Extreme events in the European renewable power system:Validation of a modeling framework to estimate renewable electricity production and demand from meteorological data

With the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the coming decades will see a transition of Europe's power system, currently mainly based on fossil fuels towards a higher share of renewable sources. Increasing effects of fluctuations in electricity production and demand as a result of meteorological variability might cause compound events with unforeseen impacts. We constructed and validated a modeling framework to examine such extreme impact events on the European power system. This framework includes six modules: i) a reservoir hydropower inflow and ii) dispatch module; iii) a run-of-river hydropower production module; iv) a wind energy production module; v) a photovoltaic solar energy production model; and vi) an electricity demand module. Based on ERA5 reanalysis input data and present-day capacity distributions, we computed electricity production and demand for a set of European countries in the period 2015–2021 and compared results to observed data. The model captures the variability and extremes of wind, photovoltaic and run-of-river production well, with correlations between modelled and observed data for most countries of more than 0.87, 0.68 and 0.65 respectively. The hydropower dispatch module also functions well, with correlations up to 0.82, but struggles to capture reservoir inflows and operating procedures of some countries. A case study into the meteorological drivers of extreme events in Sweden and Spain showed that the meteorological conditions during extreme events selected by the model and extracted from observational data are similar, giving confidence in the application of the modeling framework for (future changes in) extreme event analysis.</p

How to use the HOME Core Outcome Set for atopic dermatitis trials - a users' guide

The Harmonizing Outcome Measures for Eczema (HOME) initiative has agreed upon the core outcome set for use in atopic dermatitis (AD) clinical trials, but additional guidance is needed to maximise uptake of the core set. This article provides answers to some of the commonly asked questions about using the HOME core outcome set. It also provides data to aid interpretation of trial results and to support sample size calculations for future trials. By encouraging adoption of the core outcome set and facilitating consistent reporting of outcome data, we hope that results of eczema trials will be more comprehensive and readily combined in meta-analyses and patient care will be improved

Do patient characteristics matter when calculating sample size for eczema clinical trials?

BackgroundThe Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) is the core outcome instrument recommended for measuring patient-reported atopic eczema symptoms in clinical trials. To ensure that the statistical significance of clinical trial results is meaningful, trials are often designed by specifying the target difference in the primary outcome as part of the sample size calculation. One method used to specify the target difference is a score that corresponds to a standardized effect size.Objectivesto assess how the standardized effect size of POEM scores vary across age, gender, ethnicity and disease severity.MethodsThis study combined data from five UK-based randomized clinical trials of eczema treatments in order to assess differences in self-reported eczema symptoms (POEM) corresponding to a standardized effect size (0.5 SD of baseline POEM scores) across age, gender, ethnicity and disease severity.ResultsPOEM scores corresponding to 0.5 SD(baseline) were remarkably consistent across participants of varying ages, gender, ethnicity and disease severity from datasets of five UK trials in children (range 2.99–3.45).ConclusionsThis study provides information that can support those designing clinical trials to determine their sample size and can aid individuals interpreting trial results. Further exploration of differences in populations beyond the United Kingdom is needed

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and Gross Domestic Product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water

Comparison of real-world treatment outcomes of systemic immunomodulating therapy in atopic dermatitis patients with dark and light skin types

Background Few data exist on differences in treatment effectiveness and safety in atopic dermatitis patients of different skin types. Objective To investigate treatment outcomes of dupilumab, methotrexate, and ciclosporin, and morphological phenotypes in atopic dermatitis patients, stratified by Fitzpatrick skin type. Methods In an observational prospective cohort study, pooling data from the Dutch TREAT (TREatment of ATopic eczema) NL (treatregister.nl) and UK-Irish A-STAR (Atopic eczema Systemic TherApy Register; astar-register.org) registries, data on morphological phenotypes and treatment outcomes were investigated. Results A total of 235 patients were included (light skin types [LST]: Fitzpatrick skin type 1-3, n = 156 [Ethnicity, White: 94.2%]; dark skin types [DST]: skin type 4-6, n = 68 [Black African/Afro-Caribbean: 25%, South-Asian: 26.5%, and Hispanics: 0%]). DST were younger (19.5 vs 29.0 years; P .05). Limitations Unblinded, non-randomized. Conclusion Atopic dermatitis differs in several characteristics between LST and DST. Skin type may influence treatment effectiveness of dupilumab

Effectiveness of dupilumab treatment in 95 patients with atopic dermatitis: daily practice data

Background: Dupilumab is the first biologic registered for the treatment of moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis (AD), and efficacy was shown in phase III clinical trials (primary outcome at week 16 was reached in 38% of patients). Currently, there are limited daily practice data available for dupilumab, especially when it is combined with systemic immunosuppressants. Objectives: To evaluate dupilumab treatment in daily practice in patients with AD. Methods: In this observational cohort study, we prospectively included all adult patients with AD who had been treated with dupilumab in two university hospitals in the Netherlands. Concomitant systemic immunosuppressive treatment was monitored. Physician-reported outcome measures and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) after ≥ 12 we

Comparative Analyses by Sequencing of Transcriptomes during Skeletal Muscle Development between Pig Breeds Differing in Muscle Growth Rate and Fatness

Understanding the dynamics of muscle transcriptome during development and between breeds differing in muscle growth is necessary to uncover the complex mechanism underlying muscle development. Herein, we present the first transcriptome-wide longissimus dorsi muscle development research concerning Lantang (LT, obese) and Landrace (LR, lean) pig breeds during 10 time-points from 35 days-post-coitus (dpc) to 180 days-post-natum (dpn) using Solexa/Illumina's Genome Analyzer. The data demonstrated that myogenesis was almost completed before 77 dpc, but the muscle phenotypes were still changed from 77 dpc to 28 dpn. Comparative analysis of the two breeds suggested that myogenesis started earlier but progressed more slowly in LT than in LR, the stages ranging from 49 dpc to 77 dpc are critical for formation of different muscle phenotypes. 595 differentially expressed myogenesis genes were identified, and their roles in myogenesis were discussed. Furthermore, GSK3B, IKBKB, ACVR1, ITGA and STMN1 might contribute to later myogenesis and more muscle fibers in LR than LT. Some myogenesis inhibitors (ID1, ID2, CABIN1, MSTN, SMAD4, CTNNA1, NOTCH2, GPC3 and HMOX1) were higher expressed in LT than in LR, which might contribute to more slow muscle differentiation in LT than in LR. We also identified several genes which might contribute to intramuscular adipose differentiation. Most important, we further proposed a novel model in which MyoD and MEF2A controls the balance between intramuscular adipogenesis and myogenesis by regulating CEBP family; Myf5 and MEF2C are essential during the whole myogenesis process while MEF2D affects muscle growth and maturation. The MRFs and MEF2 families are also critical for the phenotypic differences between the two pig breeds. Overall, this study contributes to elucidating the mechanism underlying muscle development, which could provide valuable information for pig meat quality improvement

How to use the Harmonising Outcome Measures for Eczema Core Outcome Set for atopic dermatitis trials: a users’ guide

BackgroundThe Harmonising Outcome Measures for Eczema (HOME) initiative has agreed upon the Core Outcome Set (COS) for use in atopic dermatitis (AD) clinical trials, but additional guidance is needed to maximize its uptake.ObjectivesTo provide answers to some of the commonly asked questions about using the HOME COS; to provide data to help with the interpretation of trial results; and to support sample size calculations for future trials.Methods and resultsWe provide practical guidance on the use of the HOME COS for investigators planning clinical trials in patients with AD. It answers some of the common questions about using the HOME COS, how to access the outcome measurement instruments, what training/resources are needed to use them appropriately and clarifies when the COS is applicable. We also provide exemplar data to inform sample size calculations for eczema trials and encourage standardized data collection and reporting of the COS.ConclusionsBy encouraging adoption of the COS and facilitating consistent reporting of outcome data, it is hoped that the results of eczema trials will be more comprehensive and readily combined in meta-analyses and that patient care will subsequently be improved

Measuring atopic eczema symptoms in clinical practice: The first consensus statement from the Harmonising Outcome Measures for Eczema in clinical practice initiative

Background: Measuring patient-centered outcomes in clinical practice is valuable for monitoring patients and advancing real-world research. A new initiative from the Harmonising Outcome Measures for Eczema (HOME) group aims to recommend what might be recorded for atopic eczema patients in routine clinical care. Objectives: Prioritize outcome domains to measure atopic eczema in clinical practice and select valid and practical outcome measurement instruments for the highest-priority domain. Methods: An online survey of HOME members identified and ranked 21 possible health domains. Suitable instruments were then selected for the top-prioritized domain at the HOME VI meeting, using established consensus processes informed by systematic reviews of instrument quality. Results: Patient-reported symptoms was the top-prioritized domain. In accordance with psychometric properties and feasibility, there was consensus that the recommended instruments to measure atopic eczema symptoms in clinical practice are the POEM, the PO-SCORAD index, or both. The numeric rating scale for itch received support pending definition and validation in atopic eczema. Conclusion: Following the first step of the HOME Clinical Practice initiative, we endorse using the POEM, the PO-SCORAD index, or both for measuring atopic eczema symptoms in clinical practice. Additional high-priority domains for clinical practice will be assessed at subsequent HOME meetings