Solar wind‐driven variations of electron plasma sheet densities and temperatures beyond geostationary orbit during storm times

The empirical models of the plasma sheet electron temperature and density on the nightside at distances between 6 and 11 RE are constructed based on Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions During Substorms (THEMIS) particle measurements. The data set comprises ∼400 h of observations in the plasma sheet during geomagnetic storm periods. The equatorial distribution of the electron density reveals a strong earthward gradient and a moderate variation with magnetic local time symmetric with respect to the midnight meridian. The electron density dependence on the external driving is parameterized by the solar wind proton density averaged over 4 h and the southward component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF BS) averaged over 6 h. The interval of the IMF integration is much longer than a typical substorm growth phase, and it rather corresponds to the geomagnetic storm main phase duration. The solar wind proton density is the main controlling parameter, but the IMF BS becomes of almost the same importance in the near‐Earth region. The root‐mean‐square deviation between the observed and predicted plasma sheet density values is 0.23 cm−3, and the correlation coefficient is 0.82. The equatorial distribution of the electron temperature has a maximum in the postmidnight to morning MLT sector, and it is highly asymmetric with respect to the local midnight. The electron temperature model is parameterized by solar wind velocity (averaged over 4 h), IMF BS (averaged over 45 min), and IMF BN (northward component of IMF, averaged over 2 h). The solar wind velocity is a major controlling parameter, and IMF BS and BN are comparable in importance. In contrast to the density model, the electron temperature shows higher correlation with the IMF BS averaged over ∼45 min (substorm growth phase time scale). The effect of BN manifests mostly in the outer part of the modeled region (r > 8RE). The influence of the IMF BS is maximal in the midnight to postmidnight MLT sector. The correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted plasma sheet electron temperature values is 0.76, and the root‐mean‐square deviation is 2.6 keV. Both models reveal better performance in the dawn MLT sector.Key PointsEmpirical models of electron density and temperature at r = 6–11 Re on the nightside are constructedThe model performance has been essentially improved by using lagged and time‐averaged solar wind parameters as a model inputElectron temperature and density correllate best with IMF Bs averaged over substorm growth phase and storm main phase periods, respectivelyPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134493/1/jgra52881.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134493/2/jgra52881_am.pd

Can ring current stabilize magnetotail during steady magnetospheric convection?

The present study investigates the role of the ring current in stabilizing the magnetotail during steady magnetospheric convection (SMC) events. We develop a method for estimation of the symmetric ring current intensity from the single spacecraft magnetic field observations. The method is applied to a large number of SMC events identified using three different automatic procedures adopted from the literature. It is found that the symmetric ring current can be weak or strong depending on a particular event. We find a significant fraction of events that have a rather weak symmetric ring current in spite of the strong solar wind driving during the event. These findings imply that the symmetric ring current plays no role in the magnetotail stabilization.Key PointsAnalysis of AE‐based criteria for SMC selectionNew method for ring current intensity estimationRing current plays no role in magnetotail stabilizationPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134802/1/jgra52295_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134802/2/jgra52295.pd

On the prediction of the auroral westward electrojet index

An ARMAX based model, to forecast the evolution of the of AL index, is developed. The model has been trained and validated using neural networks with the half wave rectifier (VBs) as input. It is shown that the model posses a good, reliable forecasting ability, including periods of intense geomagnetic activity. Prediction efficiency of the model is discussed in the context of 1 min resolution output smoothed over 7 min

Nowcast model for low‐energy electrons in the inner magnetosphere

We present the nowcast model for low‐energy (<200 keV) electrons in the inner magnetosphere, which is the version of the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) for electrons. Low‐energy electron fluxes are very important to specify when hazardous satellite surface‐charging phenomena are considered. The presented model provides the low‐energy electron flux at all L shells and at all satellite orbits, when necessary. The model is driven by the real‐time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters with 1 h time shift for propagation to the Earth's magnetopause and by the real time Dst index. Real‐time geostationary GOES 13 or GOES 15 (whenever each is available) data on electron fluxes in three energies, such as 40 keV, 75 keV, and 150 keV, are used for comparison and validation of IMPTAM running online. On average, the model provides quite reasonable agreement with the data; the basic level of the observed fluxes is reproduced. The best agreement between the modeled and the observed fluxes are found for <100 keV electrons. At the same time, not all the peaks and dropouts in the observed electron fluxes are reproduced. For 150 keV electrons, the modeled fluxes are often smaller than the observed ones by an order of magnitude. The normalized root‐mean‐square deviation is found to range from 0.015 to 0.0324. Though these metrics are buoyed by large standard deviations, owing to the dynamic nature of the fluxes, they demonstrate that IMPTAM, on average, predicts the observed fluxes satisfactorily. The computed binary event tables for predicting high flux values within each 1 h window reveal reasonable hit rates being 0.660–0.318 for flux thresholds of 5 ·104–2 ·105 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 keV−1 for 40 keV electrons, 0.739–0.367 for flux thresholds of 3 ·104–1 ·105 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 keV−1 for 75 keV electrons, and 0.485–0.438 for flux thresholds of 3 ·103–3.5 ·103 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 keV−1 for 150 keV electrons but rather small Heidke Skill Scores (0.17 and below). This is the first attempt to model low‐energy electrons in real time at 10 min resolution. The output of this model can serve as an input of electron seed population for real‐time higher‐energy radiation belt modeling.Key PointsNowcast model for low‐energy electronsOnline near‐real‐time comparison to GOES MAGED dataFirst successful model for low‐energy electrons in real timePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110719/1/swe20196.pd

Storm-time ring current: model-dependent results

The main point of the paper is to investigate how much the modeled ring current depends on the representations of magnetic and electric fields and boundary conditions used in simulations. Two storm events, one moderate (SymH minimum of −120 nT) on 6–7 November 1997 and one intense (SymH minimum of −230 nT) on 21–22 October 1999, are modeled. A rather simple ring current model is employed, namely, the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration model (IMPTAM), in order to make the results most evident. Four different magnetic field and two electric field representations and four boundary conditions are used. We find that different combinations of the magnetic and electric field configurations and boundary conditions result in very different modeled ring current, and, therefore, the physical conclusions based on simulation results can differ significantly. A time-dependent boundary outside of 6.6 RE gives a possibility to take into account the particles in the transition region (between dipole and stretched field lines) forming partial ring current and near-Earth tail current in that region. Calculating the model SymH* by Biot-Savart's law instead of the widely used Dessler-Parker-Sckopke (DPS) relation gives larger and more realistic values, since the currents are calculated in the regions with nondipolar magnetic field. Therefore, the boundary location and the method of SymH* calculation are of key importance for ring current data-model comparisons to be correctly interpreted.Peer reviewe

Locations of boundaries of outer and inner radiation belts as observed by Cluster and Double Star

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95464/1/jgra21211.pd

Transport of the plasma sheet electrons to the geostationary distances

The transport and acceleration of low‐energy electrons (50–250 keV) from the plasma sheet to the geostationary orbit were investigated. Two moderate storm events, which occurred on 6–7 November 1997 and 12–14 June 2005, were modeled using the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration model (IMPTAM) with the boundary set at 10  R E in the plasma sheet. The output of the IMPTAM was compared to the observed electron fluxes in four energy ranges (50–225 keV) measured by the Synchronous Orbit Particle Analyzer instrument onboard the Los Alamos National Laboratory spacecraft. It was found that the large‐scale convection in combination with substorm‐associated impulsive fields is the drivers of the transport of plasma sheet electrons from 10  R E to geostationary orbit at 6.6  R E during storm times. The addition of radial diffusion had no significant influence on the modeled electron fluxes. At the same time, the modeled electron fluxes are one (two) order(s) smaller than the observed ones for 50–150 keV (150–225 keV) electrons, respectively, most likely due to inaccuracy of electron boundary conditions. The loss processes due to wave‐particle interactions were not considered. The choice of the large‐scale convection electric field model used in simulations did not have a significant influence on the modeled electron fluxes, since there is not much difference between the equipotential contours given by the Volland‐Stern and the Boyle et al . (1997) models at distances from 10 to 6.6  R E in the plasma sheet. Using the TS05 model for the background magnetic field instead of the T96 model resulted in larger deviations of the modeled electron fluxes from the observed ones due to specific features of the TS05 model. The increase in the modeled electron fluxes can be as large as two orders of magnitude when substorm‐associated electromagnetic fields were taken into account. The obtained model distribution of low‐energy electron fluxes can be used as an input to the radiation belt models. This seed population for radiation belts will affect the local acceleration up to relativistic energies. Key Points Transport of plasma sheet electrons due to convection and substorms Importance of boundary conditions in plasma sheet Importance of magnetic field model choicePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/97187/1/jgra50047.pd

The STONE curve: A ROC-derived model performance assessment tool

A new model validation and performance assessment tool is introduced, the sliding threshold of observation for numeric evaluation (STONE) curve. It is based on the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve technique, but instead of sorting all observations in a categorical classification, the STONE tool uses the continuous nature of the observations. Rather than defining events in the observations and then sliding the threshold only in the classifier (model) data set, the threshold is changed simultaneously for both the observational and model values, with the same threshold value for both data and model. This is only possible if the observations are continuous and the model output is in the same units and scale as the observations, that is, the model is trying to exactly reproduce the data. The STONE curve has several similarities with the ROC curve, plotting probability of detection against probability of false detection, ranging from the (1,1) corner for low thresholds to the (0,0) corner for high thresholds, and values above the zero-intercept unity-slope line indicating better than random predictive ability. The main difference is that the STONE curve can be nonmonotonic, doubling back in both the x and y directions. These ripples reveal asymmetries in the data-model value pairs. This new technique is applied to modeling output of a common geomagnetic activity index as well as energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's inner magnetosphere. It is not limited to space physics applications but can be used for any scientific or engineering field where numerical models are used to reproduce observations.Comment: 19 pages, including 4 figures. Currently in second-round review with "Earth and Space Science": https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/2333508

Evolution of the proton ring current energy distribution during 21–25 April 2001 storm

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95267/1/jgra18324.pd

Inner magnetosphere currents during the CIR/HSS storm on July 21–23, 2009

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94920/1/jgra21817.pd