A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry

This is the published version.We developed a spreadsheet-based model for the use of managers, conservationists, and biologists for projecting the effects of climate change on coral reefs at local-to-regional scales. The COMBO (Coral Mortality and Bleaching Output) model calculates the impacts to coral reefs from changes in average SST and CO2 concentrations, and from high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. The model uses a probabilistic assessment of the frequency of high temperature events under a future climate to address scientific uncertainties about potential adverse effects. COMBO offers data libraries and default factors for three selected regions (Hawai’i, Great Barrier Reef, and Caribbean), but it is structured with user-selectable parameter values and data input options, making possible modifications to reflect local conditions or to incorporate local expertise. Preliminary results from sensitivity analyses and simulation examples for Hawai’i demonstrate the relative importance of high temperature events, increased average temperature, and increased CO2 concentration on the future status of coral reefs; illustrate significant interactions among variables; and allow comparisons of past environmental history with future predictions

Identification and structure elucidation of epoxyjanthitrems from Lolium perenne infected with the endophytic fungus Epichloë festucae var. lolii and determination of the tremorgenic and anti-insect activity of epoxyjanthitrem I.

Epoxyjanthitrems I-IV (1-4) and epoxyjanthitriol (5) were isolated from seed of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) infected with the endophytic fungus Epichloë festucae var. lolii. Although structures for epoxyjanthitrems I-IV have previously been proposed in the literature, this is the first report of a full structural elucidation yielding NMR (Nuclear magnetic resonance) assignments for all five epoxyjanthitrem compounds, and additionally, it is the first isolation of epoxyjanthitriol (5). Epoxyjanthitrem I induced tremors in mice and gave a dose dependent reduction in weight gain and feeding for porina (Wiseana cervinata), a common pasture pest in New Zealand. These data suggest that epoxyjanthitrems are involved in the observed effects of the AR37 endophyte on livestock and insect pests

From differentiating metabolites to biomarkers

The current developments in metabolomics and metabolic profiling technologies have led to the discovery of several new metabolic biomarkers. Finding metabolites present in significantly different levels between sample sets, however, does not necessarily make these metabolites useful biomarkers. The route to valid and applicable biomarkers (biomarker qualification) is long and demands a significant amount of work. In this overview, we critically discuss the current state-of-the-art of metabolic biomarker discovery, with highlights and shortcomings, and suggest a pathway to clinical usefulness

Precise Doppler Monitoring of Barnard's Star

We present 248 precise Doppler measurements of Barnard's Star (Gl 699), the second nearest star system to Earth, obtained from Lick and Keck Observatories during 25 years between 1987 and 2012. The early precision was 20 \ms{} but was 2 \ms{} during the last 8 years, constituting the most extensive and sensitive search for Doppler signatures of planets around this stellar neighbor. We carefully analyze the 136 Keck radial velocities spanning 8 years by first applying a periodogram analysis to search for nearly circular orbits. We find no significant periodic Doppler signals with amplitudes above $\sim$2 \ms{}, setting firm upper limits on the minimum mass (\msini) of any planets with orbital periods from 0.1 to 1000 days. Using a Monte Carlo analysis for circular orbits, we determine that planetary companions to Barnard's Star with masses above 2 \mearth{} and periods below 10 days would have been detected. Planets with periods up to 2 years and masses above 10 \mearth{} (0.03 \mjup) are also ruled out. A similar analysis allowing for eccentric orbits yields comparable mass limits. The habitable zone of Barnard's Star appears to be devoid of roughly Earth-mass planets or larger, save for face-on orbits. Previous claims of planets around the star by van de Kamp are strongly refuted. The radial velocity of Barnard's Star increases with time at $4.515\pm0.002$ \msy{}, consistent with the predicted geometrical effect, secular acceleration, that exchanges transverse for radial components of velocity.Comment: 21 pages & 11 figures; accepted to ApJ for publication; revision comments: the conclusions and results remain unchanged, removed the last paragraph in section 4.2, a few minor changes to the text, replaced figure 7 with figures 7 and 8, corrected typos in the rv data tables (tables 2 and 3, data downloadable from ApJ

Handheld computers for self-administered sensitive data collection: A comparative study in Peru

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Low-cost handheld computers (PDA) potentially represent an efficient tool for collecting sensitive data in surveys. The goal of this study is to evaluate the quality of sexual behavior data collected with handheld computers in comparison with paper-based questionnaires.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A PDA-based program for data collection was developed using Open-Source tools. In two cross-sectional studies, we compared data concerning sexual behavior collected with paper forms to data collected with PDA-based forms in Ancon (Lima).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The first study enrolled 200 participants (18–29 years). General agreement between data collected with paper format and handheld computers was 86%. Categorical variables agreement was between 70.5% and 98.5% (Kappa: 0.43–0.86) while numeric variables agreement was between 57.1% and 79.8% (Spearman: 0.76–0.95). Agreement and correlation were higher in those who had completed at least high school than those with less education. The second study enrolled 198 participants. Rates of responses to sensitive questions were similar between both kinds of questionnaires. However, the number of inconsistencies (p = 0.0001) and missing values (p = 0.001) were significantly higher in paper questionnaires.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed the value of the use of handheld computers for collecting sensitive data, since a high level of agreement between paper and PDA responses was reached. In addition, a lower number of inconsistencies and missing values were found with the PDA-based system. This study has demonstrated that it is feasible to develop a low-cost application for handheld computers, and that PDAs are feasible alternatives for collecting field data in a developing country.</p

The rise and fall of the king : the correlation between FO Aquarii's low states and the White Dwarf's Spindown

The intermediate polar FO Aquarii experienced its first-reported low-accretion states in 2016, 2017, and 2018. We establish that these low states occurred shortly after the system's white dwarf (WD) began spinning down, after having spent a quarter-century spinning up. FO Aquarii is the only intermediate polar whose period derivative has undergone a sign change, and it has now done so twice. By combining our spin-pulse timings with previous data, we determine that the WD's spin period has varied quasi-sinusoidally since the system's discovery, and an extrapolation predicts that the white dwarf was spinning down during newly discovered low states in photographic plates from 1964, 1965, and 1974. Thus, FO Aquarii's low states appear to occur exclusively during epochs of spindown. Additionally, our time-series photometry of the 2016-18 low states reveals that the mode of accretion is extremely sensitive to the accretion rate; when the system is fainter than V~14.0, the accretion onto the WD is largely stream-fed, but when it is brighter, it is almost exclusively disk-fed. The system's grazing eclipse remained detectable throughout all observations, confirming the uninterrupted presence of a disk-like structure, regardless of the accretion state. Our observations are consistent with theoretical predictions that during the low states, the accretion disk dissipates into a ring of diamagnetic blobs. Finally, a new XMM-Newton observation from 2017 indicates that the system's anomalously soft X-ray spectrum and diminished X-ray luminosity in the wake of the 2016 low state appear to be long-lasting changes compared to pre-2016 observations.peer-reviewe

ICDP workshop on the Lake Tanganyika Scientific Drilling Project: a late Miocene–present record of climate, rifting, and ecosystem evolution from the world's oldest tropical lake

The Neogene and Quaternary are characterized by enormous changes in global climate and environments, including global cooling and the establishment of northern high-latitude glaciers. These changes reshaped global ecosystems, including the emergence of tropical dry forests and savannahs that are found in Africa today, which in turn may have influenced the evolution of humans and their ancestors. However, despite decades of research we lack long, continuous, well-resolved records of tropical climate, ecosystem changes, and surface processes necessary to understand their interactions and influences on evolutionary processes. Lake Tanganyika, Africa, contains the most continuous, long continental climate record from the mid-Miocene (∼10 Ma) to the present anywhere in the tropics and has long been recognized as a top-priority site for scientific drilling. The lake is surrounded by the Miombo woodlands, part of the largest dry tropical biome on Earth. Lake Tanganyika also harbors incredibly diverse endemic biota and an entirely unexplored deep microbial biosphere, and it provides textbook examples of rift segmentation, fault behavior, and associated surface processes. To evaluate the interdisciplinary scientific opportunities that an ICDP drilling program at Lake Tanganyika could offer, more than 70 scientists representing 12 countries and a variety of scientific disciplines met in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in June 2019. The team developed key research objectives in basin evolution, source-to-sink sedimentology, organismal evolution, geomicrobiology, paleoclimatology, paleolimnology, terrestrial paleoecology, paleoanthropology, and geochronology to be addressed through scientific drilling on Lake Tanganyika. They also identified drilling targets and strategies, logistical challenges, and education and capacity building programs to be carried out through the project. Participants concluded that a drilling program at Lake Tanganyika would produce the first continuous Miocene–present record from the tropics, transforming our understanding of global environmental change, the environmental context of human origins in Africa, and providing a detailed window into the dynamics, tempo and mode of biological diversification and adaptive radiations.© Author(s) 2020. This open access article is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License

High-Performance Work Systems and Organizational Performance in Emerging Economies: Evidence from MNEs in Turkey

This study examines the association between the usage of high-performance work systems (HPWS) by subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Turkey and employee and subsidiary level outcomes. The study is based on a survey of 148 MNE subsidiaries operating in Turkey. The results show that the usage of HPWS has a significant positive impact on employee effectiveness. However, their impact on employee skills and development, and organizational financial performance are far less clear. Our findings highlight the extent to which HWPS need to be adapted to take account of context-specific institutional realities. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg