Fitness-dependent topological properties of the World Trade Web

Among the proposed network models, the hidden variable (or good get richer) one is particularly interesting, even if an explicit empirical test of its hypotheses has not yet been performed on a real network. Here we provide the first empirical test of this mechanism on the world trade web, the network defined by the trade relationships between world countries. We find that the power-law distributed gross domestic product can be successfully identified with the hidden variable (or fitness) determining the topology of the world trade web: all previously studied properties up to third-order correlation structure (degree distribution, degree correlations and hierarchy) are found to be in excellent agreement with the predictions of the model. The choice of the connection probability is such that all realizations of the network with the same degree sequence are equiprobable.Comment: 4 Pages, 4 Figures. Final version accepted for publication on Physical Review Letter

Patterns of link reciprocity in directed networks

We address the problem of link reciprocity, the non-random presence of two mutual links between pairs of vertices. We propose a new measure of reciprocity that allows the ordering of networks according to their actual degree of correlation between mutual links. We find that real networks are always either correlated or anticorrelated, and that networks of the same type (economic, social, cellular, financial, ecological, etc.) display similar values of the reciprocity. The observed patterns are not reproduced by current models. This leads us to introduce a more general framework where mutual links occur with a conditional connection probability. In some of the studied networks we discuss the form of the conditional connection probability and the size dependence of the reciprocity.Comment: Final version accepted for publication on Physical Review Letter

A microscopic study of the fitness-dependent topology of the world trade network

Previous studies have suggested that the world-trade network belongs to the class of static hidden variable models. In this article we investigate the microscopic structure of the world trade network, that is the hidden variable correlation matrix of the network. The hidden variable is defined as a rank ordering of gross domestic products. This choice significantly reduces the noise in the statistical analysis found in previous studies. The hidden variable correlation matrix, that expresses the probability that a trade relationship between two countries of given fitness exists, suggests an attachment kernel that at least partially favours trading pairs or dissimilar fitness rather than the purely multiplicative one found previously. Additionally, we provide an in-depth look at the data source and reveal that first-order results, such as the degree distribution, exhibit significant qualitative differences depending on the data provider. Furthermore, we shed light on the intertemporal activity of international trade and point out that fluctuations occur mostly between countries with strong dissimilarities of fitness and connectivity

Emergence of weight-topology correlations in complex scale-free networks

Different weighted scale-free networks show weights-topology correlations indicated by the non linear scaling of the node strength with node connectivity. In this paper we show that networks with and without weight-topology correlations can emerge from the same simple growth dynamics of the node connectivities and of the link weights. A weighted fitness network is introduced in which both nodes and links are assigned intrinsic fitness. This model can show a local dependence of the weight-topology correlations and can undergo a phase transition to a state in which the network is dominated by few links which acquire a finite fraction of the total weight of the network.Comment: (4 pages,3 figures

Null Models of Economic Networks: The Case of the World Trade Web

In all empirical-network studies, the observed properties of economic networks are informative only if compared with a well-defined null model that can quantitatively predict the behavior of such properties in constrained graphs. However, predictions of the available null-model methods can be derived analytically only under assumptions (e.g., sparseness of the network) that are unrealistic for most economic networks like the World Trade Web (WTW). In this paper we study the evolution of the WTW using a recently-proposed family of null network models. The method allows to analytically obtain the expected value of any network statistic across the ensemble of networks that preserve on average some local properties, and are otherwise fully random. We compare expected and observed properties of the WTW in the period 1950-2000, when either the expected number of trade partners or total country trade is kept fixed and equal to observed quantities. We show that, in the binary WTW, node-degree sequences are sufficient to explain higher-order network properties such as disassortativity and clustering-degree correlation, especially in the last part of the sample. Conversely, in the weighted WTW, the observed sequence of total country imports and exports are not sufficient to predict higher-order patterns of the WTW. We discuss some important implications of these findings for international-trade models.Comment: 39 pages, 46 figures, 2 table

A complementary view on the growth of directory trees

Trees are a special sub-class of networks with unique properties, such as the level distribution which has often been overlooked. We analyse a general tree growth model proposed by Klemm {\em et. al.} (2005) to explain the growth of user-generated directory structures in computers. The model has a single parameter $q$ which interpolates between preferential attachment and random growth. Our analysis results in three contributions: First, we propose a more efficient estimation method for $q$ based on the degree distribution, which is one specific representation of the model. Next, we introduce the concept of a level distribution and analytically solve the model for this representation. This allows for an alternative and independent measure of $q$. We argue that, to capture real growth processes, the $q$ estimations from the degree and the level distributions should coincide. Thus, we finally apply both representations to validate the model with synthetically generated tree structures, as well as with collected data of user directories. In the case of real directory structures, we show that $q$ measured from the level distribution are incompatible with $q$ measured from the degree distribution. In contrast to this, we find perfect agreement in the case of simulated data. Thus, we conclude that the model is an incomplete description of the growth of real directory structures as it fails to reproduce the level distribution. This insight can be generalised to point out the importance of the level distribution for modeling tree growth.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figure

The International-Trade Network: Gravity Equations and Topological Properties

This paper begins to explore the determinants of the topological properties of the international - trade network (ITN). We fit bilateral-trade flows using a standard gravity equation to build a "residual" ITN where trade-link weights are depurated from geographical distance, size, border effects, trade agreements, and so on. We then compare the topological properties of the original and residual ITNs. We find that the residual ITN displays, unlike the original one, marked signatures of a complex system, and is characterized by a very different topological architecture. Whereas the original ITN is geographically clustered and organized around a few large-sized hubs, the residual ITN displays many small-sized but trade-oriented countries that, independently of their geographical position, either play the role of local hubs or attract large and rich countries in relatively complex trade-interaction patterns

A Self-organized model for network evolution

Here we provide a detailed analysis, along with some extensions and additonal investigations, of a recently proposed self-organised model for the evolution of complex networks. Vertices of the network are characterised by a fitness variable evolving through an extremal dynamics process, as in the Bak-Sneppen model representing a prototype of Self-Organized Criticality. The network topology is in turn shaped by the fitness variable itself, as in the fitness network model. The system self-organizes to a nontrivial state, characterized by a power-law decay of dynamical and topological quantities above a critical threshold. The interplay between topology and dynamics in the system is the key ingredient leading to an unexpected behaviour of these quantities

The International Trade Network: weighted network analysis and modelling

Tools of the theory of critical phenomena, namely the scaling analysis and universality, are argued to be applicable to large complex web-like network structures. Using a detailed analysis of the real data of the International Trade Network we argue that the scaled link weight distribution has an approximate log-normal distribution which remains robust over a period of 53 years. Another universal feature is observed in the power-law growth of the trade strength with gross domestic product, the exponent being similar for all countries. Using the 'rich-club' coefficient measure of the weighted networks it has been shown that the size of the rich-club controlling half of the world's trade is actually shrinking. While the gravity law is known to describe well the social interactions in the static networks of population migration, international trade, etc, here for the first time we studied a non-conservative dynamical model based on the gravity law which excellently reproduced many empirical features of the ITN.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

An explanatory model for food-web structure and evolution

Food webs are networks describing who is eating whom in an ecological community. By now it is clear that many aspects of food-web structure are reproducible across diverse habitats, yet little is known about the driving force behind this structure. Evolutionary and population dynamical mechanisms have been considered. We propose a model for the evolutionary dynamics of food-web topology and show that it accurately reproduces observed food-web characteristic in the steady state. It is based on the observation that most consumers are larger than their resource species and the hypothesis that speciation and extinction rates decrease with increasing body mass. Results give strong support to the evolutionary hypothesis.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure