On the road to eliminate malaria in Sri Lanka: lessons from history, challenges, gaps in knowledge and research needs

Malaria is one of the most important tropical diseases that has caused devastation throughout the history of mankind. Malaria eradication programmes in the past have had many positive effects but failed to wipe out malaria from most tropical countries, including Sri Lanka. Encouraged by the impressive levels of reduction in malaria case numbers during the past decade, Sri Lanka has launched a programme to eliminate malaria by year 2014. This article reviews the historical milestones associated with the malaria eradication programme that failed subsequently and the events that led to the launch of the ongoing malaria elimination plans at national-level and its strategies that are operational across the entire country. The existing gaps in knowledge are also discussed together with the priority areas for research to fill in these gaps that are posing as challenges to the envisaged goal of wiping out malaria from this island nation

Malaria control in Bhutan: case study of a country embarking on elimination

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Bhutan has achieved a major reduction in malaria incidence amid multiple challenges. This case study seeks to characterize the Bhutan malaria control programme over the last 10 years.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A review of the malaria epidemiology, control strategies, and elimination strategies employed in Bhutan was carried out through a literature review of peer-reviewed and grey national and international literature with the addition of reviewing the surveillance and vector control records of the Bhutan Vector-Borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP). Data triangulation was used to identify trends in epidemiology and key strategies and interventions through analysis of the VDCP surveillance and programme records and the literature review. Enabling and challenging factors were identified through analysis of socio-economic and health indicators, corroborated through a review of national and international reports and peer-review articles.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Confirmed malaria cases in Bhutan declined by 98.7% from 1994 to 2010. The majority of indigenous cases were due to <it>Plasmodium vivax </it>(59.9%) and adult males are most at-risk of malaria. Imported cases, or those in foreign nationals, varied over the years, reaching 21.8% of all confirmed cases in 2006.</p> <p>Strategies implemented by the VDCP are likely to be related to the decline in cases over the last 10 years. Access to malaria diagnosis in treatment was expanded throughout the country and evidence-based case management, including the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for <it>P. falciparum</it>, increasing coverage of high risk areas with Indoor Residual Spraying, insecticide-treated bed nets, and long-lasting insecticidal nets are likely to have contributed to the decline alongside enabling factors such as economic development and increasing access to health services.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Bhutan has made significant strides towards elimination and has adopted a goal of national elimination. A major challenge in the future will be prevention and management of imported malaria infections from neighbouring Indian states. Bhutan plans to implement screening at border points to prevent importation of malaria and to targeted prevention and surveillance efforts towards at-risk Bhutanese and migrant workers in construction sites.</p

Malaria in Sri Lanka: one year post-tsunami

One year ago, the authors of this article reported in this journal on the malaria situation in Sri Lanka prior to the tsunami that hit on 26 December 2004, and estimated the likelihood of a post-tsunami malaria outbreak to be low. Malaria incidence has decreased in 2005 as compared to 2004 in most districts, including the ones that were hit hardest by the tsunami. The malaria incidence (aggregated for the whole country) in 2005 followed the downward trend that started in 2000. However, surveillance was somewhat affected by the tsunami in some coastal areas and the actual incidence in these areas may have been higher than recorded, although there were no indications of this and it is unlikely to have affected the overall trend significantly. The focus of national and international post tsunami malaria control efforts was supply of antimalarials, distribution of impregnated mosquito nets and increased monitoring in the affected area. Internationally donated antimalarials were either redundant or did not comply with national drug policy, however, few seem to have entered circulation outside government control. Despite distribution of mosquito nets, still a large population is relatively exposed to mosquito bites due to inadequate housing. There were no indications of increased malaria vector abundance. Overall it is concluded that the tsunami has not negatively influenced the malaria situation in Sri Lanka

Temporal correlation between malaria and rainfall in Sri Lanka

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rainfall data have potential use for malaria prediction. However, the relationship between rainfall and the number of malaria cases is indirect and complex.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The statistical relationships between monthly malaria case count data series and monthly mean rainfall series (extracted from interpolated station data) over the period 1972 – 2005 in districts in Sri Lanka was explored in four analyses: cross-correlation; cross-correlation with pre-whitening; inter-annual; and seasonal inter-annual regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For most districts, strong positive correlations were found for malaria time series lagging zero to three months behind rainfall, and negative correlations were found for malaria time series lagging four to nine months behind rainfall. However, analysis with pre-whitening showed that most of these correlations were spurious. Only for a few districts, weak positive (at lags zero and one) or weak negative (at lags two to six) correlations were found in pre-whitened series. Inter-annual analysis showed strong negative correlations between malaria and rainfall for a group of districts in the centre-west of the country. Seasonal inter-annual analysis showed that the effect of rainfall on malaria varied according to the season and geography.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Seasonally varying effects of rainfall on malaria case counts may explain weak overall cross-correlations found in pre-whitened series, and should be taken into account in malaria predictive models making use of rainfall as a covariate.</p

Models for short term malaria prediction in Sri Lanka

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria in Sri Lanka is unstable and fluctuates in intensity both spatially and temporally. Although the case counts are dwindling at present, given the past history of resurgence of outbreaks despite effective control measures, the control programmes have to stay prepared. The availability of long time series of monitored/diagnosed malaria cases allows for the study of forecasting models, with an aim to developing a forecasting system which could assist in the efficient allocation of resources for malaria control.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Exponentially weighted moving average models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with seasonal components, and seasonal multiplicative autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were compared on monthly time series of district malaria cases for their ability to predict the number of malaria cases one to four months ahead. The addition of covariates such as the number of malaria cases in neighbouring districts or rainfall were assessed for their ability to improve prediction of selected (seasonal) ARIMA models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The best model for forecasting and the forecasting error varied strongly among the districts. The addition of rainfall as a covariate improved prediction of selected (seasonal) ARIMA models modestly in some districts but worsened prediction in other districts. Improvement by adding rainfall was more frequent at larger forecasting horizons.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Heterogeneity of patterns of malaria in Sri Lanka requires regionally specific prediction models. Prediction error was large at a minimum of 22% (for one of the districts) for one month ahead predictions. The modest improvement made in short term prediction by adding rainfall as a covariate to these prediction models may not be sufficient to merit investing in a forecasting system for which rainfall data are routinely processed.</p

The importance of accuracy in diagnosis of positive malaria cases in a country progressing towards malaria elimination

Background: With Sri Lanka aiming towards malaria elimination by 2015, the National Anti Malaria Campaign has stressed on the importance of identification of the species of Plasmodium either by examination of stained blood smears for malaria parasites or by Rapid Diagnostic Tests for malaria antigens before the initiation of treatment. This study aims at confirmation of the accuracy of clinical and/or microscopical malaria diagnosis using serology. Materials and Methods: Study population comprised 51 individuals diagnosed with malaria either microscopically or clinically during the first half of 2011. ELISA for detection of the two significant blood antigens (AMA-1 and MSP1-19) was carried out in these individuals, 14-28 days after being diagnosed as being positive for malaria microscopically. Results: ELISA confirmed the microscopic diagnosis in all 47 of the patients including two mixed infections which flagged positive for both parasite antigens. However, four individuals diagnosed clinically as being positive for P. vivax by Health Care Providers were negative for malaria antibodies by ELISA. Conclusions: With 175 cases of malaria reported in 2011, a formidable challenge exists to diagnose malaria positive blood smears due to the large number of negative blood smears being seen daily. After routine cross checking of positive slides, it is heartening to note that there were no false positives detected through serological assays amongst patients who were diagnosed as malaria positive by microscopy. Presumptive treatment of febrile patients with anti-malarials can lead to waste of resources and adversely impact the condition of the patient if the fever is not due to malaria

Active case detection for malaria elimination: a survey among Asia Pacific countries

Abstract Background Moving from malaria control to elimination requires national malaria control programmes to implement strategies to detect both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the community. In order to do this, malaria elimination programmes follow up malaria cases reported by health facilities to carry out case investigations that will determine the origin of the infection, whether it has been imported or is due to local malaria transmission. If necessary, the malaria programme will also carry out active surveillance to find additional malaria cases in the locality to prevent further transmission. To understand current practices and share information on malaria elimination strategies, a survey specifically addressing country policies on case investigation and reactive case detection was carried out among fourteen countries of the Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network (APMEN). Methods A questionnaire was distributed to the malaria control programme managers amongst 14 countries in the Asia Pacific who have national or sub-national malaria elimination goals. Results Results indicate that there are a wide variety of case investigation and active case detection activities employed by the 13 countries that responded to the survey. All respondents report conducting case investigation as part of surveillance activities. More than half of these countries conduct investigations for each case. Over half aim to accomplish the investigation within one to two days of a case report. Programmes collect a broad array of demographic data during investigation procedures and definitions for imported cases are varied across respondents. Some countries report intra-national (from a different province or district) importation while others report only international importation (from a different country). Reactive case detection in respondent countries is defined as screening households within a pre-determined radius in order to identify other locally acquired infections, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic. Respondents report that reactive case detection can be triggered in different ways, in some cases with only a single case report and in others if a defined threshold of multiple cases occurs. The spatial range of screening conducted varies from a certain number of households to an entire administrative unit (e g, village). Some countries target symptomatic people whereas others target all people in order to detect asymptomatic infections. The majority of respondent programmes collect a range of information from those screened for malaria, similar to the range of information collected during case investigation. Conclusion Case investigation and reactive case detection are implemented in the malaria elimination programmes in the Asia Pacific, however practices vary widely from country to country. There is little evidence available to support countries in deciding which methods to maintain, change or adopt for improved effectiveness and efficiency. The development and use of common evaluation metrics for these activities will allow malaria programmes to assess performance and results of resource-intensive surveillance measures and may benefit other countries that are considering implementing these activities