Simplifying a hydrological ensemble prediction system with a backward greedy selection of members – Part 2: Generalization in time and space

An uncertainty cascade model applied to stream flow forecasting seeks to evaluate the different sources of uncertainty of the complex rainfall-runoff process. The current trend focuses on the combination of Meteorological Ensemble Prediction Systems (MEPS) and hydrological model(s). However, the number of members of such a HEPS may rapidly increase to a level that may not be operationally sustainable. This paper evaluates the generalization ability of a simplification scheme of a 800-member HEPS formed by the combination of 16 lumped rainfall-runoff models with the 50 perturbed members from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS. Tests are made at two levels. At the local level, the transferability of the 9th day hydrological member selection for the other 8 forecast horizons exhibits an 82% success rate. The other evaluation is made at the regional or cluster level, the transferability from one catchment to another from within a cluster of watersheds also leads to a good performance (85% success rate), especially for forecast time horizons above 3 days and when the basins that formed the cluster presented themselves a good performance on an individual basis. Diversity, defined as hydrological model complementarity addressing different aspects of a forecast, was identified as the critical factor for proper selection applications

Changes in Metallothionein Levels in Freshwater Mussels Exposed to Urban Wastewaters: Effects from Exposure to Heavy Metals?

Municipal effluents are complex mixtures of compounds such as heavy metals, aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons, and micro-organisms and are released in aquatic ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to verify whether changes in metallothioneins (MT) were associated with the accumulation of labile metals in tissue of freshwater mussels exposed to the dispersion plume of a major municipal effluent. Mussels were placed in experimental cages deployed at sites 1.5 km upstream, 8 km downstream and 12 km downstream of the outfall of a major, primary-treated municipal effluent in the St. Lawrence River (Québec, Canada). Mussels were analysed for MT and labile zinc levels in their gonads, gills and digestive glands. Lipogenic enzyme (isocitrate and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase) and arachidonic acid cyclooxygenase (COX) activities were also measured in gonad and gill tissues. Although MT was induced in all the tissues examined, the results showed that labile zinc levels were significantly reduced in gill and gonad tissues, with an increase observed only at the 12 km downstream site in the digestive gland. COX activity was readily induced in gills and gonads. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase activity was reduced at both downstream sites, but isocitrate dehydrogenase activity was significantly induced at the farthest (12 km) site. Analysis of covariance revealed that MT levels in gills were more influenced by COX activity than with distance in the dispersion plume and was negatively correlated with labile zinc levels. In conclusion, MT induction was inversely related to the levels of labile zinc but positively so with the inflammation biomarker COX. Hence, the induction of MT in mussels exposed to the municipal effluent of a large city appears to be associated with either inflammatory processes or as compensation for the loss of labile essential metals. We propose that the simple and complimentary parameters of labile zinc and COX evaluations be used to link MT induction with divalent heavy metal exposure in environmental studies dealing with various type of contaminants in such complex contaminant mixture effluents

Radiative Corrections in a Vector-Tensor Model

In a recently proposed model in which a vector non-Abelian gauge field interacts with an antisymmetric tensor field, it has been shown that the tensor field possesses no physical degrees of freedom. This formal demonstration is tested by computing the one-loop contributions of the tensor field to the self-energy of the vector field. It is shown that despite the large number of Feynman diagrams in which the tensor field contributes, the sum of these diagrams vanishes, confirming that it is not physical. Furthermore, if the tensor field were to couple with a spinor field, it is shown at one-loop order that the spinor self-energy is not renormalizable, and hence this coupling must be excluded. In principle though, this tensor field does couple to the gravitational field

Diagnosing students' difficulties in learning mathematics

This study considers the results of a diagnostic test of student difficulty and contrasts the difference in performance between the lower attaining quartile and the higher quartile. It illustrates a difference in qualitative thinking between those who succeed and those who fail in mathematics, illustrating a theory that those who fail are performing a more difficult type of mathematics (coordinating procedures) than those who succeed (manipulating concepts). Students who have to coordinate or reverse processes in time will encounter far greater difficulty than those who can manipulate symbols in a flexible way. The consequences of such a dichotomy and implications for remediation are then considered

Relative Reactivity of the Metal-Amido versus Metal-Imido Bond in Linked Cp-Amido and Half-Sandwich Complexes of Vanadium

Treatment of (η5-C5H4C2H4NR)V(N-t-Bu)Me (R = Me, i-Pr) and CpV(N-p-Tol)(N-i-Pr2)Me (Cp = η5-C5H5) with B(C6F5)3 or [Ph3C][B(C6F5)4] results in formation of the corresponding cations, [(η5-C5H4C2H4NR)V(N-t-Bu)]+ and [CpV(N-p-Tol)(N-i-Pr2)]+. The latter could also be generated as its N,N-dimethylaniline adduct by treatment of the methyl complex with [PhNMe2H][BAr4] (Ar = Ph, C6F5). Instead, the analogous reaction with the linked Cp-amido precursor results in protonation of the imido-nitrogen atom. Sequential cyclometalation of the amide substituents gave cationic imine complexes [(η5-C5H4C2H4NCR'2)V(NH-t-Bu)]+ (R' = H, Me) and methane. Reaction of cationic [(η5-C5H4C2H4NR)V(N-t-Bu)]+ with olefins affords the corresponding olefin adducts, whereas treatment with 1 or 2 equiv of 2-butyne results in insertion of the alkyne into the vanadium-nitrogen single bond, affording the mono- and bis-insertion products [(η5-C5H4C2H4N(i-Pr)C2Me2)V(N-t-Bu)]+ and [(η5-C5H4C2H4N(i-Pr)C4Me4)V(N-t-Bu)]+. The same reaction with the half-sandwich compound [CpV(N-p-Tol)(N-i-Pr2)]+ results in a paramagnetic compound that, upon alcoholysis, affords sec-butylidene-p-tolylamine, suggesting an initial [2+2] cycloaddition reaction. The difference in reactivity between the V-N bond versus the V=N bond was further studied using computational methods. Results were compared to the isoelectronic titanium system CpTi(NH)(NH2). These studies indicate that the kinetic product in each system is derived from a [2+2] cycloaddition reaction. For titanium, this was found as the thermodynamic product as well, whereas the insertion reaction was found to be thermodynamically more favorable in the case of vanadium.

The Search for Low-mass Companions of B Stars in the Carina Nebula Cluster Trumpler 16

We have developed lists of likely B3--A0 stars (called "late B" stars) in the young cluster Trumpler 16. The following criteria were used: location within 3' of Eta Car, an appropriate V and B-V combination, and proper motion (where available). Color and magnitude cuts have been made assuming an E(B-V) =0.55 mag +/- 0.1, which is a good approximation close to the center of Trumpler 16. These lists have been cross-correlated with X-ray sources found in the Chandra Carina Complex Project (CCCP). Previous studies have shown that only very rarely (if at all) do late main sequence B stars produce X-rays. We present evidence that the X-ray detected sources are binaries with low-mass companions, since stars less massive than 1.4 Msun are strong X-ray sources at the age of the cluster. Both the median X-ray energies and X-ray luminosities of these sources are in good agreement with values for typical low-mass coronal X-ray sources. We find that 39% of the late B stars based on a list with proper motions have low-mass companions. Similarly, 32% of a sample without proper motions have low-mass companions. We discuss the X-ray detection completeness. These results on low-mass companions of intermediate mass stars are complementary to spectroscopic and interferometric results, and probe new parameter space of low mass companions at all separations. They do not support a steeply rising distribution of mass ratios to low masses for intermediate-mass (5 Msun) primaries, such as would be found by random pairing from the Initial Mass Function.Comment: Accepted for the ApJS Special Issue on the Chandra Carina Complex Project (CCCP), scheduled for publication in May 2011. All 16 CCCP Special Issue papers are available at http://cochise.astro.psu.edu/Carina_public/special_issue.html through 2011 at leas

Global X-ray properties of the O and B stars in Carina

The key empirical property of the X-ray emission from O stars is a strong correlation between the bolometric and X-ray luminosities. In the framework of the Chandra Carina Complex Project, 129 O and B stars have been detected as X-ray sources; 78 of those, all with spectral type earlier than B3, have enough counts for at least a rough X-ray spectral characterization. This leads to an estimate of the Lx/Lbol ratio for an exceptional number of 60 O stars belonging to the same region and triples the number of Carina massive stars studied spectroscopically in X-rays. The derived log(Lx/Lbol) is -7.26 for single objects, with a dispersion of only 0.21dex. Using the properties of hot massive stars listed in the literature, we compare the X-ray luminosities of different types of objects. In the case of O stars, the Lx/Lbol ratios are similar for bright and faint objects, as well as for stars of different luminosity classes or spectral types. Binaries appear only slightly harder and slightly more luminous in X-rays than single objects; the differences are not formally significant (at the 1% level), except for the Lx/Lbol ratio in the medium (1.0--2.5keV) energy band. Weak-wind objects have similar X-ray luminosities but they display slightly softer spectra compared to "normal" O stars with the same bolometric luminosity. Discarding three overluminous objects, we find a very shallow trend of harder emission in brighter objects. The properties of the few B stars bright enough to yield some spectral information appear to be different overall (constant X-ray luminosities, harder spectra), hinting that another mechanism for producing X-rays, besides wind shocks, might be at work. However, it must be stressed that the earliest and X-ray brightest amongst these few detected objects are similar to the latest O stars, suggesting a possibly smooth transition between the two processes.Comment: 30 pages, 9 figures. Accepted for the ApJS Special Issue on the Chandra Carina Complex Project (CCCP), scheduled for publication in May 2011. All 16 CCCP Special Issue papers are available at http://cochise.astro.psu.edu/Carina_public/special_issue.html through 2011 at leas