome and its diagnostic potential for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver (NAFL)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

[Background] Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is affecting more people globally. Indeed, NAFLD is a spectrum of metabolic dysfunctions that can progress to hepatocellular carcinoma (NAFLD-HCC). This development can occur in a non-cirrhotic liver and thus, often lack clinical surveillance. The aim of this study was to develop non-invasive surveillance method for NAFLD-HCC.[Methods] Using comprehensive ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography mass-spectrometry, we investigated 1,295 metabolites in serum from 249 patients. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated for all detected metabolites and used to establish their diagnostic potential. Logistic regression analysis was used to establish the diagnostic score.[Findings] We show that NAFLD-HCC is characterised by a complete rearrangement of the serum lipidome, which distinguishes NAFLD-HCC from non-cancerous individuals and other HCC patients. We used machine learning to build a diagnostic model for NAFLD-HCC. We quantified predictive metabolites and developed the NAFLD-HCC Diagnostic Score (NHDS), presenting superior diagnostic potential compared to alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). Patients’ metabolic landscapes show a progressive depletion in unsaturated fatty acids and acylcarnitines during transformation. Upregulation of fatty acid transporters in NAFLD-HCC tumours contribute to fatty acid depletion in the serum.[Interpretation] NAFLD-HCC patients can be efficiently distinguished by serum metabolic alterations from the healthy population and from HCC patients related to other aetiologies (alcohol and viral hepatitis). Our model can be used for non-invasive surveillance of individuals with metabolic syndrome(s), allowing for early detection of NAFLD-HCC. Therefore, serum metabolomics may provide valuable insight to monitor patients at risk, including morbidly obese, diabetics, and NAFLD patients.We thank all funding sources: The laboratory of JBA is supported by the Novo Nordisk Foundation (14040, 0058419), Danish Cancer Society (R98-A6446, R167-A10784, R278-A16638), and the Danish Medical Research Council (4183-00118A, 1030-00070B). Data used for validation in this study provided by JMB was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and ’Instituto de Salud Carlos III’ grants (PI18/01075, Miguel Servet Programme CON14/00129 and CPII19/00008) co-financed by ’Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional’ (FEDER); CIBERehd, Spain; IKERBASQUE, Basque foundation for Science, Spain; BIOEF (Basque Foundation for Innovation and Health Research: EiTB Maratoia BIO15/CA/016/BD); Department of Health of the Basque Country (2017111010), Euskadi RIS3 (2019222054, 2020333010); Department of Industry of the Basque Country (Elkartek: KK-2020/00008), AECC Scientific Foundation and European Commission Horizon 2020 program (ESCALON project no.: 825510). Similarly, MAJ was funded by grants from the Fondo Nacional De Ciencia y Tecnología de Chile (FONDECYT #1191145 to M.A.) and the Comisión Nacional de Investigación, Ciencia y Tecnología (CONICYT, AFB170005, CARE Chile UC).Peer reviewe

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on liver cancer management (CERO-19)

Background & Aims: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems and it may have heavily impacted patients with liver cancer (LC). Herein, we evaluated whether the schedule of LC screening or procedures has been interrupted or delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: An international survey evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical practice and clinical trials from March 2020 to June 2020, as the first phase of a multicentre, international, and observational project. The focus was on patients with hepatocellular carcinoma or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, cared for around the world during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave. Results: Ninety-one centres expressed interest to participate and 76 were included in the analysis, from Europe, South America, North America, Asia, and Africa (73.7%,17.1%, 5.3%, 2.6%, and 1.3% per continent, respectively). Eighty-seven percent of the centres modified their clinical practice: 40.8% the diagnostic procedures, 80.9% the screening programme, 50% cancelled curative and/or palliative treatments for LC, and 41.7% modified the liver transplantation programme. Forty-five out of 69 (65.2%) centres in which clinical trials were running modified their treatments in that setting, but 58.1% were able to recruit new patients. The phone call service was modified in 51.4% of centres which had this service before the COVID-19 pandemic (n = 19/37). Conclusions: The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on the routine care of patients with liver cancer. Modifications in screening, diagnostic, and treatment algorithms may have significantly impaired the outcome of patients. Ongoing data collection and future analyses will report the benefits and disadvantages of the strategies implemented, aiding future decision-making. Lay summary: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems globally. Herein, we assessed the impact of the first wave pandemic on patients with liver cancer and found that routine care for these patients has been majorly disrupted, which could have a significant impact on outcomes. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL)

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on liver cancer management (CERO-19).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems and it may have heavily impacted patients with liver cancer (LC). Herein, we evaluated whether the schedule of LC screening or procedures has been interrupted or delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: An international survey evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical practice and clinical trials from March 2020 to June 2020, as the first phase of a multicentre, international, and observational project. The focus was on patients with hepatocellular carcinoma or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, cared for around the world during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave. RESULTS: Ninety-one centres expressed interest to participate and 76 were included in the analysis, from Europe, South America, North America, Asia, and Africa (73.7%, 17.1%, 5.3%, 2.6%, and 1.3% per continent, respectively). Eighty-seven percent of the centres modified their clinical practice: 40.8% the diagnostic procedures, 80.9% the screening programme, 50% cancelled curative and/or palliative treatments for LC, and 41.7% modified the liver transplantation programme. Forty-five out of 69 (65.2%) centres in which clinical trials were running modified their treatments in that setting, but 58.1% were able to recruit new patients. The phone call service was modified in 51.4% of centres which had this service before the COVID-19 pandemic (n = 19/37). CONCLUSIONS: The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on the routine care of patients with liver cancer. Modifications in screening, diagnostic, and treatment algorithms may have significantly impaired the outcome of patients. Ongoing data collection and future analyses will report the benefits and disadvantages of the strategies implemented, aiding future decision-making. LAY SUMMARY: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems globally. Herein, we assessed the impact of the first wave pandemic on patients with liver cancer and found that routine care for these patients has been majorly disrupted, which could have a significant impact on outcomes

Ischemic Damage Represents the Main Risk Factor for Biliary Stricture After Liver Transplantation: A Follow-Up Study in a Danish Population

Biliary complications (BC) are frequently observed following liver transplantation. The aim of the present retrospective study, conducted at an outpatients' tertiary care hospital, was to determine the incidence of biliary complications and risk factors associated with their development in liver transplantation (lT) patients