The Apparent Madness of Crowds: Irrational collective behavior emerging from interactions among rational agents

Standard economic theory assumes that agents in markets behave rationally. However, the observation of extremely large fluctuations in the price of financial assets that are not correlated to changes in their fundamental value, as well as the extreme instance of financial bubbles and crashes, imply that markets (at least occasionally) do display irrational behavior. In this paper, we briefly outline our recent work demonstrating that a market with interacting agents having bounded rationality can display price fluctuations that are {\em quantitatively} similar to those seen in real markets.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, to appear in Proceedings of International Workshop on "Econophysics of Stock Markets and Minority Games" (Econophys-Kolkata II), Feb 14-17, 200

Overall survival in the OlympiA phase III trial of adjuvant olaparib in patients with germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1/2 and high-risk, early breast cancer

Adjuvant therapy; Breast cancer; OlaparibTerapia adyuvante; Cáncer de mama; OlaparibTeràpia adjuvant; Càncer de mama; OlaparibBackground The randomized, double-blind OlympiA trial compared 1 year of the oral poly(adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase inhibitor, olaparib, to matching placebo as adjuvant therapy for patients with pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 (gBRCA1/2pv) and high-risk, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, early breast cancer (EBC). The first pre-specified interim analysis (IA) previously demonstrated statistically significant improvement in invasive disease-free survival (IDFS) and distant disease-free survival (DDFS). The olaparib group had fewer deaths than the placebo group, but the difference did not reach statistical significance for overall survival (OS). We now report the pre-specified second IA of OS with updates of IDFS, DDFS, and safety. Patients and methods One thousand eight hundred and thirty-six patients were randomly assigned to olaparib or placebo following (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation therapy if indicated. Endocrine therapy was given concurrently with study medication for hormone receptor-positive cancers. Statistical significance for OS at this IA required P < 0.015. Results With a median follow-up of 3.5 years, the second IA of OS demonstrated significant improvement in the olaparib group relative to the placebo group [hazard ratio 0.68; 98.5% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.97; P = 0.009]. Four-year OS was 89.8% in the olaparib group and 86.4% in the placebo group (Δ 3.4%, 95% CI −0.1% to 6.8%). Four-year IDFS for the olaparib group versus placebo group was 82.7% versus 75.4% (Δ 7.3%, 95% CI 3.0% to 11.5%) and 4-year DDFS was 86.5% versus 79.1% (Δ 7.4%, 95% CI 3.6% to 11.3%), respectively. Subset analyses for OS, IDFS, and DDFS demonstrated benefit across major subgroups. No new safety signals were identified including no new cases of acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome. Conclusion With 3.5 years of median follow-up, OlympiA demonstrates statistically significant improvement in OS with adjuvant olaparib compared with placebo for gBRCA1/2pv-associated EBC and maintained improvements in the previously reported, statistically significant endpoints of IDFS and DDFS with no new safety signals.Funding for this work, which was conducted as a collaborative partnership among the Breast International Group, NRG Oncology, Frontier Science, AstraZeneca, and Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, U.S.A. (MSD), was provided by the National Institutes of Health (grant numbers: U10CA 180868, UG1CA 189867, and U10CA 180822) and by AstraZeneca as part of an alliance between AstraZeneca and MSD. Provision of olaparib and placebo was from AstraZeneca

Forest chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) remember the location of numerous fruit trees

It is assumed that spatial memory contributes crucially to animal cognition since animals’ habitats entail a large number of dispersed and unpredictable food sources. Spatial memory has been investigated under controlled conditions, with different species showing and different conditions leading to varying performance levels. However, the number of food sources investigated is very low compared to what exists under natural conditions, where food resources are so abundant that it is difficult to precisely identify what is available. By using a detailed botanical map containing over 12,499 trees known to be used by the Taï chimpanzees, we created virtual maps of all productive fruit trees to simulate potential strategies used by wild chimpanzees to reach resources without spatial memory. First, we simulated different assumptions concerning the chimpanzees’ preference for a particular tree species, and, second, we varied the detection field to control for the possible use of smell to detect fruiting trees. For all these assumptions, we compared simulated distance travelled, frequencies of trees visited, and revisit rates with what we actually observed in wild chimpanzees. Our results show that chimpanzees visit rare tree species more frequently, travel shorter distances to reach them, and revisit the same trees more often than if they had no spatial memory. In addition, we demonstrate that chimpanzees travel longer distances to reach resources where they will eat for longer periods of time, and revisit resources more frequently where they ate for a long period of time during their first visit. Therefore, this study shows that forest chimpanzees possess a precise spatial memory which allows them to remember the location of numerous resources and use this information to select the most attractive resources

The Effect of Atorvastatin on Breast Cancer Biomarkers in High-Risk Women

Statins have the potential to reduce breast cancer incidence and recurrence as shown in both epidemiologic and laboratory studies. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of a lipophilic statin, atorvastatin, on breast cancer biomarkers of risk [mammographic density (MD) and insulin growth factor 1 (IGF-1)] in high-risk premenopausal women

Preventing Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Chromobacterium violaceum infections by anti-adhesion-active components of edible seeds

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Pseudomonas aeruginosa </it>adhesion to animal/human cells for infection establishment involves adhesive proteins, including its galactose- and fucose-binding lectins PA-IL (LecA) and PA-IIL (LecB). The lectin binding to the target-cell receptors may be blocked by compatible glycans that compete with those of the receptors, functioning as anti-adhesion glycodecoys. The anti-adhesion treatment is of the utmost importance for abrogating devastating antibiotic-resistant <it>P. aeruginosa </it>infections in immunodeficient and cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. This strategy functions in nature in protecting embryos and neonates. We have shown that PA-IL, PA-IIL, and also CV-IIL (a PA-IIL homolog produced in the related pathogen <it>Chromobacterium violaceum</it>) are highly useful for revealing natural glycodecoys that surround embryos in diverse avian eggs and are supplied to neonates in milks and royal jelly. In the present study, these lectins were used as probes to search for seed embryo-protecting glycodecoys.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The lectin-blocking glycodecoy activities were shown by the hemagglutination-inhibition test. Lectin-binding glycoproteins were detected by Western blotting with peroxidase-labeled lectins.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The present work reports the finding - by using PA-IL, PA-IIL, and CV-IIL - of rich glycodecoy activities of low (< 10 KDa) and high MW (> 10 kDa) compounds (including glycoproteins) in extracts of cashew, cocoa, coffee, pumpkin, and tomato seeds, resembling those of avian egg whites, mammal milks, and royal jelly.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Edible seed extracts possess lectin-blocking glycodecoys that might protect their embryos from infections and also might be useful for hampering human and animal infections.</p

Impending extinction crisis of the world's primates: why primates matter

Non-human primates, our closest biological relatives, play important roles in the livelihoods, cultures and religions of many societies, and offer unique insights into human evolution, biology, behavior and the threat of emerging diseases. They are an essential component of tropical biodiversity, contributing to forest regeneration and ecosystem health. Current information shows the existence of 504 species in 79 genera distributed in the Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar, and Asia. Alarmingly, ~60% of primate species are now threatened with extinction and ~75% have declining populations. This situation is the result of escalating anthropogenic pressures on primates and their habitats – mainly global and local market demands leading to extensive habitat loss through the expansion of industrial agriculture, large-scale cattle ranching, logging, oil and gas drilling, mining, dam building, and the construction of new road networks in primate range regions. Other important drivers are increased bushmeat hunting and the illegal trade of primates as pets and primate body parts, along with emerging threats such as climate change and anthroponotic diseases. Often, these pressures act in synergy, exacerbating primate population declines. Given that primate range regions overlap extensively with a large, and rapidly growing, human population characterized by high levels of poverty, global attention is needed immediately to reverse the looming risk of primate extinctions and to attend to local human needs in sustainable ways. Raising global scientific and public awareness of the plight of the world’s primates and the costs of their loss to ecosystem health and human society is imperative

Gesture analysis for physics education researchers

Systematic observations of student gestures can not only fill in gaps in students' verbal expressions, but can also offer valuable information about student ideas, including their source, their novelty to the speaker, and their construction in real time. This paper provides a review of the research in gesture analysis that is most relevant to physics education researchers and illustrates gesture analysis for the purpose of better understanding student thinking about physics.Comment: 14 page