An econometric investigation of the relationship between the price of oil and U.K. macroeconomic performance

The objective of this thesis is to conduct an econometric investigation of the relationship between the price of oil and U.K. macroeconomic performance. For this purpose, quarterly seasonally-adjusted time series have been collected which extend from 1972 to 2008. Empirical results are obtained from the estimation of unrestricted and restricted vector autoregressive models. The conclusions which are reached in this study are founded upon both within- and post-sample analyses of the data. A considerable amount of research has already been devoted to the subject of the relationship between the price of oil and macroeconomic performance. Within the empirical literature, much attention has been paid to whether the macroeconomic consequences of an increase in the price of oil are symmetrical to those of a decrease. However, a largely neglected issue has been whether or not the effects of an oil price shock are subject to variation over time. The fundamental contribution which is made by this thesis is to rectify this situation through applying suitable extensions to two existing vector autoregressive models. From the empirical analysis which is subsequently undertaken, it is apparent that spurious results can arise from failing to allow for both the change in the status of the U.K. to a significant exporter of crude oil and the reduction in the intensity with which this commodity is utilised in the production process. In particular, without the recommended augmentations, the importance of past movements in the price of oil to macroeconomic performance would be seriously understated.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

A reappraisal of Katona's adaptive theory of consumer behaviour using U.K. data

The objective of this paper is to conduct a reappraisal of Katona’s (1968) adaptive theory of consumer behaviour, which maintains that discretionary consumption is partly determined by attitudes and expectations of households. Initially, using UK data, we follow Katona by empirically examining whether changes in personal expenditure on durable goods are connected to earlier movements in consumer confidence. Evidence of a lack of a stable relationship between these two variables encourages us to perform a disaggregated analysis involving 111 components of four different forms of consumption, which enables construction of an aggregate measure of discretionary spending (DISC). We find that sufficient criteria are satisfied for the GfK sentiment index to be accepted as a reliable predictor of the growth of DISC. In conclusion, then, it would seem that the validity of Katona’s theory can be revived if we are prepared to discard the assumption that durable goods’ consumption is synonymous with discretionary expenditure

Discretionary household consumption expenditure in the UK: measurement and evaluation

The current cost-of-living crisis which is afflicting several countries has hastened the need to be able to distinguish between essential and inessential items of spending. Hence, the principal purpose of this paper is to develop a series on UK discretionary household consumption expenditure through making maximum use of publicly available data that are provided by the Office for National Statistics. The Family Spending workbooks offer information on the weekly consumption patterns of the ten income deciles, while the publication, Consumer Trends, contains quarterly time-series data on the expenditure by the entire household sector on different goods and services. From an analysis of both types of data, we identify 28 three-digit COICOP categories of consumption as being discretionary, constituting, on average, approximately 20% of total domestic household expenditure over the interval, 1985Q1 – 2019Q4. Our approach towards constructing a series on discretionary consumption receives vindication from subsequent empirical results, which show that this variable enjoys a more significant and stable relationship with a reputable measure of consumer confidence than each of the traditional aggregates to be found within Consumer Trends, i.e. spending on durable goods, semi-durable goods, non-durable goods, and services

Would information on consumer confidence have helped to predict UK household expenditure during the recent economic crisis?

The objective is to investigate whether access to data on consumer confidence would have aided forecasts of the growth of the UK household expenditure over the recent period of economic crisis. A disaggregated study is performed on the basis that consideration is given not only to household spending in total but also expenditure on each of durable goods, semi-durable goods, nondurable goods and services. The empirical analysis demonstrates how modifications which are made to the harmonized indicator of the European Commission are able to enhance predictive accuracy. However, the benefit which is derived from consulting consumer survey data does not extend to an earlier interval over which the behaviour of consumer sentiment was far less volatile

An assessment of the contribution of consumer confidence towards household spending decisions using UK data

The European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is assembled from responses to four questions about individual and general economic prospects which form part of the EU’s Consumer Survey. However, concerns may be raised about whether the four components should be constrained to exerting the same influence in a forecasting model of household consumption. Also, in this context, it would seem to be appropriate to permit a role to other information that is obtained from the EU survey. Consequently, in this article, different regression functions are specified in order to assess whether there is any gain to be achieved in predictive accuracy from adopting a more flexible approach towards using the data from the EU questionnaire. With an emphasis upon parsimony, an econometric analysis is performed in conjunction with UK quarterly data on household consumption expenditure. For two categories of spending, it is discovered that the quality of forecasts benefits from having undertaken disaggregation involving survey data beyond those which contribute towards the calculation of the CCI. Indeed, the respective consumption variables (relating to non-durable goods and durable goods excluding vehicles) are seen to be associated with relatively volatile behaviour over the forecast interval, 2008–2013

Comparative Performances of Measures of Consumer and Economic Sentiment in Forecasting Consumption: A Multi-Country Analysis

This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU’s headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval

An examination of higher-moment contagion during the South Sea Bubble

The objective of this paper is to investigate the nature and the direction of the contagion during the episode of the South Sea Bubble. Previous research in this area has adopted a correlation and cointegration approach. In preference, though, we place reliance upon four different tests of linear and higher-moment contagion. From using daily data on the share prices of six companies from December 1719 to January 1721, strong evidence is obtained of contagion when applying co-skewness, co-volatility, and co-kurtosis tests

Return to sport activity after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in skeletally immature athletes with manual drilling original all inside reconstruction at 8 years follow-up

Objective: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears are common injuries in adolescent athletes, especially in those who bear high stress on their knees due to shearing forces. The goal of the surgical procedures in skeletally immature patients is to restore joint stability avoiding the adverse effects on the growth process. The aim of this study was to verify the return of the skeletally immature professional athletes to sports in the long-term, following ACL reconstruction with the original all-inside technique and with manual drilling. Methods: This study included 24 athletes (14 boys, 10 girls; mean age: 13.15 years, range: 9e14 years) who had radiographic evidence of open physes, were less than 14 years of age at the time of surgery and those with a minimum follow-up of eight years. All patients completed a questionnaire, the IKDC subjective knee evaluation form, and Tegner Activity Scale. Biomechanical outcomes of the KT-1000 arthrometer, gait analysis, and stabilometric and isokinetic results were also evaluated. A plain radiograph of both lower limbs was taken to obtain a precise measurement of the limb length and mechanical axis angles. Results: The patients returned to sport activities in a mean time of 6.43 months. No rerupture or resurgery due to growth abnormalities was observed. The mean difference in length between the operated and contralateral legs was 0.4 (range: 0.2 to 0.7) cm. The mean side-to-side difference measured with the KT-1000 arthrometer was 5.2 (range: 3.5 to 7) mm in the preoperative and 0.8 (range: 0 to 2.5) mm in the postoperative measurements. Conclusion: In conclusion, the original all-inside technique with manual drilling with a half tunnel and short graft seems to be a very effective technique for the surgical management of ACL injuries in pediatric/ adolescent athletes. A good rate of return to sports at pre-injury levels or higher, high patient satisfaction and a decent motor and proprioceptive function is possible as shown by our analysis. Level of evidence: Level IV, Therapeutic study

Dynamic thoracohumeral kinematics are dependent upon the etiology of the shoulder injury

[EN] Obtaining kinematic patterns that depend on the shoulder injury may be important when planning rehabilitation. The main goal of this study is to explore whether the kinematic patterns of continuous and repetitive shoulder elevation motions are different according to the type of shoulder injury in question, specifically tendinopathy or rotator cuff tear, and to analyze the influence of the load handled during its assessment. For this purpose, 19 individuals with tendinopathy and 9 with rotator cuff tear performed a repetitive scaption movement that was assessed with stereophotogrammetry. Furthermore, static range of motion (ROM) and isometric strength were evaluated with a goniometer and a dynamometer, respectively. Dynamic measurements of maximum elevation (Emax), variablility of the maximum angle (VMA), maximum angular velocity (Velmax), and time to maximum velocity (tmaxvel) were found to be significantly different between the tendinopathy group (TG) and the rotator cuff tear group (RTCG). No differences were found in the ROM assessed with goniometry and the isometric strength. The effect of increasing the load placed in the hand during the scaption movement led to significant differences in Emax, VMA, tmaxvel and repeatability. Therefore, only the dynamic variables showed sufficient capability of detecting differences in functional performance associated with structural shoulder injury. The differences observed in the kinematic variables between patients with tendinopathy and rotator cuff tear seem to be related to alterations in thoracohumeral rhythm and neuromuscular control. Kinematic analysis may contribute to a better understanding of the functional impact of shoulder injuries, which would help in the assessment and treatment of shoulder pain.This work was funded by the Spanish Government, Secretaria de Estado de Investigacion, Desarrollo e Innovacion, and co-financed by EU FEDER funds (Grant DPI2013-44227-R). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Lopez Pascual, J.; Page Del Pozo, AF.; Serra Añó, P. (2017). Dynamic thoracohumeral kinematics are dependent upon the etiology of the shoulder injury. PLoS ONE. 12(8). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0183954S12

The relationship between the price of oil and macroeconomic performance: empirical evidence for the UK

This study adopts a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach towards investigating the relationship between the price of oil and UK macroeconomic performance over the period of floating exchange rates. Its distinctive feature is the allowance for a systematic variation in the macroeconomic effects of a change in the price of oil, in recognition of fundamental developments which have occurred with respect to the structure of the UK economy. Empirical analysis indicates that the accommodation of this characteristic within a VAR model increases both the prominence and the pervasiveness of the impact of an oil price shock.