How far away is hydrogen? Its role in the medium and long-term decarbonisation of the European energy system

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Achieving −55% GHG emissions in 2030 in Wallonia, Belgium: Insights from the TIMES-Wal energy system model

peer reviewedThe Walloon Region has undertaken the ambitious engagement to reduce its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions up to −55% in 2030. In this context, a regional model of the energy system is a useful tool to give insights to policy makers. We address the lack of an existing integrated tool by developing a technology-rich, bottom-up model for the region. The goal of this paper is twofold: we present the model and its functioning and then we analyse a cost-optimal way to reach the −55% regional target. Firstly, we describe the methodology, discussing how we build the sectors of our model and how the optimisation works. Secondly, we run the model with a constraint on GHG emissions to assess the impact of the mitigation target. We show that the total system cost of such an ambitious mitigation scenario is only ∼0.5% higher than the cost of an unconstrained reference scenario and that emissions reduction must start as soon as possible to stay on the cost-effective trajectory. Concerning technologies, windmills, photovoltaic (PV) panels and building renovations are cost-optimal solutions even with high discount rates

The Role of Bioenergy in Ireland’s Low Carbon Future – is it Sustainable?

This paper assesses through scenario analysis the future role of bioenergy in a deep mitigation context. We focus in particular on the implications for sustainability – namely, competing demands for land-use, import dependency, availability of sustainable bioenergy and economics. The analysis here is limited to one Member State, Ireland, which is an interesting case study for a number of reasons, including significant import dependency and recent acceleration in renewable energy deployment. We used the Irish TIMES model, the energy systems model for Ireland developed with the TIMES model generator, for this scenario analysis. Long term, least cost mitigation scenarios point to bioenergy meeting more than half of Ireland’s energy needs by 2050. The results of this paper point to the impact of tightened sustainability criteria and limitation on bioenergy imports, namely the increased use of indigenous bioenergy feedstocks, increased electrification in the energy system, the introduction of hydrogen and higher marginal abatement costs

JRC-EU-TIMES 2017 Upgrade: Buildings and heating & cooling technologies

The present report describes two main upgrades that have been made to the JRC-EU-TIMES model during the year 2017: • An improvement of the description of residential and non-residential buildings • An update of data and a new representation for heating &cooling and heat distribution technologies The model updates have been validated through tests with the JRC-EU-TIMES model and with stylised models allowing isolating the observed effect of the changed model input. The updates performed greatly improve the ability of the JRC-EU-TIMES model to perform studies options for the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Insight from an Italian Delphi Consensus on EVAR feasibility outside the instruction for use: the SAFE EVAR Study

Background: The SAfety and FEasibility of standard EVAR outside the instruction for use (SAFE-EVAR) Study was designed to define the attitude of Italian vascular surgeons towards the use of standard endovascular repair (EVAR) for infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) outside the instruction for use (IFU) through a Delphi consensus endorsed by the Italian Society of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery (Società Italiana di Chirurgia Vascolare ed Endovascolare - SICVE). Methods: A questionnaire consisting of 26 statements was developed, validated by an 18-member Advisory Board, and then sent to 600 Italian vascular surgeons. The Delphi process was structured in three subsequent rounds which took place between April and June 2023. In the first two rounds, respondents could indicate one of the following five degrees of agreement: 1) strongly agree; 2) partially agree; 3) neither agree nor disagree; 4) partially disagree; 5) strongly disagree; while in the third round only three different choices were proposed: 1) agree; 2) neither agree nor disagree; 3) disagree. We considered the consensus reached when ≥70% of respondents agreed on one of the options. After the conclusion of each round, a report describing the percentage distribution of the answers was sent to all the participants. Results: Two-hundred-forty-four (40.6%) Italian Vascular Surgeons agreed to participate the first round of the Delphi Consensus; the second and the third rounds of the Delphi collected 230 responders (94.3% of the first-round responders). Four statements (15.4%) reached a consensus in the first rounds. Among the 22 remaining statements, one more consensus (3.8%) was achieved in the second round. Finally, seven more statements (26.9%) reached a consensus in the simplified last round. Globally, a consensus was reached for almost half of the proposed statements (46.1%). Conclusions: The relatively low consensus rate obtained in this Delphi seems to confirm the discrepancy between Guideline recommendations and daily clinical practice. The data collected could represent the source for a possible guidelines' revision and the proposal of specific Good Practice Points in all those aspects with only little evidence available

Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models - the MoCho-TIMES model

This study presents MoCho-TIMES, an original methodology for incorporating modal choice into energy-economy-environment-engineering (E4) system models. MoCho-TIMES addresses the scarce ability of E4 models to realistically depict behaviour in transport and allows for modal shift towards transit and non-motorized modes as a new dimension for decarbonising the transportation sector. The novel methodology determines endogenous modal shares by incorporating variables related to the level-of-service (LoS) of modes and consumersâ modal perception within the E4 modeling framework. Heterogeneity of transport users is introduced to differentiate modal perception and preferences across different consumer groups, while modal preferences are quantified via monetization of intangible costs. A support transport simulation model consistent with the geographical scope of the E4 model provides the data and mathematical expressions required to develop the approach. This study develops MoCho-TIMES in the standalone transportation sector of TIMES-DK, the integrated energy system model for Denmark. The model is tested for the Business as Usual scenario and for four alternative scenarios that imply diverse assumptions for the new attributes introduced. The results show that different assumptions for the new attributes affect modal shares and CO2 emissions. MoCho-TIMES inaugurates the possibility to perform innovative policy analyses involving new parameters to the E4 modeling framework. The results find that authority's commitment to sustainability is crucial for a paradigmatic change in the transportation sector