On misunderstanding Heraclitus: The justice of organisation structure

Writers on organisational change often refer to the cosmology of Heraclitus in their work. Some use these references to support arguments for the constancy and universality of organisational change and the consignment to history of organisational continuity and stability. These writers misunderstand the scope of what Heraclitus said. Other writers focus exclusively on the idea that originated with Heraclitus that the universe is composed of processes and not of things. This idea, which has been particularly associated with Heraclitus’s thought from the time of Plato, does indeed provide a rich source of insights into organisational analysis, not least the current trends towards giving proper attention to processual studies of organisational change. Yet there is some uncertainty as to whether Heraclitus actually said that the universe was composed exclusively of processes rather than things, and even if that was what he thought, he intended his ideas on flux to be understood not in isolation but in the context of other aspects of his cosmology. Writers on organisational change seldom make reference to this wider context. Heraclitus was a rational but also a religious thinker. A central element in his thought was the notion of divine Justice, which to a Greek of his era meant the order of the universe. Remote as his Olympian theology may seem today, it sets a crucial and entirely rational context for understanding his ideas about flux. It means that ideas about continuity and stability were quite as important in Heraclitus’s cosmology as his more commonly quoted ideas about change. This paper sets out an overview of Heraclitus’s philosophy, insofar as it appears to have potential relevance to organisational analysis, and discusses how far it supports or contradicts the ideas that organisational change scholars have drawn from it

State of the California current 2012-13: No such thing as an “average” year

This report reviews the state of the California Current System (CCS) between winter 2012 and spring 2013, and includes observations from Washington State to Baja California. During 2012, large-scale climate modes indicated the CCS remained in a cool, productive phase present since 2007. The upwelling season was delayed north of 42°N, but regions to the south, especially 33° to 36°N, experienced average to above average upwelling that persisted throughout the summer. Contrary to the indication of high production suggested by the climate indices, chlorophyll observed from surveys and remote sensing was below average along much of the coast. As well, some members of the forage assemblages along the coast experienced low abundances in 2012 surveys. Specifically, the concentrations of all lifestages observed directly or from egg densities of Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax, and northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, were less than previous years’ survey estimates. However, 2013 surveys and observations indicate an increase in abundance of northern anchovy. During winter 2011/2012, the increased presence of northern copepod species off northern California was consistent with stronger southward transport. Krill and small-fraction zooplankton abundances, where examined, were generally above average. North of 42°N, salps returned to typical abundances in 2012 after greater observed concentrations in 2010 and 2011. In contrast, salp abundance off central and southern California increased after a period of southward transport during winter 2011/2012. Reproductive success of piscivorous Brandt’s cormorant, Phalacrocorax penicillatus, was reduced while planktivorous Cassin’s auklet, Ptychoramphus aleuticus was elevated. Differences between the productivity of these two seabirds may be related to the available forage assemblage observed in the surveys. California sea lion pups from San Miguel Island were undernourished resulting in a pup mortality event perhaps in response to changes in forage availability. Limited biological data were available for spring 2013, but strong winter upwelling coastwide indicated an early spring transition, with the strong upwelling persisting into early summer

Comparison of DNA recovery methods and locations from regularly-worn hooded jumpers before and after use by a second wearer.

Items of worn clothing are routinely examined for DNA in forensic casework, commonly with the expectation that at least some of the DNA will come from a wearer of the item, so-called 'wearer DNA'. This study investigated DNA recovered from hooded jumpers that were regularly worn and laundered for four weeks and then subsequently worn by a different individual for four hours. This study also systematically investigated whether using different recovery methods or sampling locations on the jumpers might distinguish between DNA deposited by the regular and most recent wearers of clothing. Four volunteers each wore a new hooded jumper regularly (6 h/day, 2 days/week, washed at weekends) during two 4-week periods. At the end of each month, DNA was first recovered by cutting out and mini-taping the inside left cuff, half-collar, pocket and underarm fabric. The jumpers were then worn by a different individual for four hours, and DNA was again recovered by cutting out and mini-taping, but this time from the inside right cuff, half-collar, pocket and underarm fabric. All DNA samples (n = 128) were quantified and profiled. DNA quantities ranged from 0 to ∼40 ng with an outlier of ∼150 ng, and no significant differences were observed among recovery methods and sampling locations, nor whether one or two wearers had worn the jumpers. However, one volunteer consistently deposited significantly more DNA to their jumpers than two other volunteers, confirming the impact of 'shedder status' on DNA deposition during wearing of clothing. When jumpers were regularly worn by one wearer, the majority (72.7-83.3 %) of the samples for all wearers across both months comprised a major profile of the wearer with a minor profile of non-wearer alleles. When jumpers were then worn by a second wearer, the composition of the profiles obtained were generally reproducible across the recovery methods used, the sampling locations and the two replicates of the experiment for each pairing of wearers. However, profile compositions differed between wearer pairings. Overall, ∼60 % of profiles obtained gave a major profile of the regular wearer, whereas ∼30 % gave a major profile of the second wearer. The remaining profiles comprised other much less frequent observations of single-source profiles of each wearer and equal proportions of DNA from both wearers. Non-wearer DNA was also observed in the majority of samples, both before and after jumpers were worn by a second wearer. For one volunteer's jumpers, a recurring non-wearer DNA profile was observed that could be attributed to their romantic partner, and this DNA persisted on the jumpers even after being worn by the second wearer. This study provides insight on the impact of shedder status, multiple wearers, different recovery methods and sampling locations on the quantities of DNA and compositions of DNA profiles recovered from authentically regularly-worn hooded jumpers. The findings also provide a preliminary dataset that can be used to infer activity level probabilities in casework

A new, large-bodied omnivorous bat (Noctilionoidea: Mystacinidae) reveals lost morphological and ecological diversity since the Miocene in New Zealand

A new genus and species of fossil bat is described from New Zealand's only pre-Pleistocene Cenozoic terrestrial fauna, the early Miocene St Bathans Fauna of Central Otago, South Island. Bayesian total evidence phylogenetic analysis places this new Southern Hemisphere taxon among the burrowing bats (mystacinids) of New Zealand and Australia, although its lower dentition also resembles Africa's endemic sucker-footed bats (myzopodids). As the first new bat genus to be added to New Zealand's fauna in more than 150 years, it provides new insight into the original diversity of chiropterans in Australasia. It also underscores the significant decline in morphological diversity that has taken place in the highly distinctive, semi-terrestrial bat family Mystacinidae since the Miocene. This bat was relatively large, with an estimated body mass of ~40 g, and its dentition suggests it had an omnivorous diet. Its striking dental autapomorphies, including development of a large hypocone, signal a shift of diet compared with other mystacinids, and may provide evidence of an adaptive radiation in feeding strategy in this group of noctilionoid bats

Using Bayesian networks to guide the assessment of new evidence in an appeal case.

When new forensic evidence becomes available after a conviction there is no systematic framework to help lawyers to determine whether it raises sufficient questions about the verdict in order to launch an appeal. This paper presents such a framework driven by a recent case, in which a defendant was convicted primarily on the basis of audio evidence, but where subsequent analysis of the evidence revealed additional sounds that were not considered during the trial. The framework is intended to overcome the gap between what is generally known from scientific analyses and what is hypothesized in a legal setting. It is based on Bayesian networks (BNs) which have the potential to be a structured and understandable way to evaluate the evidence in a specific case context. However, BN methods suffered a setback with regards to the use in court due to the confusing way they have been used in some legal cases in the past. To address this concern, we show the extent to which the reasoning and decisions within the particular case can be made explicit and transparent. The BN approach enables us to clearly define the relevant propositions and evidence, and uses sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of the evidence under different assumptions. The results show that such a framework is suitable to identify information that is currently missing, yet clearly crucial for a valid and complete reasoning process. Furthermore, a method is provided whereby BNs can serve as a guide to not only reason with incomplete evidence in forensic cases, but also identify very specific research questions that should be addressed to extend the evidence base and solve similar issues in the future.This research was funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of the UK through the Security Science Doctoral Research Training Centre (UCL SECReT) based at University College London (EP/G037264/1), and the European Research Council (ERC-2013-AdG339182-BAYES_KNOWLEDGE)

Population-Level Benefits from Providing Effective HIV Prevention Means to Pregnant Women in High Prevalence Settings

Background:HIV prevalence among pregnant women in Southern Africa is extremely high. Epidemiological studies suggest that pregnancy increases the risk of HIV sexual acquisition and that HIV infections acquired during pregnancy carry higher risk of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). We analyze the potential benefits from extending the availability of effective microbicide to pregnant women (in addition to non-pregnant women) in a wide-scale intervention.Methods and Findings:A transmission dynamic model was designed to assess the impact of microbicide use in high HIV prevalence settings and to estimate proportions of new HIV infections, infections acquired during pregnancy, and MTCT prevented over 10 years. Our analysis suggests that consistent use of microbicide with 70% efficacy by 60% of non-pregnant women may prevent approximately 40% and 15% of new infections in women and men respectively over 10 years, assuming no additional increase in HIV risk to either partner during pregnancy (RRHIV/preg = 1). It may also prevent 8-15% MTCT depending on the increase in MTCT risk when HIV is acquired during pregnancy compared to before pregnancy (RRMTCT/preg). Extending the microbicides use during pregnancy may improve the effectiveness of the intervention by 10% (RRHIV/preg = 1) to 25% (RRHIV/preg = 2) and reduce the number of HIV infections acquired during pregnancy by 40% to 70% in different scenarios. It may add between 6% (RRHIV/preg = 1, RRMTCT/preg = 1) and 25% (RRHIV/preg = 2, RRMTCT/preg = 4) to the reduction in the residual MTCT.Conclusion:Providing safe and effective microbicide to pregnant women in the context of wide-scale interventions would be desirable as it would increase the effectiveness of the intervention and significantly reduce the number of HIV infections acquired during pregnancy. The projected benefits from covering pregnant women by the HIV prevention programs is more substantial in communities in which the sexual risk during pregnancy is elevated. © 2013 Dimitrov et al

Chalk-steel Interface testing for marine energy foundations

The Energy Technology Partnership (ETP) and Lloyd’s Register EMEA are gratefully acknowledged for the funding of this project. The authors would also like to acknowledge the support of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) SMART Centre at the University of Dundee that allowed purchase of the equipment used during this study. The views expressed are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily represent the views of their respective companies or employing organizations.Peer reviewedPostprin

The incidence of unpleasant dreams after sub-anaesthetic ketamine

Ketamine is an N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA)receptor antagonist with psychotogenic effects and for whichthere are diverse reports of whether pleasant or unpleasantdreams result during anaesthesia, post-operatively or aftersub-anaesthetic use. The aim was to assess in healthy volunteers the incidence ofunpleasant dreams over the three nights after receiving asub-anaesthetic dose of ketamine, in comparison to placebo,and with retrospective home nightmare frequency as acovariate.Thirty healthy volunteers completed questionnairesabout retrospective home dream recall and were then giveneither ketamine or placebo. Ketamine resulted in significantly more meandream unpleasantness relative to placebo and caused athreefold increase in the odds ratio for the incidence of anunpleasant dream. The number of dreams reported over thethree nights did not differ between the groups. Theincidence of unpleasant dreams after ketamine use waspredicted by retrospectively assessed nightmare frequencyat home.Ketamine causes unpleasant dreams over thethree post-administration nights. This may be evidence of aresidual psychotogenic effect that is not found on standardself-report symptomatology measures or a result of disturbedsleep electrophysiology. The results have theoretical implications for the relationship between nightmares and schizotypy

Photoperiod Regulates Lean Mass Accretion, but Not Adiposity, in Growing F344 Rats Fed a High Fat Diet

yesIn this study the effects of photoperiod and diet, and their interaction, were examined for their effects on growth and body composition in juvenile F344 rats over a 4-week period. On long (16L:8D), relative to short (8L:16D), photoperiod food intake and growth rate were increased, but percentage adiposity remained constant (ca 3-4%). On a high fat diet (HFD), containing 22.8% fat (45% energy as fat), food intake was reduced, but energy intake increased on both photoperiods. This led to a small increase in adiposity (up to 10%) without overt change in body weight. These changes were also reflected in plasma leptin and lipid levels. Importantly while both lean and adipose tissue were strongly regulated by photoperiod on a chow diet, this regulation was lost for adipose, but not lean tissue, on HFD. This implies that a primary effect of photoperiod is the regulation of growth and lean mass accretion. Consistent with this both hypothalamic GHRH gene expression and serum IGF-1 levels were photoperiod dependent. As for other animals and humans, there was evidence of central hyposomatotropism in response to obesity, as GHRH gene expression was suppressed by the HFD. Gene expression of hypothalamic AgRP and CRH, but not NPY nor POMC, accorded with the energy balance status on long and short photoperiod. However, there was a general dissociation between plasma leptin levels and expression of these hypothalamic energy balance genes. Similarly there was no interaction between the HFD and photoperiod at the level of the genes involved in thyroid hormone metabolism (Dio2, Dio3, TSHβ or NMU), which are important mediators of the photoperiodic response. These data suggest that photoperiod and HFD influence body weight and body composition through independent mechanisms but in each case the role of the hypothalamic energy balance genes is not predictable based on their known function.Scottish Government (Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division, http://www.scotland.gov.uk/), AWR LR LMT PJM and the BBSRC, (http://www.bbsrc.ac.uk/home/home.aspx, grant BB/K001043/1), AWR GH PJ

Polar vortex formation in giant-planet atmospheres due to moist convection

A strong cyclonic vortex has been observed on each of Saturn’s poles, coincident with a local maximum in observed tropospheric temperature. Neptune also exhibits a relatively warm, although much more transient, region on its south pole. Whether similar features exist on Jupiter will be resolved by the 2016 Juno mission. Energetic, small-scale storm-like features that originate from the water-cloud level or lower have been observed on each of the giant planets and attributed to moist convection, suggesting that these storms play a significant role in global heat transfer from the hot interior to space. Nevertheless, the creation and maintenance of Saturn’s polar vortices, and their presence or absence on the other giant planets, are not understood. Here we use simulations with a shallow-water model to show that storm generation, driven by moist convection, can create a strong polar cyclone throughout the depth of a planet’s troposphere. We find that the type of shallow polar flow that occurs on a giant planet can be described by the size ratio of small eddies to the planetary radius and the energy density of its atmosphere due to latent heating from moist convection. We suggest that the observed difference in these parameters between Saturn and Jupiter may preclude a Jovian polar cyclone.National Science Foundation (U.S.). Graduate Research FellowshipNational Science Foundation (U.S.) (ATM-0850639)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (AGS-1032244)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (AGS-1136480)United States. Office of Naval Research (N00014-14-1-0062