Critical transition and spatial organization in climate and engineering systems

Diese Arbeit zielt darauf ab, die raumzeitlichen Regelmäßigkeiten an Übergängen aufzudecken, die in saisonalen Klima- und Ingenieursystemen beobachtet werden, indem moderne Methoden der komplexen Systemwissenschaft verwendet werden. Das erste System ist der indische Sommermonsun - eine Regenzeit, deren jährliche Schwankungen das Leben und den Wohlstand von mehr als einer Milliarde Menschen auf dem indischen Subkontinent beeinflussen und die Wirtschaft des von der Landwirtschaft abhängigen Landes stark beeinträchtigen. Insbesondere die Kenntnis des zeitlichen Ablaufs des Übergangs vom Vormonsun zum Monsun ist für die Planung landwirtschaftlicher Aktivitäten dringend erforderlich. Die Vorhersage des Monsunzeitpunkts über dem indischen Kontinent bleibt jedoch eine große wissenschaftliche Herausforderung. Das zweite ist ein Verbrennungssystem, das anfällig für ein katastrophales Phänomen namens thermoakustische Instabilität ist, das verhindert, dass das Verbrennungssystem unter klimafreundlichen Bedingungen betrieben wird. Eine solche Brennkammer ist typisch für Energie- und Antriebssysteme wie Gasturbinentriebwerke, Boiler und Raketen. Zu verstehen, wann der Übergang zur thermoakustischen Instabilität auftritt und wie dieser Übergang unterdrückt werden kann, sind Schlüsselfragen für die Entwicklung klimafreundlicher Motoren. Diese Dissertation liefert ein neues Verständnis des indischen Sommermonsuns und der thermoakustischen Instabilität durch auf statistischer Physik basierende Ansätze, die verborgene Merkmale in diesen Systemen nahe ihren jeweiligen Übergängen aufdecken.This thesis aims to reveal the spatiotemporal regularities at transitions observed in seasonal climate and engineering systems by utilizing modern methods of complex systems science. The first system is the Indian Summer Monsoon - a rainy season whose yearly variability affects the life and prosperity of more than a billion people in the Indian subcontinent and strongly impacts the economy of the agriculture-dependent country. In particular, knowledge of the timing of the transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon is greatly needed for the planning of agriculture activities. However, the prediction of monsoon timing over the Indian continent remains a significant scientific challenge. The second is a combustion system prone to a catastrophic phenomenon called thermoacoustic instability, which prevents the combustion system from being operated in climate-friendly conditions. Such a combustor is typical in power and propulsion systems such as gas turbine engines, boilers, and rockets. Understanding when the transition to thermoacoustic instability occurs and how to suppress this transition are key questions for developing climate-friendly engines. This thesis provides a new understanding of the Indian Summer Monsoon and thermoacoustic instability through statistical physics-based approaches that reveal hidden features in these systems near their respective transitions

Seeds of phase transition to thermoacoustic instability

Tackling the problem of emissions is at the forefront of scientific research today. While industrial engines designed to operate in stable regimes produce emissions, attempts to operate them at 'greener' conditions often fail due to a dangerous phenomenon known as thermoacoustic instability. Hazardous high amplitude periodic oscillations during thermoacoustic instability lead to the failure of these engines in power plants, aircraft, and rockets. To prevent this catastrophe in the first place, identifying the onset of thermoacoustic instability is required. However, detecting the onset is a major obstacle preventing further progress due to spatiotemporal variability in the reacting field. Here, we show how to overcome this obstacle by discovering a critical condition in certain zones of the combustor, which indicates the onset of thermoacoustic instability. In particular, we reveal the critical value of the local heat release rate that allows us to distinguish stable operating regimes from hazardous operations. We refer to these zones as seeds of the phase transition because they show the earliest manifestation of the impending instability. The increase in correlations in the heat release rate between these zones indicates the transition from a chaotic state to a periodic state. Remarkably, we found that observations at the seeds of the phase transition enable us to predict when the onset occurs, well before the emergence of dangerous large-amplitude periodic acoustic pressure oscillations. Our results contribute to the operation of combustors in more environment-friendly conditions. The presented approach is applicable to other systems exhibiting such phase transitions.Indian Institute of Technology Madrashttps://doi.org/10.13039/501100003845Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety and the International Climate Initiative GermanyDepartment of Science and Technology IndiaRussian Foundation for Basic Researchhttps://doi.org/10.13039/501100002261Peer Reviewe

Preventing a global transition to thermoacoustic instability by targeting local dynamics

The burning of fossil fuels to generate power produces harmful emissions. Lowering such emissions in gas turbine engines is possible by operating them at fuel-lean conditions. However, such strategies often fail because, under fuel-lean conditions, the combustors are prone to catastrophic high-amplitude oscillations known as thermoacoustic instability. We reveal that, as an operating parameter is varied in time, the transition to thermoacoustic instability is initiated at specific spatial regions before it is observed in larger regions of the combustor. We use two indicators to discover such inceptive regions: the growth of variance of fluctuations in spatially resolved heat release rate and its spatiotemporal evolution. In this study, we report experimental evidence of suppression of the global transition to thermoacoustic instability through targeted modification of local dynamics at the inceptive regions. We strategically arrange slots on the flame anchor, which, in turn, reduce the local heat release rate fluctuations at the inceptive regions and thus suppress the global transition to thermoacoustic instability. Our results open new perspectives for combustors that are more environmental-friendly. © 2022, The Author(s)

Chitohexaose Activates Macrophages by Alternate Pathway through TLR4 and Blocks Endotoxemia

Sepsis is a consequence of systemic bacterial infections leading to hyper activation of immune cells by bacterial products resulting in enhanced release of mediators of inflammation. Endotoxin (LPS) is a major component of the outer membrane of Gram negative bacteria and a critical factor in pathogenesis of sepsis. Development of antagonists that inhibit the storm of inflammatory molecules by blocking Toll like receptors (TLR) has been the main stay of research efforts. We report here that a filarial glycoprotein binds to murine macrophages and human monocytes through TLR4 and activates them through alternate pathway and in the process inhibits LPS mediated classical activation which leads to inflammation associated with endotoxemia. The active component of the nematode glycoprotein mediating alternate activation of macrophages was found to be a carbohydrate residue, Chitohexaose. Murine macrophages and human monocytes up regulated Arginase-1 and released high levels of IL-10 when incubated with chitohexaose. Macrophages of C3H/HeJ mice (non-responsive to LPS) failed to get activated by chitohexaose suggesting that a functional TLR4 is critical for alternate activation of macrophages also. Chitohexaose inhibited LPS induced production of inflammatory molecules TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6 by macropahges in vitro and in vivo in mice. Intraperitoneal injection of chitohexaose completely protected mice against endotoxemia when challenged with a lethal dose of LPS. Furthermore, Chitohexaose was found to reverse LPS induced endotoxemia in mice even 6/24/48 hrs after its onset. Monocytes of subjects with active filarial infection displayed characteristic alternate activation markers and were refractory to LPS mediated inflammatory activation suggesting an interesting possibility of subjects with filarial infections being less prone to develop of endotoxemia. These observations that innate activation of alternate pathway of macrophages by chtx through TLR4 has offered novel opportunities to cell biologists to study two mutually exclusive activation pathways of macrophages being mediated through a single receptor

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Inhibiting the onset of thermoacoustic instability through targeted control of critical regions

This experimental study investigates the dynamical transition from stable operation to thermoacoustic instability in a turbulent bluff-body stabilised dump combustor. We conduct experiments to acquire acoustic pressure and local heat release rate fluctuations and use them to characterise this transition as we decrease the equivalence ratio towards a fuel-lean setting. More importantly, we observe a significant increase in local heat release rate fluctuations at critical locations well before thermoacoustic instability occurs. One of these critical locations is the stagnation zone in front of the bluff-body. By strategically positioning slots (perforations) on the bluff-body, we ensure the reduction of the growth of local heat release rate fluctuations at the stagnation zone near the bluff-body well before the onset of thermoacoustic instability. We show that this reduction in local heat release rate fluctuations inhibits the transition to thermoacoustic instability. We find that modified configurations of the bluff-body that do not quench the local heat release rate fluctuations at the stagnation zone result in the transition to thermoacoustic instability. We also reveal that an effective suppression strategy based on the growth of local heat release rate fluctuations requires an optimisation of the slots' area-ratio for a given bluff-body position. Further, the suppression strategy also depends on the spatial distribution of perforations on the bluff-body. Notably, an inappropriate distribution of the slots, which does not quench the local heat release rate fluctuations at the stagnation zone but creates new critical regions, may even result in a dramatic increase in the amplitudes of pressure oscillations

Studies on reconstruction of large skin defects following mammary tumor excision in dogs

Aim: The main objective of the study was to describe the use of skin fold advancement flaps (SFAFs) and other reconstructive techniques for closure of large skin defects following mammary tumor excision in dogs. Materials and Methods: Twelve dogs underwent reconstruction of large ventral skin defects following mammary tumor excision with wide margins. Skin fold flaps (flank fold flap and elbow fold flap) were elevated from the flank and elbow region, respectively, and transposed and sutured onto the large ventral skin defect following mastectomy in all the dogs. In addition to the skin fold flaps, other reconstructive techniques such as undermining, walking sutures, and tension-relieving suture techniques were followed during surgery in the closure of large skin defects without skin tension and compromising limb mobility. The skin flap viability was assessed subjectively by gross observation of the flap such as color, temperature, capillary perfusion, and cosmetic appearance, and scoring (1-4) was done. Tissue samples were collected from a surgical site on days 3, 6, and 12 post-operatively for histopathological evaluation and healing status of the skin flap. Results: All the surgical wounds healed primarily, without any major complications and the skin flap remained healthy throughout the healing process post-operatively. Distal flap necrosis was noticed in one case and necrosis of skin flap between two suture lines was noticed in another case in which the necrotized distal portion healed by secondary intention after 7 days. The mean survival of subdermal plexus flap in the above cases was 98% which was a subjective evaluation based on surface area of the skin defect measured by Image 'J software and the flap dimensions. The average healing of skin flap in days was 14.91±0.86. Conclusion: The SFAFs along with other reconstructive techniques help in the reconstruction of large ventral skin defects following mastectomy in dogs without much compromising limb mobility

International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortiu (INICC) report, data summary of 43 countries for 2007-2012. Device-associated module

We report the results of an International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) surveillance study from January 2007-December 2012 in 503 intensive care units (ICUs) in Latin America, Asia, Africa, and Europe. During the 6-year study using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) U.S. National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) definitions for device-associated health care–associated infection (DA-HAI), we collected prospective data from 605,310 patients hospitalized in the INICC's ICUs for an aggregate of 3,338,396 days. Although device utilization in the INICC's ICUs was similar to that reported from ICUs in the U.S. in the CDC's NHSN, rates of device-associated nosocomial infection were higher in the ICUs of the INICC hospitals: the pooled rate of central line–associated bloodstream infection in the INICC's ICUs, 4.9 per 1,000 central line days, is nearly 5-fold higher than the 0.9 per 1,000 central line days reported from comparable U.S. ICUs. The overall rate of ventilator-associated pneumonia was also higher (16.8 vs 1.1 per 1,000 ventilator days) as was the rate of catheter-associated urinary tract infection (5.5 vs 1.3 per 1,000 catheter days). Frequencies of resistance of Pseudomonas isolates to amikacin (42.8% vs 10%) and imipenem (42.4% vs 26.1%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates to ceftazidime (71.2% vs 28.8%) and imipenem (19.6% vs 12.8%) were also higher in the INICC's ICUs compared with the ICUs of the CDC's NHSN