Predicting Upper Limb Motor Impairment Recovery after Stroke: A Mixture Model

Objective: Spontaneous recovery is an important determinant of upper extremity recovery after stroke and has been described by the 70% proportional recovery rule for the Fugl–Meyer motor upper extremity (FM-UE) scale. However, this rule is criticized for overestimating the predictability of FM-UE recovery. Our objectives were to develop a longitudinal mixture model of FM-UE recovery, identify FM-UE recovery subgroups, and internally validate the model predictions. Methods: We developed an exponential recovery function with the following parameters: subgroup assignment probability, proportional recovery coefficient rk, time constant in weeks τk, and distribution of the initial FM-UE scores. We fitted the model to FM-UE measurements of 412 first-ever ischemic stroke patients and cross-validated endpoint predictions and FM-UE recovery cluster assignment. Results: The model distinguished 5 subgroups with different recovery parameters (r1 = 0.09, τ1 = 5.3, r2 = 0.46, τ2 = 10.1, r3 = 0.86, τ3 = 9.8, r4 = 0.89, τ4 = 2.7, r5 = 0.93, τ5 = 1.2). Endpoint FM-UE was predicted with a median absolute error of 4.8 (interquartile range [IQR] = 1.3–12.8) at 1 week poststroke and 4.2 (IQR = 1.3–9.8) at 2 weeks. Overall accuracy of assignment to the poor (subgroup 1), moderate (subgroups 2 and 3), and good (subgroups 4 and 5) FM-UE recovery clusters was 0.79 (95% equal-tailed interval [ETI] = 0.78–0.80) at 1 week poststroke and 0.81 (95% ETI = 0.80–0.82) at 2 weeks. Interpretation: FM-UE recovery reflects different subgroups, each with its own recovery profile. Cross-validation indicates that FM-UE endpoints and FM-UE recovery clusters can be well predicted. Results will contribute to the understanding of upper limb recovery patterns in the first 6 months after stroke. ANN NEUROL 2020

Cerebellar Cathodal Transcranial Direct Stimulation and Performance on a Verb Generation Task: A Replication Study

The role of the cerebellum in cognitive processing is increasingly recognized but still poorly understood. A recent study in this field applied cerebellar Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (c-tDCS) to the right cerebellum to investigate the role of prefrontal-cerebellar loops in language aspects of cognition. Results showed that the improvement in participants' verbal response times on a verb generation task was facilitated immediately after cathodal c-tDCS, compared to anodal or sham c-tDCS. The primary aim of the present study is to replicate these findings and additionally to investigate possible longer term effects. A crossover within-subject design was used, comparing cathodal and sham c-tDCS. The experiment consisted of two visits with an interval of one week. Our results show no direct contribution of cathodal c-tDCS over the cerebellum to language task performance. However, one week later, the group receiving cathodal c-tDCS in the first visit show less improvement and increased variability in their verbal response times during the second visit, compared to the group receiving sham c-tDCS in the first visit. These findings suggest a potential negative effect of c-tDCS and warrant further investigation into long term effects of c-tDCS before undertaking clinical studies with poststroke patients with aphasia

No effect of anodal tDCS on motor cortical excitability and no evidence for responders in a large double-blind placebo-controlled trial

Background: Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) has emerged as a non-invasive brain stimulation technique. Most studies show that anodal tDCS increases cortical excitability. However, this effect has been found to be highly variable. Objective: To test the effect of anodal tDCS on cortical excitability and the interaction effect of two participant-specific factors that may explain individual differences in sensitivity to anodal tDCS: the Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor Val66Met polymorphism (BDNF genotype) and the latency difference between anterior-posterior and lateromedial TMS pulses (APLM latency). Methods: In 62 healthy participants, cortical excitability over the left motor cortex was measured before and after anodal tDCS at 2 mA for 20 min in a pre-registered, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial with repeated measures. Results: We did not find a main effect of anodal tDCS, nor an interaction effect of the participant-specific predictors. Moreover, further analyses did not provide evidence for the existence of responders and non-responders. Conclusion: This study indicates that anodal tDCS at 2 mA for 20 min may not reliably affect cortical excitability

Computerised patient-specific prediction of the recovery profile of upper limb capacity within stroke services: The next step

Introduction: Predicting upper limb capacity recovery is important to set treatment goals, select therapies and plan discharge. We introduce a prediction model of the patient-specific profile of upper limb capacity recovery up to 6 months poststroke by incorporating all serially assessed clinical information from patients. Methods: Model input was recovery profile of 450 patients with a first-ever ischaemic hemispheric stroke measured using the Action Research Arm Test (ARAT). Subjects received at least three assessment sessions, starting within the first week until 6 months poststroke. We developed mixed-effects models that are able to deal with one or multiple measurements per subject, measured at non-fixed time points. The prediction accuracy of the different models was established by a fivefold cross-validation procedure. Results: A model with only ARAT time course, finger extension and shoulder abduction performed as good as models with more covariates. For the final model, cross-validation prediction errors at 6 months poststroke decreased as the number of measurements per subject increased, from a median error of 8.4 points on the ARAT (Q1-Q3:1.7-28.1) when one measurement early poststroke was used, to 2.3 (Q1-Q3:1-7.2) for seven measurements. An online version of the recovery model was developed that can be linked to data acquisition environments. Conclusio

TMS motor mapping: Comparing the absolute reliability of digital reconstruction methods to the golden standard

Background: Changes in transcranial magnetic stimulation motor map parameters can be used to quantify plasticity in the human motor cortex. The golden standard uses a counting analysis of motor evoked potentials (MEPs) acquired with a predefined grid. Recently, digital reconstruction methods have been proposed, allowing MEPs to be acquired with a faster pseudorandom procedure. However, the reliability of these reconstruction methods has never been compared to the golden standard. Objective: To compare the absolute reliability of the reconstruction methods with the golden standard. Methods: In 21 healthy subjects, both grid and pseudorandom acquisition were performed twice on the first day and once on the second day. The standard error of measurement was calculated for the counting analysis and the digital reconstructions. Results: The standard error of measurement was at least equal using digital reconstructions. Conclusion: Pseudorandom acquisition and digital reconstruction can be used in intervention studies without sacrificing reliability

Cerebellar transcranial direct current stimulation interacts with BDNF Val66Met in motor learning

Background: Cerebellar transcranial direct current stimulation has been reported to enhance motor associative learning and motor adaptation, holding promise for clinical application in patients with movement disorders. However, behavioral benefits from cerebellar tDCS have been inconsistent. Objective: Identifying determinants of treatment success is necessary. BDNF Val66Met is a candidate determinant, because the polymorphism is associated with motor skill learning and BDNF is thought to mediate tDCS effects. Methods: We undertook two cerebellar tDCS studies in subjects genotyped for BDNF Val66Met. Subjects performed an eyeblink conditioning task and received sham, anodal or cathodal tDCS (N = 117, between-subjects design) or a vestibulo-ocular reflex adaptation task and received sham and anodal tDCS (N = 51 subjects, within-subjects design). Performance was quantified as a learning parameter from 0 to 100%. We investigated (1) the distribution of the learning parameter with mixture modeling presented as the mean (M), standard deviation (S) and proportion (P) of the groups, and (2) the role of BDNF Val66Met and cerebellar tDCS using linear regression presented as the regression coefficients (B) and odds ratios (OR) with equally-tailed intervals (ETIs). Results: For the eyeblink conditioning task, we found distinct groups of learners (MLearner = 67.2%; SLearner = 14.7%; PLearner = 61.6%) and non-learners (MNon-learner = 14.2%; SNon-learner = 8.0%; PNon-learner = 38.4%). Carriers of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism were more likely to be learners (OR = 2.7 [1.2 6.2]). Within the group of learners, anodal tDCS supported eyeblink conditioning in BDNF Val66Met non-carriers (B = 11.9% 95%ETI = [0.8 23.0]%), but not in carriers (B = 1.0% 95%ETI = [-10.2 12.1]%). For the vestibulo-ocular reflex adaptation task, we found no effect of BDNF Val66Met (B = −2.0% 95%ETI = [-8.7 4.7]%) or anodal tDCS in either carriers (B = 3.4% 95%ETI = [-3.2 9.5]%) or non-carriers (B = 0.6% 95%ETI = [-3.4 4.8]%). Finally, we performed additional saccade and visuomotor adaptation experiments (N = 72) to investigate the general role of BDNF Val66Met in cerebellum-dependent learning and found no difference between carriers and non-carriers for both saccade (B = 1.0% 95%ETI = [-8.6 10.6]%) and visuomotor adaptation (B = 2.7% 95%ETI = [-2.5 7.9]%). Conclusions: The specific role for BDNF Val66Met in eyeblink conditioning, but not vestibulo-ocular reflex adaptation, saccade adaptation or visuomotor adaptation could be related to dominance of the role of simple spike suppression of cerebellar Purkinje cells with a high baseline firing frequency in eyeblink conditioning. Susceptibility of non-carriers to anodal tDCS in eyeblink conditioning might be explained by a relatively larger effect of tDCS-induced subthreshold depolarization in this group, which might increase the spontaneous firing frequency up to the level of that of the carriers

Investigations of the Mars Upper Atmosphere with ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter

The Martian mesosphere and thermosphere, the region above about 60 km, is not the primary target of the ExoMars 2016 mission but its Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) can explore it and address many interesting issues, either in-situ during the aerobraking period or remotely during the regular mission. In the aerobraking phase TGO peeks into thermospheric densities and temperatures, in a broad range of latitudes and during a long continuous period. TGO carries two instruments designed for the detection of trace species, NOMAD and ACS, which will use the solar occultation technique. Their regular sounding at the terminator up to very high altitudes in many different molecular bands will represent the first time that an extensive and precise dataset of densities and hopefully temperatures are obtained at those altitudes and local times on Mars. But there are additional capabilities in TGO for studying the upper atmosphere of Mars, and we review them briefly. Our simulations suggest that airglow emissions from the UV to the IR might be observed outside the terminator. If eventually confirmed from orbit, they would supply new information about atmospheric dynamics and variability. However, their optimal exploitation requires a special spacecraft pointing, currently not considered in the regular operations but feasible in our opinion. We discuss the synergy between the TGO instruments, specially the wide spectral range achieved by combining them. We also encourage coordinated operations with other Mars-observing missions capable of supplying simultaneous measurements of its upper atmosphere

Psychology and aggression

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68264/2/10.1177_002200275900300301.pd

Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study-time trends and predictors of survival : a cohort study

BACKGROUND:Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004-2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these.METHODS:Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient's last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient's death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient's last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.RESULTS:Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin's lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004-2010 in this large observational cohort.CONCLUSIONS:The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC