Time preferences and risk aversion: tests on domain differences

The design and evaluation of environmental policy requires the incorporation of time and risk elements as many environmental outcomes extend over long time periods and involve a large degree of uncertainty. Understanding how individuals discount and evaluate risks with respect to environmental outcomes is a prime component in designing effective environmental policy to address issues of environmental sustainability, such as climate change. Our objective in this study is to investigate whether subjects' time preferences and risk aversion across the monetary domain and the environmental domain differ. Crucially, our experimental design is incentivized: in the monetary domain, time preferences and risk aversion are elicited with real monetary payoffs, whereas in the environmental domain, we elicit time preferences and risk aversion using real (bee-friendly) plants. We find that subjects' time preferences are not significantly different across the monetary and environmental domains. In contrast, subjects' risk aversion is significantly different across the two domains. More specifically, subjects (men and women) exhibit a higher degree of risk aversion in the environmental domain relative to the monetary domain. Finally, we corroborate earlier results, which document that women are more risk averse than men in the monetary domain. We show this finding to, also, hold in the environmental domain

Reconsidering the use of rankings in the valuation of health states: a model for estimating cardinal values from ordinal data

BACKGROUND: In survey studies on health-state valuations, ordinal ranking exercises often are used as precursors to other elicitation methods such as the time trade-off (TTO) or standard gamble, but the ranking data have not been used in deriving cardinal valuations. This study reconsiders the role of ordinal ranks in valuing health and introduces a new approach to estimate interval-scaled valuations based on aggregate ranking data. METHODS: Analyses were undertaken on data from a previously published general population survey study in the United Kingdom that included rankings and TTO values for hypothetical states described using the EQ-5D classification system. The EQ-5D includes five domains (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression) with three possible levels on each. Rank data were analysed using a random utility model, operationalized through conditional logit regression. In the statistical model, probabilities of observed rankings were related to the latent utilities of different health states, modeled as a linear function of EQ-5D domain scores, as in previously reported EQ-5D valuation functions. Predicted valuations based on the conditional logit model were compared to observed TTO values for the 42 states in the study and to predictions based on a model estimated directly from the TTO values. Models were evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between predictions and mean observations, and the root mean squared error of predictions at the individual level. RESULTS: Agreement between predicted valuations from the rank model and observed TTO values was very high, with an ICC of 0.97, only marginally lower than for predictions based on the model estimated directly from TTO values (ICC = 0.99). Individual-level errors were also comparable in the two models, with root mean squared errors of 0.503 and 0.496 for the rank-based and TTO-based predictions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Modeling health-state valuations based on ordinal ranks can provide results that are similar to those obtained from more widely analyzed valuation techniques such as the TTO. The information content in aggregate ranking data is not currently exploited to full advantage. The possibility of estimating cardinal valuations from ordinal ranks could also simplify future data collection dramatically and facilitate wider empirical study of health-state valuations in diverse settings and population groups

Establishment and interspecific associations in two species of Ichthyocotylurus (Trematoda) parasites in perch (Perca fluviatilis)

Background: Co-infections of multiple parasite species in hosts may lead to interspecific associations and subsequently shape the structure of a parasite community. However, few studies have focused on these associations in highly abundant parasite species or, in particular, investigated how the associations develop with time in hosts exposed to co-infecting parasite species for the first time. We investigated metacercarial establishment and interspecific associations in the trematodes Ichthyocotylurus variegatus and I. pileatus co-infecting three age cohorts of young perch (Perca fluviatilis). Results: We found that the timing of transmission of the two Ichthyocotylurus species was very similar, but they showed differences in metacercarial development essentially so that the metacercariae of I. pileatus became encapsulated faster. Correlations between the abundances of the species were significantly positive after the first summer of host life and also within the main site of infection, the swim bladder. High or low abundances of both parasite species were also more frequent in the same host individuals than expected by chance, independently of host age or size. However, the highest abundances of the species were nevertheless observed in different host individuals and this pattern was consistent in all age cohorts. Conclusions: The results suggest similar temporal patterns of transmission, non-random establishment, and facilitative rather than competitive associations between the parasite species independently of the age of the infracommunities. However, we suggest that spatial differences in exposure are most likely responsible for the segregation of the parasite species observed in the few most heavily infected hosts. Regardless of the underlying mechanism, the result suggests that between-species associations should be interpreted with caution along with detailed examination of the parasite distribution among host individuals.peerReviewe

AXIOM: advanced X-ray imaging of the magnetosphere

Planetary plasma and magnetic field environments can be studied in two complementary ways—by in situ measurements, or by remote sensing. While the former provide precise information about plasma behaviour, instabilities and dynamics on local scales, the latter offers the global view necessary to understand the overall interaction of the magnetospheric plasma with the solar wind. Some parts of the Earth’s magnetosphere have been remotely sensed, but the majority remains unexplored by this type of measurements. Here we propose a novel and more elegant approach employing remote X-ray imaging techniques, which are now possible thanks to the relatively recent discovery of solar wind charge exchange X-ray emissions in the vicinity of the Earth’s magnetosphere. In this article we describe how an appropriately designed and located X-ray telescope, supported by simultaneous in situ measurements of the solar wind, can be used to image the dayside magnetosphere, magnetosheath and bow shock, with a temporal and spatial resolution sufficient to address several key outstanding questions concerning how the solar wind interacts with the Earth’s magnetosphere on a global level. Global images of the dayside magnetospheric boundaries require vantage points well outside the magnetosphere. Our studies have led us to propose ‘AXIOM: Advanced X-ray Imaging of the Magnetosphere’, a concept mission using a Vega launcher with a LISA Pathfinder-type Propulsion Module to place the spacecraft in a Lissajous orbit around the Earth–Moon L1 point. The model payload consists of an X-ray Wide Field Imager, capable of both imaging and spectroscopy, and an in situ plasma and magnetic field measurement package. This package comprises a Proton-Alpha Sensor, designed to measure the bulk properties of the solar wind, an Ion Composition Analyser, to characterise the minor ion populations in the solar wind that cause charge exchange emission, and a Magnetometer, designed to measure the strength and direction of the solar wind magnetic field. We also show simulations that demonstrate how the proposed X-ray telescope design is capable of imaging the predicted emission from the dayside magnetosphere with the sensitivity and cadence required to achieve the science goals of the mission

AdS_3/LCFT_2 - Correlators in Cosmological Topologically Massive Gravity

For cosmological topologically massive gravity at the chiral point we calculate momentum space 2- and 3-point correlators of operators in the postulated dual CFT on the cylinder. These operators are sourced by the bulk and boundary gravitons. Our correlators are fully consistent with the proposal that cosmological topologically massive gravity at the chiral point is dual to a logarithmic CFT. In the process we give a complete classification of normalizable and non-normalizeable left, right and logarithmic solutions to the linearized equations of motion in global AdS_3.Comment: 39 pages + appendices, 1 eps figure, v2: minor changes in text in 4.1.2, corrected typo in (2.31

Soil resource supply influences faunal size–specific distributions in natural food webs

The large range of body-mass values of soil organisms provides a tool to assess the ecological organization of soil communities. The goal of this paper is to identify graphical and quantitative indicators of soil community composition and ecosystem functioning, and to illustrate their application to real soil food webs. The relationships between log-transformed mass and abundance of soil organisms in 20 Dutch meadows and heathlands were investigated. Using principles of allometry, maximal use can be made of ecological theory to build and explain food webs. The aggregate contribution of small invertebrates such as nematodes to the entire community is high under low soil phosphorus content and causes shifts in the mass–abundance relationships and in the trophic structures. We show for the first time that the average of the trophic link lengths is a reliable predictor for assessing soil fertility responses. Ordered trophic link pairs suggest a self-organizing structure of food webs according to resource availability and can predict environmental shifts in ecologically meaningful ways

Overview of the CCP4 suite and current developments.

The CCP4 (Collaborative Computational Project, Number 4) software suite is a collection of programs and associated data and software libraries which can be used for macromolecular structure determination by X-ray crystallography. The suite is designed to be flexible, allowing users a number of methods of achieving their aims. The programs are from a wide variety of sources but are connected by a common infrastructure provided by standard file formats, data objects and graphical interfaces. Structure solution by macromolecular crystallography is becoming increasingly automated and the CCP4 suite includes several automation pipelines. After giving a brief description of the evolution of CCP4 over the last 30 years, an overview of the current suite is given. While detailed descriptions are given in the accompanying articles, here it is shown how the individual programs contribute to a complete software package

Unravelling the novel Higgs mechanism in (2+1)d Chern-Simons theories

Chern-Simons gauge theories in 2+1 dimensions with multiple gauge fields exhibit novel properties that are analysed here in some detail. A striking feature is the possibility of a non-propagating Chern-Simons field acquiring a massless propagating mode via a Higgs mechanism. This novel Higgs mechanism, originally discovered in the context of M-theory, is studied here without reference to M-theory or supersymmetry. It is revealed as a variant of topological mass generation and shown to arise only when Chern-Simons and mass matrices are not simultaneously diagonalisable. Sufficient conditions are found for it to occur. It is speculated that some analogue of the NHM could occur in theories of condensed-matter systems similar to those exhibiting the fractional quantum Hall effect, as well as in 2+1 dimensional gravity.Comment: 28 page

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty