Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival

This article uncovers a new mechanism linking oil wealth to autocratic regime survival: the investigation tests whether increases in oil wealth improve the survival of autocracies by lowering the chances of democratization, reducing the risk of transition to subsequent dictatorship, or both. Using a new measure of autocratic durability shows that, once models allow for unit effects, oil wealth promotes autocratic survival by lowering the risk of ouster by rival autocratic groups. Evidence also indicates that oil income increases military spending in dictatorships, which suggests that increasing oil wealth may deter coups that could have caused a regime collapse

What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years

ABSTRACT This essay synthesizes the results of the large number of studies of late-20th-century democratization published during the last 20 years. Strong evidence supports the claims that democracy is more likely in more developed countries and that regime transitions of all kinds are more likely during economic downturns. Very few of the other arguments advanced in the transitions literature, however, appear to be generally true. This study proposes a theoretical model, rooted in characteristics of different types of authoritarian regimes, to explain many of the differences in democratization experience across cases in different regions. Evidence drawn from a data set that includes 163 authoritarian regimes offers preliminary support for the model proposed

TB56: Effects of Differing Abundance Levels of Aphids and of Certain Virus Diseases upon Yield and Virus Disease Spread in Potatoes

In eight years during the period 1944 to 1954, a study was conducted on Aroostook Farm, Presque Isle, Maine, to develop ways of obtaining and maintaining varying levels of aphid abundance on potato plants. Methods for measuring aphid abundance and their effects on yield and virus transmission were devised. These techniques were then used to determine the effects of varying all-season levels of abundance of the aphids and of virus reservoirs of two potat o diseases upon yield of potatoes and the spread of leaf roll and spindle tuber in four varieties of potatoes. The results of that study are reported in this bulletin.https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/aes_techbulletin/1129/thumbnail.jp

Understanding Policy Change in Developing Countries: The Spheres of Influence Framework

National policy reform is a prerequisite for improved stewardship of the global environment and figures prominently among the goals of international environmental diplomacy and transnational advocacy campaigns. Yet research on global environmental politics has proceeded absent models of policy change in developing countries, where most of the planet\u27s people, land, and biological diversity are found. In this article I present a theoretical framework to explain the domestic responses of developing countries to global environmental concerns. Drawing on research in Costa Rica and Bolivia, I situate the impact of global environmentalism in the context of complex, decades-long domestic struggles to create effective institutions. When international outcomes depend on protracted reforms in nations that are sovereign yet poor, policy change is driven by actors who successfully pair international resources (technical, financial, and ideational) with the domestic political resources needed to see through major policy innovations

Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set

When the leader of an autocratic regime loses power, one of three things happens. The incumbent leadership group is replaced by democratically elected leaders. Someone from the incumbent leadership group replaces him, and the regime persists. Or the incumbent leadership group loses control to a different group that replaces it with a new autocracy. Much scholarship exists on the first kind of transition, but little on transitions from one autocracy to another, though they make up about half of all regime changes. We introduce a new data set that facilitates the investigation of all three kinds of transition. It provides transition information for the 280 autocratic regimes in existence from 1946 to 2010. The data identify how regimes exit power, how much violence occurs during transitions, and whether the regimes that precede and succeed them are autocratic. We explain the data set and show how it differs from currently available data. The new data identify autocratic regime breakdowns regardless of whether the country democratizes, which makes possible the investigation of why the ouster of dictators sometimes leads to democracy but often does not, and many other questions. We present a number of examples to highlight how the new data can be used to explore questions about why dictators start wars and why autocratic breakdown sometimes results in the establishment of a new autocratic regime rather than democratization. We discuss the implications of these findings for the Arab Spring

Airway glucose concentrations and effect on growth of respiratory pathogens in cystic fibrosis

AbstractBackgroundPulmonary decline accelerates in cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD) proportional to severity of glucose intolerance, but mechanisms are unclear. In people without CF, airway glucose (AG) concentrations are elevated when blood glucose (BG)≥8 mmol L−1 (airway threshold), and are associated with acquisition of respiratory infection.MethodsTo determine the relationship between BG and AG, 40 CF patients underwent paired BG and AG (nasal) measurements. Daily time with BG>airway threshold was compared in 10 CFRD, 10 CF patients with normal glucose tolerance (CF-NGT) and 10 healthy volunteers by continuous BG monitoring. The effect of glucose at airway concentrations on bacterial growth was determined in vitro by optical densitometry.ResultsAG was present more frequently (85%-vs.-19%, p<0.0001) and at higher concentrations (0.5–3 mmol L−1-vs.-0.5–1 mmol L−1, p<0.0001) when BG was ≥8 mmol L−1-vs.-<8 mmol L−1. Daily time with BG≥8 mmol L−1 was CFRD (49±25%), CF-NGT (6±5%), healthy volunteers (1±3%), p<0.0001. Staphylococcus aureus growth increased at ≥0.5 mmol L−1 (p=0.006) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa growth above 1–4 mmol L−1 glucose (p=0.039).ConclusionsBG≥8 mmol L−1 predicted elevated AG concentrations in CF, at least in nasal secretions. CFRD patients spent ∼ 50% day with BG>airway threshold, implying persistently elevated AG concentrations. Further studies are required to determine whether elevated airway glucose concentrations contribute to accelerated pulmonary decline in CFRD

Social media and protest mobilization: evidence from the Tunisian revolution

This article explores how social media acted as a catalyst for protest mobilization during the Tunisian revolution in late 2010 and early 2011. Using evidence from protests we argue that social media acted as an important resource for popular mobilization against the Ben Ali regime. Drawing on insights from “resource mobilization theory”, we show that social media (1) allowed a “digital elite” to break the national media blackout through brokering information for mainstream media; (2) provided a basis for intergroup collaboration for a large “cycle of protest”; (3) reported event magnitudes that raised the perception of success for potential free riders, and (4) provided additional “emotional mobilization” through depicting the worst atrocities associated with the regime’s response to the protests. These findings are based on background talks with Tunisian bloggers and digital activists and a revealed preference survey conducted among a sample of Tunisian internet users (February–May 2012)

The Vicious Circle of Post-Soviet Neopatrimonialism in Russia

Published online: 10 Aug 2015, journal issue (vol.32, N5) appeared in 2016Since the collapse of Communism, Russia and some other post-Soviet states have attempted to pursue socio-economic reforms while relying upon the political institutions of neopatrimonialism. This politico-economic order was established to serve the interests of ruling groups and establish the major features of states, political regimes, and market economies. It provided numerous negative incentives for governing the economy and the state due to the unconstrained rent seeking behavior of major actors. Policy reform programs discovered these institutions to be incompatible with the priorities of modernization, and efforts to resolve these contradictions through a number of partial and compromise solutions often worsened the situation vis-à-vis preservation of the status quo. The ruling groups lack incentives for institutional changes, which could undermine their political and economic dominance, and are caught in a vicious circle: reforms often result in minor returns or cause unintended and undesired consequences. What are the possible domestic and international incentives to reject the political institutions of neopatrimonialism in post-Soviet states and replace them with inclusive economic and political ones?Peer reviewe

The Limited Agency and Life-cycles of Personalised Dominant Parties in the post-Soviet space: the cases of United Russia and Nur Otan

Vladimir Putin's United Russia and Nursultan Nazabayev's Nur Otan represent a distinctive type of dominant party due to their personalist nature and dependence on their presidential patrons. Such personalism deprives these parties of the agency to perform key roles in authoritarian reproduction typically expected of dominant parties, such as resource distribution, policy-making and mobilizing mass support for the regime. Instead United Russia and Nur Otan have contributed to authoritarian consolidation by securing the president's legislative agenda, stabilizing elites to ensure their patron's hold on power, and assisting in perpetuating a discourse around the national leader. However, because these parties lack the agency to reproduce themselves, to entrench their position, and to play more than a supportive role in regime consolidation, the lifespan of such personalist dominant parties is likely to be significantly shorter than that of dominant parties

Explaining Institutional Change: Why Elected Politicians Implement Direct Democracy

In existing models of direct democratic institutions, the median voter benefits, but representative politicians are harmed since their policy choices can be overridden. This is a puzzle, since representative politicians were instrumental in creating these institutions. I build a model of direct democracy that explains why a representative might benefit from tying his or her own hands in this way. The key features are (1) that voters are uncertain about their representative's preferences; (2) that direct and representative elections are complementary ways for voters to control outcomes. The model shows that some politicians benefit from the introduction of direct democracy, since they are more likely to survive representative elections: direct democracy credibly prevents politicians from realising extreme outcomes. Historical evidence from the introduction of the initiative, referendum and recall in America broadly supports the theory, which also explains two empirical results that have puzzled scholars: legislators are trusted less, but reelected more, in US states with direct democracy. I conclude by discussing the potential for incomplete information and signaling models to improve our understanding of institutional change more generally