Schumpeterian Foundations of Real Business Cycles

In this paper I propose a dynamic stochastic general quilibrium model that includes many of Schumpeter’s ideas about growth and business cycles. In this model, technology advances are due to the introduction of vertical innovations by entrepreneurs who are funded by banks. The model is solved and estimated by bayesian methods for the U.S. economy to compute the value of some of its structural parameters. Results show that the presented innovation mechanism is roughly equivalent in terms of volatilies, correlations and impulse responses to the technology shocks in real business cycle models. Notwithstanding, the model differs from traditional RBC models as it incorporates technology catch-up features that affect the convergence to the steady-state.

The Role of Fundamentals in the Price of Housing. Theory and Evidence

Despite the extensive research in the field of housing economics, the role of some ‘fundamental’ economic variables, such as income, interest rates or stock of houses per capita, on the real price of housing is still not fully understood. In this paper we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to micro-fundament the price of housing in a market without renting. In this framework we underline the dual role of housing both as a good that produces valuable services and as an investment asset that can be resold in a future date. To test the theoretical results obtained, we analyze the Spanish housing market from 1995 to 2006 as it seems to satisfy the theoretical assumptions in practice. We examine the extent to which real house prices at the regional level are driven by fundamentals by applying Panel Cointegration methods such as Common Correlated Effects, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and Vector Error Correction. Results are fully consistent with the theory and underline the importante of both long-run adjustment and persistence processes to explain the dynamic behaviour of prices.Panel Cointegration, housing prices, adjustment dynamics, macroeconomic model

Schumpeterian Foundations of Real Business Cycles

In this paper I propose a dynamic stochastic general quilibrium model that includes many of Schumpeter’s ideas about growth and business cycles. In this model, technology advances are due to the introduction of vertical innovations by entrepreneurs who are funded by banks. The model is solved and estimated by bayesian methods for the U.S. economy to compute the value of some of its structural parameters. Results show that the presented innovation mechanism is roughly equivalent in terms of volatilies, correlations and impulse responses to the technology shocks in real business cycle models. Notwithstanding, the model differs from traditional RBC models as it incorporates technology catch-up features that affect the convergence to the steady-state

Wild dogs at stake: deforestation threatens the only Amazon endemic canid, the short-eared dog (Atelocynus microtis)

The persistent high deforestation rate and fragmentation of the Amazon forests are the main threats to their biodiversity. To anticipate and mitigate these threats, it is important to understand and predict how species respond to the rapidly changing landscape. The short-eared dog Atelocynus microtis is the only Amazon-endemic canid and one of the most understudied wild dogs worldwide. We investigated short-eared dog habitat associations on two spatial scales. First, we used the largest record database ever compiled for short-eared dogs in combination with species distribution models to map species habitat suitability, estimate its distribution range and predict shifts in species distribution in response to predicted deforestation across the entire Amazon (regional scale). Second, we used systematic camera trap surveys and occupancy models to investigate how forest cover and forest fragmentation affect the space use of this species in the Southern Brazilian Amazon (local scale). Species distribution models suggested that the short-eared dog potentially occurs over an extensive and continuous area, through most of the Amazon region south of the Amazon River. However, approximately 30% of the short-eared dog's current distribution is expected to be lost or suffer sharp declines in habitat suitability by 2027 (within three generations) due to forest loss. This proportion might reach 40% of the species distribution in unprotected areas and exceed 60% in some interfluves (i.e. portions of land separated by large rivers) of the Amazon basin. Our local-scale analysis indicated that the presence of forest positively affected short-eared dog space use, while the density of forest edges had a negative effect. Beyond shedding light on the ecology of the short-eared dog and refining its distribution range, our results stress that forest loss poses a serious threat to the conservation of the species in a short time frame. Hence, we propose a re-assessment of the short-eared dog's current IUCN Red List status (Near Threatened) based on findings presented here. Our study exemplifies how data can be integrated across sources and modelling procedures to improve our knowledge of relatively understudied species

Banking with Uninsured Liabilities: Spain in the 1860s

This paper studies the macroeconomic e§ects of banks operating with (and without) deposit insurance. We Örst document a natural experiment regarding the e§ect of a Önancial crisis on a banking system where no public intervention (liquidity provision, deposit insurance or bail-outs) takes place. This is the case of Spain in the 1864-1866, in which a Önancial crisis had the e§ect of liquidating almost half of the banking system. This, in turn, induced a large credit contraction and a severe recession. Next, we analyze which would have been the effect of the crisis provided that a centralised deposit insurance scheme had been in place. To this end we calibrate a general equilibrium model with banks that broadly reproduces the structure of the Spanish economy at the time and evaluate the counterfactual of introducing deposit insurance. Regulation increases the steady-state level of output, consumption, capital and employment while it reduces the volatility of these variables in the dynamic equilibrium. We also Önd that an economy with deposit insurance enjoys substantial welfare gains with respect to one that displays an uninsured banking sector

After Bretton Woods II

This paper presents a brief history of pension reform in Chile, and the reasons behind the introduction of individual privately-managed accounts in 1981, as well as the adjustments to the system introduced in 2006-07. The main conclusions are that the system is sound, but the reinforcement of the social protection to low income-low contribution workers was a necessary step, given the problems of the formal labour market. This adjustment is also feasible since the budgetary expenses linked to the transition of the 1981 reform are entering the decreasing phase, opening room for these adjustments. We emphasize the importance of economic growth for the good performance of the pension system, reversing one of the traditional arguments for pension reform. Finally we explore elements that must be taken into account when designing this type of pension reform.Dollar standard, optimal currency areas, exchange rates

Experimental bond performance of fibre reinforced polymer prestressed concrete elements

In pretensioned prestressed concrete elements, bond between reinforcement and concrete differs is fundamental for a safe design. The so-called Hoyer effect, produced by the lateral expansion of a material when subjected to load, increases the bond resistance, but it also increases the circumferential stresses and then, the risk of cracking due to the tendon expansion. The bond behaviour of FRP tendons has not been studied in depth. To study the bond performance of FRP tendons, and characterize the transfer and flexural development length, an experimental program was carried out. This program was based on a setup called ECADA developed for steel tendons by the Universidad Politécnica de Valencia. The test specimen represents the anchorage area of the tendon and the remaining part of the theoretical beam is substituted by an anchorage measurement access system that has the same rigidity of the replaced part. The test starts by prestressing from one side and after concreting, the prestressed force is released gradually, then the transfer length is measured. Afterwards, the tendon is pulled from the other side, and the total development length is determined iteratively by producing samples of different lengths. The results of the ECADA tests have indicated that the transfer lengths of the FRP tendons being studied lie within 100 and 300 mm.The authors acknowledge the support provided by Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCIN/AEI) and by the European Funds for Regional Development in the following projects RTI2018-097314-B-C21, and PID2021-123701OB-C21. The authors would like to acknowledge Sireg for their courtesy supplying the different FRP embedded reinforcement used in the experimental programs.Postprint (published version