Adjustment for time-invariant and time-varying confounders in ‘unexplained residuals’ models for longitudinal data within a causal framework and associated challenges

‘Unexplained residuals’ models have been used within lifecourse epidemiology to model an exposure measured longitudinally at several time points in relation to a distal outcome. It has been claimed that these models have several advantages, including: the ability to estimate multiple total causal effects in a single model, and additional insight into the effect on the outcome of greater-than-expected increases in the exposure compared to traditional regression methods. We evaluate these properties and prove mathematically how adjustment for confounding variables must be made within this modelling framework. Importantly, we explicitly place unexplained residual models in a causal framework using directed acyclic graphs. This allows for theoretical justification of appropriate confounder adjustment and provides a framework for extending our results to more complex scenarios than those examined in this paper. We also discuss several interpretational issues relating to unexplained residual models within a causal framework. We argue that unexplained residual models offer no additional insights compared to traditional regression methods, and, in fact, are more challenging to implement; moreover, they artificially reduce estimated standard errors. Consequently, we conclude that unexplained residual models, if used, must be implemented with great care

Development and evaluation of a rapid molecular diagnostic test for Zika virus infection by reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification

The recent outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease caused an enormous number of infections in Central and South America, and the unusual increase in the number of infants born with microcephaly associated with ZIKV infection aroused global concern. Here, we developed a reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay using a portable device for the detection of ZIKV. The assay specifically detected ZIKV strains of both Asian and African genotypes without cross-reactivity with other arboviruses, including Dengue and Chikungunya viruses. The assay detected viral RNA at 14.5 TCID50/mL in virus-spiked serum or urine samples within 15?min, although it was slightly less sensitive than reference real time RT-PCR assay. We then evaluated the utility of this assay as a molecular diagnostic test using 90 plasma or serum samples and 99 urine samples collected from 120 suspected cases of arbovirus infection in the states of Paraiba and Pernambuco, Brazil in 2016. The results of this assay were consistent with those of the reference RT-PCR test. This portable RT-LAMP assay was highly specific for ZIKV, and enable rapid diagnosis of the virus infection. Our results provide new insights into ZIKV molecular diagnostics and may improve preparedness for future outbreaks

Early determinants of metabolically healthy obesity in young adults:study of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966

Abstract Background: A body of literature suggests a metabolically healthy phenotype in individuals with obesity. Despite important clinical implications, the early origins of metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) have received little attention. Objective: To assess the prevalence of MHO among the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC1966) at 31 years of age, examine its determinants in early life taking into account the sex specificity. Methods: We studied 3205 term-born cohort participants with data available for cardio-metabolic health outcomes at 31 years, and longitudinal height and weight data. After stratifying the population by sex, adult BMI and a strict definition of metabolic health (i.e., no risk factors meaning metabolic health), we obtained six groups. Repeated childhood height and weight measures were used to model early growth and early adiposity phenotypes. We employed marginal means adjusted for mother and child covariates including socio-economic status, birth weight and gestational-age, to compare differences between the groups. Results: The prevalence of adult MHO was 6% in men and 13.5% in women. Differences in adult metabolic status were linked to alterations in BMI and age at adiposity peak in infancy (p < 0.0003 in men and p = 0.027 in women), and BMI and age at adiposity rebound (AR) (p < 0.0001 irrespective of sex). Compared to MHO, metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) women were five and a half months younger at AR (p = 0.007) with a higher BMI while MUO men were four months older ( p = 0.036) with no difference in BMI at AR. Conclusion: At the time of AR, MHO women appeared to be older than their MUO counterparts while MHO men were younger. These original results support potential risk factors at the time of adiposity rebound linked to metabolic health in adulthood. These variations by sex warrant independent replication