Demand forecasting: a case study in the food industry

The use of forecasting methods is nowadays regarded as a business ally since it supports both the operational and the strategic decision-making processes. This paper is based on a research project aiming the development of demand forecasting models for a company (designated here by PR) that operates in the food business, more specifically in the delicatessen segment. In particular, we focused on demand forecasting models that can serve as a tool to support production planning and inventory management at the company. The analysis of the company’s operations led to the development of a new demand forecasting tool based on a combination of forecasts, which is now being used and tested by the company.This work has been supported by FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/201

Endothelial Progenitor Cells as a Potential Biomarker in Interstitial Lung Disease Associated with Rheumatoid Arthritis

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) increases morbidity and mortality in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Although the pathogenesis of ILD associated with RA (RA-ILD(+)) remains poorly defined, vascular tissue is crucial in lung physiology. In this context, endothelial progenitor cells (EPC) are involved in endothelial tissue repair. However, little is known about their implication in RA-ILD(+). Accordingly, we aimed to investigate the potential role of EPC related to endothelial damage in RA-ILD(+). EPC quantification in peripheral blood from 80 individuals (20 RA-ILD(+) patients, 25 RA-ILD(-) patients, 21 idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients, and 14 healthy controls) was performed by flow cytometry. EPC were considered as CD34(+), CD45(low), CD309(+) and CD133(+). A significant increase in EPC frequency in RA-ILD(+) patients, as well as in RA-ILD(-) and IPF patients, was found when compared with controls (p < 0.001, p = 0.02 and p < 0.001, respectively). RA-ILD(+) patients exhibited a higher EPC frequency than the RA-ILD(-) ones (p = 0.003), but lower than IPF patients (p < 0.001). Our results suggest that EPC increase may represent a reparative compensatory mechanism in patients with RA-ILD(+). The degree of EPC frequency may help to identify the presence of ILD in RA patients and to discriminate RA-ILD(+) from IPF

A Model for the Development of the Rhizobial and Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbioses in Legumes and Its Use to Understand the Roles of Ethylene in the Establishment of these two Symbioses

We propose a model depicting the development of nodulation and arbuscular mycorrhizae. Both processes are dissected into many steps, using Pisum sativum L. nodulation mutants as a guideline. For nodulation, we distinguish two main developmental programs, one epidermal and one cortical. Whereas Nod factors alone affect the cortical program, bacteria are required to trigger the epidermal events. We propose that the two programs of the rhizobial symbiosis evolved separately and that, over time, they came to function together. The distinction between these two programs does not exist for arbuscular mycorrhizae development despite events occurring in both root tissues. Mutations that affect both symbioses are restricted to the epidermal program. We propose here sites of action and potential roles for ethylene during the formation of the two symbioses with a specific hypothesis for nodule organogenesis. Assuming the epidermis does not make ethylene, the microsymbionts probably first encounter a regulatory level of ethylene at the epidermis–outermost cortical cell layer interface. Depending on the hormone concentrations there, infection will either progress or be blocked. In the former case, ethylene affects the cortex cytoskeleton, allowing reorganization that facilitates infection; in the latter case, ethylene acts on several enzymes that interfere with infection thread growth, causing it to abort. Throughout this review, the difficulty of generalizing the roles of ethylene is emphasized and numerous examples are given to demonstrate the diversity that exists in plants

Association of circulating calprotectin with lipid profile in axial spondyloarthritis

Calprotectin (CPT) is released during inflammation, also in the context of atherosclerosis. The link between CPT and the atherosclerotic process was evaluated in several diseases. However, studies in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA), associated with a high incidence of subclinical atherosclerosis, are scarce. Therefore, we assessed the association of CPT with subclinical atherosclerosis and metabolic risk factors in axSpA. CPT serum levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 163 axSpA patients and 63 controls. Subclinical atherosclerosis was determined in patients by carotid ultrasonography (assessing the presence/absence of carotid plaques and carotid intima-media thickness [cIMT]). Data on inflammation, disease activity, lipid profile and treatment were collected to evaluate its relationship with CPT. axSpA patients evidenced lower CPT levels than controls. CPT showed no association with plaques or cIMT in axSpA. CPT and HDL-cholesterol negatively correlated, while a positive association of CPT with the atherogenic index was disclosed. Additionally, axSpA patients with C-reactive protein values at diagnosis higher than 3?mg/L displayed higher CPT levels. Our study shows no relationship between CPT and markers of subclinical atherosclerosis in axSpA. Nevertheless, it demonstrates an association of CPT with adverse lipid profiles and inflammatory biomarkers, which could further influence on the development of atherosclerosis.We wish to thank all the patients and controls that participated in this study and Begoña Ubilla for technical assistance. FG is a recipient of a Sara Borrell post-doctoral fellowship from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) (Spain), co-funded by the European Social Fund (ESF, “Investing in your future”) (grant CD15/00095). SR-M is supported by funds of the RETICS Program (RIER) RD16/0012/0009 (ISCIII, co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund, ERDF). VM is supported by funds of a Miguel Servet type I programme (grant CP16/00033) (ISCIII, co-funded by ERDF). RL-M is a recipient of a Miguel Servet type I programme fellowship from the ISCIII, co-funded by the ESF (grant CP16/00033). This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors

HLA-DRB1 association with Henoch-Schonlein purpura

Objective: Henoch-Schönlein purpura (HSP) is the most common vasculitis in children but it is not exceptional in adults. Increased familial occurrence supports a genetic predisposition for HSP. In this context, an association with the human leukocyte antigen-HLA-DRB1*01 phenotype has been suggested in Caucasian individuals with HSP. However, data on the potential association of HSP with HLA-DRB1*01 were based on small case series. To further investigate this issue, we performed HLA-DRB1 genotyping of the largest series of HSP patients ever assessed for genetic studies in Caucasians. Methods: 342 Spanish patients diagnosed with HSP fulfilling the American College of Rheumatology and the Michel et al classification criteria, and 303 sex and ethnically matched controls were assessed. HLA-DRB1 alleles were determined using a PCR-Sequence-Specific-Oligonucleotide Probe (PCR-SSOP) method. Results: A statistically significant increase of HLA-DRB1*01 in HSP patients when compared with controls was found (43% vs 7%, respectively; p<0.001; odds ratio-OR=2.03 [1.43-2.87]). It was due to the increased frequency of HLA-DRB1*0103 phenotype in HSP (14% vs 2%; p<0.001; OR=8.27 [3.46-23.9]). These results remained statistically significant after adjusting for Bonferroni correction. In contrast, a statistically significant decreased frequency of the HLA-DRB1*0301 phenotype was observed in patients compared to controls (5.6% vs 18.1%, respectively; p<0.001, OR=0.26 [0.14-0.47]), even after adjustment for Bonferroni correction. No HLA-DRB1 association with specific features of the disease was found. Conclusion: Our study confirms an association of HSP with HLA-DRB1*01 in Caucasians. Also, a protective effect against the development of HSP appears to exist in Caucasians carrying the HLA-DRB1*03 phenotype

HLA association with the susceptibility to anti-synthetase syndrome

Objective: To investigate the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) association with anti-synthetase syndrome (ASSD). Methods: We conducted the largest immunogenetic HLA-DRB1 and HLA-B study to date in a homogeneous cohort of 168 Caucasian patients with ASSD and 486 ethnically matched healthy controls by sequencing-based-typing. Results: A statistically significant increase of HLA-DRB1*03:01 and HLA-B*08:01 alleles in patients with ASSD compared to healthy controls was disclosed (26.2% versus 12.2%, P = 1.56E–09, odds ratio–OR [95% confidence interval–CI] = 2.54 [1.84–3.50] and 21.4% versus 5.5%, P = 18.95E–18, OR [95% CI] = 4.73 [3.18–7.05]; respectively). Additionally, HLA-DRB1*07:01 allele was significantly decreased in patients with ASSD compared to controls (9.2% versus 17.5%, P = 0.0003, OR [95% CI] = 0.48 [0.31–0.72]). Moreover, a statistically significant increase of HLA-DRB1*03:01 allele in anti-Jo-1 positive compared to anti-Jo-1 negative patients with ASSD was observed (31.8% versus 15.5%, P = 0.001, OR [95% CI] = 2.54 [1.39–4.81]). Similar findings were observed when HLA carrier frequencies were assessed. The HLA-DRB1*03:01 association with anti-Jo-1 was unrelated to smoking history. No HLA differences in patients with ASSD stratified according to the presence/absence of the most representative non-anti-Jo-1 anti-synthetase autoantibodies (anti-PL-12 and anti-PL-7), arthritis, myositis or interstitial lung disease were observed. Conclusions: Our results support the association of the HLA complex with the susceptibility to ASSD