Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation

Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain knowledge is managers= expectations about trends, which we call “causal forces.” Time series are described in terms of 28 conditions, which are used to assign weights to extrapolations. Empirical results on multiple sets of time series show that RBF produces more accurate forecasts than those from traditional extrapolation methods or equal-weights combined extrapolations. RBF is most useful when it is based on good domain knowledge, the domain knowledge is important, the series is well behaved (such that patterns can be identified), there is a strong trend in the data, and the forecast horizon is long. Under ideal conditions, the error for RBF’s forecasts were one-third less than those for equal-weights combining. When these conditions are absent, RBF neither improves nor harms forecast accuracy. Some of RBF’s rules can be used with traditional extrapolation procedures. In a series of studies, rules based on causal forces improved the selection of forecasting methods, the structuring of time series, and the assessment of prediction intervals

Evaluating Forecasting Methods

Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Evaluation consists of four steps: testing assumptions, testing data and methods, replicating outputs, and assessing outputs. Most principles for testing forecasting methods are based on commonly accepted methodological procedures, such as to prespecify criteria or to obtain a large sample of forecast errors. However, forecasters often violate such principles, even in academic studies. Some principles might be surprising, such as do not use R-square, do not use Mean Square Error, and do not use the within-sample fit of the model to select the most accurate time-series model. A checklist of 32 principles is provided to help in systematically evaluating forecasting methods

The Use of Sideline Video Review to Facilitate Management Decisions Following Head Trauma in Super Rugby

Background Sideline video review has been increasingly used to evaluate risk of concussive injury during match play of a number of collision sports, with the view to reducing the incidence of match play concussion injuries. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of sideline video review for identifying and evaluating head impact events in Rugby Union. Methods All Australian teams’ 2015 Super Rugby season matches were studied. Meaningful head impact events (HIEs) were identified, comprising events identified and acted upon during matches and events identified through a post-season retrospective review. Video footage of each HIE was coded by two experienced independent sports medicine clinicians to evaluate management decisions made by match-day (MDD) and team doctors (TD). HIE incidences for matches with and without sideline video were compared, and the agreement between game-day video interpretation and the independent clinician opinion calculated. Results Seventy HIEs were identified in 83 matches (47 identified during matches and 23 identified post-season), equating to 42.5 HIEs per 1000 player match hours. When video review was available, an unnoticed HIE occurred once every 4.3 matches, compared to once every 2.3 matches when the sideline video review was unavailable. Of the 47 identified in-match HIEs evaluated by TD and MDD during the season, 18 resulted in an immediate and permanent removal, 28 resulted in temporary removal for an off-field assessment, and one resulted in the player continuing the game. Game-day head injury assessment process video decisions agreed with the independent clinician view in 72% of cases, κ = 0.49 (95% CI 0.38–0.59, weak agreement). Conclusions These findings suggest that access to sideline video review is an important supplementary component to identify potential concussions; however, there is a critical need for improved systems and processes to reduce the likelihood of missing an incident

Altruism can proliferate through group/kin selection despite high random gene flow

The ways in which natural selection can allow the proliferation of cooperative behavior have long been seen as a central problem in evolutionary biology. Most of the literature has focused on interactions between pairs of individuals and on linear public goods games. This emphasis led to the conclusion that even modest levels of migration would pose a serious problem to the spread of altruism in group structured populations. Here we challenge this conclusion, by analyzing evolution in a framework which allows for complex group interactions and random migration among groups. We conclude that contingent forms of strong altruism can spread when rare under realistic group sizes and levels of migration. Our analysis combines group-centric and gene-centric perspectives, allows for arbitrary strength of selection, and leads to extensions of Hamilton's rule for the spread of altruistic alleles, applicable under broad conditions.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures. Supplementary material with 50 pages and 26 figure

A global disorder of imprinting in the human female germ line

Imprinted genes are expressed differently depending on whether they are carried by a chromosome of maternal or paternal origin. Correct imprinting is established by germline-specific modifications; failure of this process underlies several inherited human syndromes. All these imprinting control defects are cis-acting, disrupting establishment or maintenance of allele-specific epigenetic modifications across one contiguous segment of the genome. In contrast, we report here an inherited global imprinting defect. This recessive maternal-effect mutation disrupts the specification of imprints at multiple, non-contiguous loci, with the result that genes normally carrying a maternal methylation imprint assume a paternal epigenetic pattern on the maternal allele. The resulting conception is phenotypically indistinguishable from an androgenetic complete hydatidiform mole, in which abnormal extra-embryonic tissue proliferates while development of the embryo is absent or nearly so. This disorder offers a genetic route to the identification of trans-acting oocyte factors that mediate maternal imprint establishment

Ectopic A-lattice seams destabilize microtubules

Natural microtubules typically include one A-lattice seam within an otherwise helically symmetric B-lattice tube. It is currently unclear how A-lattice seams influence microtubule dynamic instability. Here we find that including extra A-lattice seams in GMPCPP microtubules, structural analogues of the GTP caps of dynamic microtubules, destabilizes them, enhancing their median shrinkage rate by >20-fold. Dynamic microtubules nucleated by seeds containing extra A-lattice seams have growth rates similar to microtubules nucleated by B-lattice seeds, yet have increased catastrophe frequencies at both ends. Furthermore, binding B-lattice GDP microtubules to a rigor kinesin surface stabilizes them against shrinkage, whereas microtubules with extra A-lattice seams are stabilized only slightly. Our data suggest that introducing extra A-lattice seams into dynamic microtubules destabilizes them by destabilizing their GTP caps. On this basis, we propose that the single A-lattice seam of natural B-lattice MTs may act as a trigger point, and potentially a regulation point, for catastrophe

Time esophageal pH < 4 overestimates the prevalence of pathologic esophageal reflux in subjects with gastroesophageal reflux disease treated with proton pump inhibitors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A Stanford University study reported that in asymptomatic GERD patients who were being treated with a proton pump inhibitor (PPI), 50% had pathologic esophageal acid exposure.</p> <p>Aim</p> <p>We considered the possibility that the high prevalence of pathologic esophageal reflux might simply have resulted from calculating acidity as time pH < 4.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We calculated integrated acidity and time pH < 4 from the 49 recordings of 24-hour gastric and esophageal pH from the Stanford study as well as from another study of 57 GERD subjects, 26 of whom were treated for 8 days with 20 mg omeprazole or 20 mg rabeprazole in a 2-way crossover fashion.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of pathologic 24-hour esophageal reflux in both studies was significantly higher when measured as time pH < 4 than when measured as integrated acidity. This difference was entirely attributable to a difference between the two measures during the nocturnal period. Nocturnal gastric acid breakthrough was not a useful predictor of pathologic nocturnal esophageal reflux.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In GERD subjects treated with a PPI, measuring time esophageal pH < 4 will significantly overestimate the prevalence of pathologic esophageal acid exposure over 24 hours and during the nocturnal period.</p