Rossby Wave Propagation Tracks in Southern Hemisphere Mean Basic Flows Associated to Generalized Frosts over Southern South America

A partir de los estudios observacionales previos acerca de los eventos extremos fríos en el sudeste de América del Sur, surge la hipótesis la cual plantea que los patrones de gran escala condicionan la frecuencia de ocurrencia de heladas, a través de la propagación de ondas de Rossby excitadas remotamente. Aplicando los conceptos de la teoría lineal de propagación de ondas de Rossby, el objetivo en este artículo es analizar la propagación de tales ondas en dos estados básicos diferentes referidos a los inviernos con una máxima y mínima frecuencia de ocurrencia de heladas generalizadas en la Pampa Húmeda (centro–noreste de Argentina). Basado en los conceptos teóricos acerca de la dispersión de onda y el trazo de trayectorias, se identifican los caminos preferenciales de las ondas de Rossby que alcanzan América del Sur a través de la técnica conocida como trazado de rayos. El análisis del flujo básico desde una perspectiva teórica, basado en los cálculos de las trayectorias, permite comprobar que las ondas de Rossby excitadas en forma remota son el mecanismo que favorece la máxima ocurrencia de heladas generalizadas. Siendo los lugares de excitación de tales ondas condicionados por el estado básico en que se propagan. Ellas son excitadas en lugares determinados de la atmósfera, desplazándose hasta América del Sur a lo largo de los jets que actúan como guías de dichas ondas, propiciando la generación de heladas generalizadas. En suma, este artículo presenta una revisión de la técnica de trazado de rayos y como puede ser usada para investigar la ocurrencia de importantes eventos sinópticos tales como las heladas en una región específica y su relación con la propagación de ondas planetarias de gran escala.Based on previous observational studies on cold extreme events over southern South America, some recent studies suggest a possible relationship between Rossby wave propagation remotely triggered and the occurrence of frost. Using the concept of linear theory of Rossby wave propagation, this paper analyzes the propagation of such waves in two different basic states that correspond to austral winters with maximum and minimum generalized frost frequency of occurrence in the Wet Pampa (central–northwest Argentina). In order to determine the wave trajectories, the ray tracing technique is used in this study. Some theoretical discussion about this technique is also presented. The analysis of the basic state, from a theoretical point of view and based on the calculation of ray tracings, corroborates that remotely excited Rossby waves is the mechanism that favors the maximum occurrence of generalized frosts. The basic state in which the waves propagate is what conditions the places where they are excited. The Rossby waves are excited in determined places of the atmosphere, propagating towards South America along the jet streams that act as wave guides, favoring the generation of generalized frosts. In summary, this paper presents an overview of the ray tracing technique and how it can be used to investigate an important synoptic event, such as frost in a specific region, and its relationship with the propagation of large scale planetary waves.Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; ArgentinaFil: Ambrizzi, Tércio. Universidade de Sao Paulo; Brasi

Connecting heavy precipitation events to outgoing longwave radiation variability scales: Case analysis in Brazil

Se analizan los campos espaciales de la varianza del espectro de radiación de onda larga saliente (OLR, por su sigla en inglés) durante los meses del verano austral 1979-2016 en el sur de Brasil, para diferentes escalas de tiempo: sinóptica, submensual e intraestacional. Los campos de variabilidad difieren tanto en intensidad como en ubicación y resaltan los ciclos de convección dominantes en el área de estudio. La amplitud de la variabilidad submensual es mayor que la de las otras escalas en la región sudeste de Brasil, mientras que la escala sinóptica prevalece en la región sur. Las escalas mencionadas anteriormente muestran mayores am-plitudes sobre el Océano Pacífico occidental donde la Oscilación Madden-Julian juega un papel importante, a lo largo de la Zona de Convergencia del Pacífico Sur y sobre las áreas de trayectoria de tormentas sobre el Océano Pacífico sur. También se analiza la influencia de la interacción espectral de OLR asociada con la ocurrencia de dos eventos de lluvia intensa en el sudeste de Brasil en los veranos de 2011 y 2014, cuando la Zona de Convergencia del Atlántico Sur (SACZ) estuvo activa en ambos eventos. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que la interacción entre escalas espectrales de OLR tiene lugar de forma tal que fortalece la SACZ, ya que los patrones espaciales de la escala temporal de dos a ocho días (sinóptica), la escala temporal de 10 a 30 días (submensual) y la escala temporal de 30 a 60 días (intraestacional), se superponen en la región de estudio.Spatial fields of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) spectrum variance of the 1979-2016 austral summer months in southern Brazil are analyzed on different timescales: synoptic, sub-monthly, and intra-seasonal. Variability fields differ both in intensity and location and highlight dominant convection cycles in the study area. The results show that the amplitude of sub-monthly variability is greater than that of the other scales in the southeastern region of Brazil, while the synoptic scale prevails in the southern region. The above-mentioned scales show greater amplitudes over the western Pacific Ocean where the Madden-Julian Oscillation plays an important role, along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and over the storm track areas over the South Pacific Ocean. The influence of spectral OLR scale interaction is also analyzed, associated to the occurrence of two intense rainfall events over the southeastern Brazil in the austral summers of 2011 and 2014 when the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) was active in both events. The results obtained suggest that spectral OLR scale interaction takes place in such way that it strengthens the SACZ, since the spatial pattern footprints of the two to eight-day timescale (synoptic), 10 to 30-day timescale (sub-monthly) and 30 to 60-day timescale (intra-seasonal) overlap in the study region.Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Fernandes, Valesca. Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres; Brasi

Variability and Changes in Temperature, Precipitation and Snow in the Desaguadero-Salado-Chadileuvú-Curacó Basin, Argentina

We analyze the variability and changes in mean temperature, annual precipitation, and snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Desaguadero-Salado-Chadileuvú-Curacó (DSCC) basin, observed in a recent period, and their projected future values. The current climate and observed changes are studied based on the scarce observation records available in the region. Simulations from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) are used for the analysis of future climate projections. The mean annual temperature presents a major rise between 1 and 2 °C throughout the region in the 1961–2020 period. The annual precipitation has nonlinear positive trends of varied importance. The SWE has decreased noticeably since 2010. Interannual variability also plays a key role, with dominant cycles between 2.8 and 4 years and between 7.5 and 10 years. The projected changes, computed as the difference between the 1985–2014 and 2021–2050 averages, reveal a rise in mean annual temperature in the entire basin, with an eastward magnitude increase from 1 to more than 2 °C. The annual precipitation is projected to increase up to 10% over most of the basin, except in the Andes, where it will decrease. The maximum annual SWE will also continue to decrease, in agreement with the trend observed in recent years.Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentin

Ἰδέα y οὐσία en Numenio de Apamea

Este trabajo intenta reconstruir un hito importante en la historia de la exégesis de la ontología platónica anterior a Plotino: la concepción de las nociones οὐσία e ἰδέα en Numenio de Apamea, tal como puede ser reconstruida a partir de los fragmentos y testimonios que han llegado hasta nosotros. En primer lugar, me ocupo de una serie de fragmentos que caracterizan a la οὐσία y al ser (ὄν) por contraposición a la materia y a lo sensible, e intento mostrar la compleja relación entre el bien (τἀγαθόν), ser (ὄν) y οὐσία. La segunda parte del trabajo, está dedicada al análisis del fragmento 16, que es el que más claramente muestra la complejidad del planteo ontológico numeniano y su relación con el establecimiento de una jerarquía dentro del ámbito divino que se corresponde, a su vez, con una distinción dentro del plano de la οὐσία. En una tercera parte, comento aquellos fragmentos en los que aparece el término ἰδέα, que evidencian un uso de la teoría de la participación aplicada al interior del ámbito inteligible, y un testimonio de Proclo, que nos trasmite la doctrina numeniana de los tres dioses y que muestra la interrelación entre ontología y teología que pretendo defender.AbstractThis work attempts to reconstruct an important milestone in the history of the exegesis of Platonic ontology before Plotinus: the conception of the notions οὐσία and ἰδέα in Numenius of Apamea, as can be reconstructed from various fragments and testimonies which have reached us. Firstly, I deal with a series of fragments that characterize the οὐσία and being (ὄν) as opposed to matter and sensible, and I try to show the complex relationship between good (τἀγαθόν), being (ὄν) and οὐσία. The second part of the work is devoted to the analysis of the fragment 16, which is the one most clearly shows the complexity of Numenius’ ontology and its relation with the establishment of a hierarchy within the divine which corresponds, in turn, with a distinction within the οὐσία. In a third part, I comment those fragments in which the term ἰδέα appears, that also show the use of the theory of participation within the intelligible realm, and a testimony from Proclus, that conveys Numenius’ doctrine of three gods and shows the relationship between ontology and theology I attempt to defend

Analysis of south hemisphere temperature anomalies over the last millennium up to the beginning of the contemporary age: a comparison between a statistical model and a global dynamic model

We analyze the consistency of the coupled atmosphere-ocean GISS-ER climate model in reproducing South American temperature anomalies over the last millennium. For that purpose, we compare the model results with the Neukom’s temperature anomaly reconstruction provided by a statistical model that uses multiproxy data and climatological temperature anomalies. Specifically, we examine temperature anomalies for summer and winter of a 6-member ensemble of the GISS-ER model with 1× solar forcing and 2× solar forcing, calculated for the period 1000-1899. Using the Neukom’s reconstructions and the model outputs, we calculate the summer mean anomalies of the period 1001-1700 (a period that includes Medieval Climate Anomaly -MCA- and Little Ice Age -LIA-), and winter mean anomalies of the period 1706-1800 (a period that includes the pre-industrial period). These mean anomalies are subtracted from Neukom’s reconstructions defining the reconstructions wrt 1001-1700 (summer) and wrt 1706-1800 (summer and winter). In general, the model is not very consistent with the reconstructions, since the model’s mean and spread show very small interannual variability in contrast to what the reconstructions exhibit, and often with anomalies of opposite sign. In the period 1001-1700, the model presents, on average, negative temperature anomalies for the 1× and 2× forcing. In the period 1706-1800, the model displays positive anomalies for summer and negative anomalies for winter for the 1× and 2× forcing. In particular, the anomaly that better reproduces the sign of the reconstructions is that wrt 1001-1700 with 1× forcing and for summer. The model has an error of only 33% in reproducing the sign of the anomalies, in comparison to the Neukom’s reconstruction for the same reference period. The model’s anomaly wrt 1001-1700 with 1× forcing for summer also reproduces the MCA and LIA’s sign of the reconstruction. The MCA’s sign is reproduced in almost 75% of the comparisons, and the LIA’s sign in more than 73% of the comparisons with the reconstruction, indicating that the model can represent this important anomalies.Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; ArgentinaFil: Rabelo Da Rocha Repinaldo, Cintia. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; Argentin

Relationship between the sea surface temperature of different oceans and the maize yields in the Argentine Pampa region

La temperatura superficial del mar (TSM) guarda estrecha relación con algunas variables climáticas como la precipitación en el sudeste de Sudamérica y en particular con algunos cultivos en la Pampa Húmeda. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la relación entre la TSM de los océanos Pacífico, Atlántico e Indico y los rendimientos del cultivo de maíz en dicha región. Se comprobó que los rendimientos de maíz responden en mayor o menor medida a las fluctuaciones de las TSM en los diferentes océanos, exceptuando parte del sur y el sudoeste de la región de estudio, coincidente con el sur de la provincia de Buenos Aires y este de La Pampa, donde la relación es muy débil o inexistente. Para el resto de la región de estudio se observó una significativa influencia del océano Pacífico subtropical y ecuatorial en la región del ENOS, el océano Indico en presencia del dipolo (DOI) y del océano Atlántico tropical y subtropical occidental principalmente durante la primavera y en algunos casos en el otoño.The sea surface temperature anomalies (SST) are closely related to the precipitation anomalies in central and eastern Argentina and therefore they are related to some crops in the Argentine Pampa region as well. The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between SST in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans and maize yields in the Pampa region. It is found that maize yields respond in different ways to the SST variability, except for the south, southeast and west of Buenos Aires province and the east of the La Pampa province, where the signal is either weak or nonexistent. It is also found that some oceanic regions have a significant influence over the rest of the Pampa region, in particular the subtropical Pacific Ocean, the equatorial Pacific Ocean ENSO region, the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and the tropical and subtropical western Atlantic Ocean mainly in the spring and in some cases in the fall.Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; ArgentinaFil: Fernández Long, María Elena. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Bosch, Ezequiel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; Argentin

Predictive models of minimum temperatures for the south of Buenos Aires province

Depending on the time of development of a crop temperature below 0 °C can cause damage to the plant, altering its development and subsequent yield. Since frosts are identified from the minimum air temperature, the objective of this research paper is to generate forecast -(predictive) models at 1, 3 and 5 days of the minimum daily temperature (Tmin) for Bahía Blanca city. Non-linear numerical models are generated using artificial neural networks and geometric models of finite elements. Six independent variables are used: temperature and dew point temperature at meteorological shelter level, relative humidity, cloudiness observed above the station, wind speed and direction measured at 10 m altitude. Data have been obtained between May and September from 1956 to 2015. Once the available data had been analyzed, this period was reduced to 2007–2015. For the selection of the most suitable model, the correlation coefficient of Pearson (R), the determination coefficient (R2) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) are evaluated. The results of the study determine that the geometric model of finite elements with 4 variables, over 9 years (2007–2015) and separated by the season of the year is the one that presents better adjustment in the forecast of Tmin with up to 5 days of anticipation.Fil: Hernandez, Gabriela Lorena. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Villacampa, Yolanda. Universidad de Alicante; EspañaFil: Navarro González, Francisco José. Universidad de Alicante; EspañaFil: Aragonés, Luis. Universidad de Alicante; Españ

Relationship between ENSO cycles and frost events within the Pampa humeda region

The objective of the present paper is to analyse the possible impact of ENSO events on the spatial and the temporal distribution of frost occurrences, within the central region of Argentina. Therefore, the minimum temperature series have been studied for 41 meteorological stations within the Pampa Húmeda region and, for a period of 30 years from 1961 to 1990, exploring possible relationships with El Niño (EN)/La Niña (LN) events and the changes in the Southern Oscillation. It can be concluded that part of the frost frequency variability within this region is explained by the ENSO cycle. Results indicate that, for at least 1 of the 2 years in which the EN event takes place, the mean number of frost occurrences drops below the climatological value. The low phase of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) also coincides with those years for which the number of frost events remained below the total annual mean in all cases, with the year 1965 as an exception. Conversely, during the high phase of the SOI, this number was above the total annual mean for four of the six classified cases. In the particular case of seasonal frost occurrence, it is related to the warm event development state, exhibiting a greater impact during the autumn and winter months, for which the cold event also seems to have influence. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological SocietyFil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Nuñez, Mario Nestor. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Seluchi, Marcelo Enrique. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin

2019/2020 drought impacts on South America and atmospheric and oceanic influences

The 2019/2020 drought in South America caused many impacts on several sectors, as agriculture, water resources and environment, which are reported here. Besides, there is a discussion about anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean during the analyzed period. In a regional scale, there was a reduction of humidity flux over the continent, and in a large scale, the occurrence of different processes could have contributed to the dry conditions. There was a persistent pattern of west-east convection anomalies in the tropical Pacific that could be related to the steady conditions observed over South America and southeast South Atlantic from September 2019 to March 2020. The extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole during 2019 austral spring was another event that could have influenced temperature and precipitation in South America through a wavetrain from the Indian Ocean to the South American continent. The Sudden Stratospheric Warming that occurred in September 2019 induced the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode in December, which generated subsidence over the subtropics and affected the precipitation over South America. In addition, from September 2019 to March 2020, the heating observed in the stratosphere propagated to the troposphere over South America. Ocean indices from 1982 to 2020 are analyzed in the context of dry conditions in the continent and it was observed the relations with AMO, PDO, IOD and El Niño 3.4. From September 2019 to March 2020, there were positive SST anomalies in all oceans, mainly in the North Atlantic Ocean, which could have contributed also to subsidence over South America through a meridional circulation, as seen in other cases. At the end of the studied period, the development of La Niña extended the situation of reduced precipitation in Southern Brazil.Fil: Gomes, Mariah Souza. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentin