Interactive modelling and prognosis of a COVID-19 hospitalized patient via multistate models

A shiny app is presented with two main goals: 1) to fit a MSM from specific data in a friendly way (programming skills are not required); 2) to predict the clinical evolution for a given patient based on the previous MSM. For illustrative purposes, we show how the app works using data from a multicohort study of more than 5,000 hospitalized adult COVID-19 patients from 8 Catalan hospitals during the first five waves of the pandemic. Different models have been fitted for the first Catalan pandemic wave, including as states the main outcomes (discharge and death) together with objective interventions during hospitalization such as non-invasive or invasive mechanical ventilation. The application and the underlying model are intended to be very useful for clinicians and to enhance the approach in modelling the course of other diseases with different stages of severity

MSMpred: interactive modelling and prediction of individual evolution via multistate models

Background: Modelling the course of a disease regarding severe events and identifying prognostic factors is of great clinical relevance. Multistate models (MSM) can be used to describe diseases or processes that change over time using different states and the transitions between them. Specifically, they are useful to analyse a disease with an increasing degree of severity, that may precede death. The complexity of these models changes depending on the number of states and transitions taken into account. Due to that, a web tool has been developed making it easier to work with those models. Results: MSMpred is a web tool created with the shiny R package that has two main features: 1) to allow fitting an MSM from specific data; 2) to predict the clinical evolution for a given subject. To fit the model, the data to be analysed must be uploaded in a prespecified format. Then, the user has to define the states and transitions as well as the covariates (e.g., age or gender) involved in each transition. From this information, the app returns histograms or barplots, as appropriate, to represent the distributions of the selected covariates and boxplots to show the patient’s length of stay (for uncensored data) in each state. To make predictions, the values of selected covariates from a new subject at baseline has to be provided. From these inputs, the app provides some indicators of the subject’s evolution, such as the probability of 30-day death or the most likely state at a fixed time. Furthermore, visual representations (e.g., the stacked transition probabilities plot) are given to make predictions more understandable. Conclusions: MSMpred is an intuitive and visual app that eases the work of biostatisticians and facilitates to the medical personnel the interpretation of MSMs.This research was funded by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Spain) [PID2019-104830RB-I00/ DOI (AEI): 10.13039/501100011033] and by Generalitat de Catalunya (2020PANDE00148).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Do we know how urban heritage is being endangered by climate change? A systematic and critical review

It is worldwide accepted that climate change is affecting cities and that the conservation of the cultural heritage contributes to sustainable development. However, despite the high level of interest and research in climate-change risks on socioeconomic, urban and natural systems, studies that assess climate change impacts on urban cultural heritage and contribute to a holistic understanding on the subject present noticeable gaps in knowledge. A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out to assess the state-of- the-art of cultural heritage risk assessment methodologies within urban systems in the context of climate change, specifically historic urban areas. For this purpose, a systematic search was applied using Web of Science and Scopus. The search identified and characterized existing methodologies on vulnerability and risk assessment for cultural heritage in a changing climate following the PRISMA protocol, and it synthesized knowledge gaps to be addressed in the near future. This study aims to bring risk assessment methodologies closer to urban planners for more efficient climate change adaptation policies. The research concluded that there is an unbalance between the amount of methodologies for the different climate change derived hazards and their impacts on historic urban areas. The amount of methodologies focused on flooding highlights that further research is needed for other relevant hazards, like heat and cold waves, that contribute to a holistic perspective.The authors wish to acknowledge funding from the European Com-mission through the SHELTER project (GA 821282) and from the Uni-versity of the Basque Country UPV/EHU (PPGA20/26), as well as the support of research groups IT1314-19 of the Basque Government, GIU19/029 of the University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU and SAREN of the Faculty of Engineering in Bilbao. 9. Annex I – Papers reviewed References Year Citations Author keywords Hazard (s) Risk aspects/Systems 1 [49] 2020 0 Damage Assessment; Climate-Change; Precipitation; Future; Model; Management; Framework; Hazard Floods Vulnerability/Physical 2 [60] 2020 1 Floods Vulnerability/Physical (continued on next page) Fig. 6.Articles published each year. L. Quesada-Ganuza et al

Vulnerability assessment of cultural heritage sites towards flooding events

Historic sites are threatened by diverse weather patterns, mainly due to global climate change, such as sea-level rise and increasing frequency of storms and other extreme precipitation events. As climate change is becoming an increasing urban problem, heritage located in this context is considered as a sensitive and vulnerable element of the city. Adaptation should be oriented to a sustainable transformation of the historic city, leading to more resilient and safe environments. Risk-based approaches should incorporate an assessment of sensitiveness and capacity to adapt to these hazards. Vulnerability is often assessed on a large scale (e.g. regional, local) and buildings are not considered as part of the urban environment, while conservation is often developed on the operational scale of a monument or site. Management of cultural heritage requires therefore for an urban approach, which considers all the elements and buildings as part of the urban environment. Research presented in this paper describes a methodological approach (MIVES - Integrated Value Model for Sustainability Assessment) for vulnerability assessment of historic sites, supported by multilevel indicators (urban, building, element), in order to provide an informed decision-making. The solution proposed in based on an organised and structures decision tree, which provides a comparable and unique vulnerability index on the building level.Authors would like to acknowledge the funding provided by the Basque Government through the ADVICE project and the research group IT781-13 at the UPV/EHU

Low-grade RC beams strengthened with TRM composite based on basalt, carbon and steel textiles: Experimental and analytical study

IDI-20101594 IDI-20101592 MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/ FEDER, UE [PID2021–124203OB-I00 and RTI2018–097079-B-C31] IT1619–22This study develops an easy-to-conduct numerical calculation method to assess the effect of Textile Reinforced Mortar when used as externally bonded flexural strengthening technique in low-grade reinforced concrete beams from ancient structures (aged between 60 and 100 years old). Using materials main mechanical characteristics and the beams dimensions as inputs, the model defines the behaviour of the strengthened elements. This paper includes the experimental characterization of the whole strengthening solution, from the constituent materials and the composite in pure tensile to scaled beams strengthened in flexure. In total three different materials – basalt, carbon and steel cords – are used as Textile Reinforced Mortar inner reinforcement. Tests are carried out on sixteen low-grade reinforced concrete beams that reproduce low-quality concretes with a compression strength below 17 MPa and, in general, poor mechanical properties, as those present in old and decayed structures. This experimental campaign includes the study of two other particular features of the adopted retrofitting technique: the strengthening ratio and the use of an anchorage system. The obtained experimental findings are assessed and satisfactorily compared with the developed numerical approach, leading us to conclude that Textile Reinforced Mortar is an effective solution for retrofitting structures made of low-grade reinforced concretes in terms of increasing their deformation and load-bearing capacity under flexural loads (the maximum bending moment has increased between 30% and 200%). Besides, the failure mechanism due to undesired premature detachment was effectively countered using U-shaped anchors, failing the strengthened beams due to the composite tensile failure.publishersversionpublishe

Improving the Resilience of Historic Areas Coping with Natural and Climate Change Hazards: Interventions Based on Multi-Criteria Methodology

Cultural and Natural Heritage (CNH), a legacy bequeathed to present and future generations, casts light on the humanity of past generations. However, the increase and the intensity of natural and climate-change-related hazards threaten the conservation of such heritage. The aim of this research is to develop a multi-criteria prioritization methodology in support of intervention decisions, to enhance the resilience of CNH conservation through sustainable development. The application of two methods, the Integrated Value Model for Sustainability Assessment and the Analytical Hierarchy Process, ensures both the contribution of a wide panel of experts of heritage conservation and equitable indicator assessment measured on different scales. The prioritization methodology has been developed considering the most common hazards and specific disaster-risk scenarios. The three dimensions of sustainable development and both technical and cultural dimensions are also considered in the methodology. All dimensions and their indicators are weighted to produce a Prioritization Index to support decision-making.The authors wish to acknowledge funding received from the European Commission through the SHELTER project (GA 821282) and, especially to the contribution of the University of Bologna, Tecnalia Research and Innovation, and EKOU. Additionally, the authors are thankful for the funding received from the SAREN Research Group (IT1619-22, Basque Government)

ADAPTATION TO FLOODING EVENTS THROUGH VULNERABILITY MAPPING IN HISTORIC URBAN AREAS

Historic urban areas are complex and inter-reliant systems, vulnerable to natural hazards. Over the recent years, the increase frequency in extreme precipitation events and sea-level rise, have impacted on a large number of historic areas, growing concern over disaster mitigation related to climate change. Most of the changes in the climatological indicators may have adverse impacts on historic areas, leading to physical, social and cultural consequences and should be included in urban planning practice. The importance of addressing cultural heritage in disaster risk has also been included in The Sendai Framework, considering the dimensions of vulnerability, adaptive capacity and exposure through systematic evaluation. Urban planning decisions involve an understanding of complex interactions between different aspects of the city, in its constructive, social, economic, environmental and cultural system. The analysis of these interactions requires a systemic approach as the components operate on different spatial and temporal scales and generate a large amount of data. This information can be used to determine the vulnerability of historic areas by assessing it at the building level, through the creation of typologies representing the building stock, often characterized by similarities and common constructive elements. The comprehension of the information can be supported and homogenized by a multi-scale urban model, to facilitate the understanding of interactions and the link among the different disciplines involved. This paper describes the methodology proposed for vulnerability mapping in historic urban areas, by using a categorization method supported by an information strategy and a multi-scale urban model.Authors would like to acknowledge the funding provided by the Basque Government through the ADVICE project and the research group IT781-13 at the UPV/EHU

Global study of the behaviour of textile reinforced mortar under tensile stress

The authors would like to thanks the Fundación Iñaki Goenaga for its scholarship programme and the financial support of the regional Diputación Foral de Bizkaia (Birgaitek, DFB-7/12/TK/2009/10).publishersversionpublishe

Urban Heat Islands and Thermal Comfort: A Case Study of Zorrotzaurre Island in Bilbao

This study assesses the impact of a heat wave on the thermal comfort of an unconstructed area: the North Zone of the Island of Zorrotzaurre (Bilbao, Spain). In this study, the impact of urban planning as proposed in the master plan on thermal comfort is modeled using the ENVI-met program. Likewise, the question of whether the urbanistic proposals are designed to create more resilient urban environments is analyzed in the face of increasingly frequent extreme weather events, especially heat waves. The study is centered on the analysis of temperature variables (air temperature and average radiant temperature) as well as wind speed and relative humidity. This was completed with the parameters of thermal comfort, the physiological equivalent temperature (PET) and the Universal Temperature Climate Index (UTCI) for the hours of the maximum and minimum daily temperatures. The results demonstrated the viability of analyzing thermal comfort through simulations with the ENVI-met program in order to analyze the behavior of urban spaces in various climate scenarios.This research was funded by research group IT1314-19 of the Basque Government

Lankidetza ekonomia diruzaintza kudeaketan aplikatzea posible al da?

[EUS] Lan honek lankidetza ekonomiari egingo dio ekarpena, baina orain arte gutxi garatutako ikuspegi batetik, finantza alorretik, eta hain zuzen ere, diruzaintzatik. Lan honetan hainbat enpresen diruzaintza modu elkartu batean kudeatzeko helburuz elkarrekin lan egitea posible dela defendatzen dugu, beti ere enpresak antentzeko helburu duen lankidetza ekonomia ikuspuntutik. Analizatutako hiru kasuak, honako hauek dira: Mondragon Corporation, Arboribus eta Trocobuy. Hiru kasu hauen analisiaren oinarrituz, finantza arloan lankidetza ekonomia posible izateko beharrezkoak diren ezaugarriak aurkezten ditugu: gardentsauna, kudeaketa, elkarren arteko mozkina lortzeko itxaropenak, bermeak, elkarren arteko onura eta konfiantza. Honela, lan honek erakusten du, alde batetik, lankidetza ekonomiaren ahalera orain arte ekonomia paradigma hori gutxi garatu den hainbat alorretan, hala nola, erakundeen diruzaintzan. Bestetik, lan honen bidez agerian geratzen da lankidetza ekonomiak kasu guztietan enpresaren desagregazioa ez dakarrela.[EN] The work contributes to the literature on collaborative economy; but from an underdeveloped perspective that is the field of finance, and specifically of the cash holding. This paper defends the possibility of collaborations to jointly manage the treasury between different companies, always under the prism of the collaborative economy based on the maintenance of the company as an organization. The three cases analyzed are: Mondragon Corporation, Arboribus and Trocobuy. It presents the necessary characteristics from these three cases so that the collaborative economy in the field of finance is possible: transparency, management, expectations of mutual benefit, guarantees, mutual benefit and trust. Thus, this work shows, on the one hand, the potential of the collaborative economy in areas where it currently has little presence; as is the cash holding of the organizations; and on the other hand, that the collaborative economy does not have to suppose in all the cases the disaggregation of the company