A SPATIAL MODEL OF REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN APPALACHIA

In this study, a spatial equilibrium model of employment growth is developed and empirically estimated by Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares (GS2SLS) estimator using cross-sectional data from Appalachian counties for 1990-2000. Besides the existence of spatial spillover effects, the results suggest that agglomerative effects that arise from the demand and the supply side contribute to employment growth in the study area during the study period. The policy implications of the findings are: (1) Regional cooperation of counties and communities is advisable and may in fact be necessary to design effective policies to encourage employment growth; and (2) Policy makers at the county level may need to design policies that can attract people with high endowments of human capital and higher income into their respective counties.APPALACHIA, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, SPATIAL MODEL

A Spatial Panel Simultaneous-Equations Model of Business Growth, Migration Behavior, Local Public Services and Household Income in Appalachia

In this paper we develop a spatial panel simultaneous-equations model of business growth, migration behavior, local public services and median household income in a partial lag-adjustment growth-equilibrium framework and utilizing a one-way error component model for the disturbances. This model is an extension of the jobs follow people or people follow jobs literature and it improved previous models in the growth-equilibrium tradition by: (1) explicitly modeling local government and regional income in the growth process; (2) explicitly modeling gross in-migration and gross out-migration separately in order to spell out the differential effects, which used to be glossed over under net population change in previous studies; (3) explicitly incorporating both spatially lagged dependent variables and spatially lagged error terms to account for spatial spillover effects in the data set; and (4) extending and generalizing the modeling and estimation of simultaneous systems of spatially interrelated cross sectional equations into a panel data setting. To estimate the model, we develop a five-step new estimation strategy by generalizing the Generalized Spatial Three-Stage Least Squares (GS3SLS) approach outlined in Kelejian and Prucha (2004) into a panel data setting. The empirical implementation of the model uses county-level data from the 418 Appalachian counties for 1980-2000. Generally, the results from these model estimations are consistent with the theoretical expectations and empirical findings in the equilibrium growth literature and provide support to the basic hypotheses of this study. First, the estimates show the existence of feedback simultaneities among the endogenous variables of the model. Second, the results also show the existence of conditional convergence with respect to the respective endogenous variable of each equation of the model and the speed of adjustment parameters are generally comparable to those in literature. Third, the results from the parameter estimation of the model indicate the existence of spatial autoregressive lag effects and spatial cross-regressive lag effects with respect to the endogenous variables of the model. One of the key conclusions is that sector specific policies should be integrated and harmonized in order to give the desirable outcome. Besides, regionally focusing resources for development policy may yield greater returns than treating all locations the same.Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Sustainable land management through market oriented commodity development: Case studies from Ethiopia

Land degradation has been identified as severe environmental problem in Ethiopia, especially since the early 1970s. Because there is significant degradation on cultivated lands in Ethiopia, there is potentially high payoff to addressing degradation in the country. In this paper we focus mainly on the effect of short-term benefits to farmers and the explicit considerations of the linkages between natural resource management and market-oriented commodity development on the adoption and scaling out of sustainable land management practices. We hypothesize that linking natural resource management with market-oriented commodity development enhances sustainable land management by providing farmers with short-term benefits. We test this hypothesis with analysis of case studies of four districts in Ethiopia. Two of the case studies deal with the linkage between grazing land development and market-oriented livestock development, and the other two deal with the linkage between conservation agriculture and market-oriented crop production. Results indicate that, indeed, direct linkages of natural resource management with market-oriented commodity development that have profitable market opportunities can enhance sustainable land management. Results imply that participatory approaches to the appraisal of community resources, identification and prioritization of key constraints of commodity development, and implementation of interventions greatly facilitate adoption and scaling out of interventions

Integrating Family Planning Training into Medical Education: A Case Study of St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College (SPHMMC), Addis Ababa

https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/148156/1/integrating-family-planning-into-medical-education-a-case.pdf-1Description of integrating-family-planning-into-medical-education-a-case.pdf : Case Study (PDF

A COMPARISON OF ANALYTIC AND BAYESIAN APPROACHES FOR CHARACTERIZING THERMAL HYSTERESIS IN CATTLE USING ALGEBRAIC AND GEOMETRIC DISTANCES

A high ambient temperature poses a serious threat to cattle. Above a certain threshold, an animal’s body temperature (Tb) appears to be driven by the hot cyclic air temperature (Ta) and hysteresis occurs. Elliptical hysteresis describes the output of a process in response to a simple harmonic input, and the trajectory forms a closed loop. The hysteresis loop shows a rotated elliptical pattern which depends on the lag between Tb and Ta. The objectives of this study are 1) to characterize hysteresis using bootstrapped ellipse specific nonlinear least squares 2) to reformulate models using the Bayesian method, and 3) to assess the contribution of the Bayesian approach by comparing the risks using two metrics: algebraic and geometric. Comparisons and illustrations are made using simulations over three levels of signal strength. For each method; bootstrap and Bayes, both algebraic and geometric distances are compared based on the root mean square distance (RMSE) from fitting the hysteresis loop. Data from a heat stressed steer in a field experiment was analyzed to illustrate and compare the results from each method

Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia

Published online: 26 July 2015Maize became increasingly important in the food security of Ethiopia following the major drought and famine that occurred in 1984. More than 9 million smallholder house- holds, more than for any other crop in the country, grow maize in Ethiopia at present. Ethiopia has doubled its maize produc- tivity and production in less than two decades. The yield, currently estimated at >3 metric tons/ha, is the second highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa; yield gains for Ethiopia grew at an annual rate of 68 kg/ha between 1990 and 2013, only second to South Africa and greater than Mexico, China, or India. The maize area covered by improved varieties in Ethiopia grew from 14 % in 2004 to 40 % in 2013, and the application rate of mineral fertilizers from 16 to 34 kg/ ha during the same period. Ethiopia ’ s extension worker to farmer ratio is 1:476, compared to 1:1000 for Kenya, 1:1603 for Malawi and 1:2500 for Tanzania. Increased use of im- proved maize varieties and mineral fertilizers, coupled with increased extension services and the absence of devastating droughts are the key factors promoting the accelerated growth in maize productivity in Ethiopia. Ethiopia took a homegrown solutions approach to the research and development of its maize and other commodities. The lesson from Ethiopia ’ s experience with maize is that sustained investment in agricul- tural research and development and policy support by the national government are crucial for continued growth of agricultur

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation