Can people guess what happened to others from their reactions?

Are we able to infer what happened to a person from a brief sample of his/her behaviour? It has been proposed that mentalising skills can be used to retrodict as well as predict behaviour, that is, to determine what mental states of a target have already occurred. The current study aimed to develop a paradigm to explore these processes, which takes into account the intricacies of real-life situations in which reasoning about mental states, as embodied in behaviour, may be utilised. A novel task was devised which involved observing subtle and naturalistic reactions of others in order to determine the event that had previously taken place. Thirty-five participants viewed videos of real individuals reacting to the researcher behaving in one of four possible ways, and were asked to judge which of the four ‘scenarios’ they thought the individual was responding to. Their eye movements were recorded to establish the visual strategies used. Participants were able to deduce successfully from a small sample of behaviour which scenario had previously occurred. Surprisingly, looking at the eye region was associated with poorer identification of the scenarios, and eye movement strategy varied depending on the event experienced by the person in the video. This suggests people flexibly deploy their attention using a retrodictive mindreading process to infer events

Does the revised cardiac risk index predict cardiac complications following elective lung resection?

Background: Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score and Thoracic Revised Cardiac Risk Index (ThRCRI) score were developed to predict the risks of postoperative major cardiac complications in generic surgical population and thoracic surgery respectively. This study aims to determine the accuracy of these scores in predicting the risk of developing cardiac complications including atrial arrhythmias after lung resection surgery in adults. Methods: We studied 703 patients undergoing lung resection surgery in a tertiary thoracic surgery centre. Observed outcome measures of postoperative cardiac morbidity and mortality were compared against those predicted by risk. Results: Postoperative major cardiac complications and supraventricular arrhythmias occurred in 4.8% of patients. Both index scores had poor discriminative ability for predicting postoperative cardiac complications with an area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.51-0.67) for the RCRI score and 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.66) for the ThRCRI score. Conclusions: In our cohort, RCRI and ThRCRI scores failed to accurately predict the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing elective resection of lung cancer. The British Thoracic Society (BTS) recommendation to seek a cardiology referral for all asymptomatic pre-operative lung resection patients with > 3 RCRI risk factors is thus unlikely to be of clinical benefit

The demand for sports and exercise: Results from an illustrative survey

Funding from the Department of Health policy research programme was used in this study.There is a paucity of empirical evidence on the extent to which price and perceived benefits affect the level of participation in sports and exercise. Using an illustrative sample of 60 adults at Brunel University, West London, we investigate the determinants of demand for sports and exercise. The data were collected through face-to-face interviews that covered indicators of sports and exercise behaviour; money/time price and perceived benefits of participation; and socio- economic/demographic details. Count, linear and probit regression models were fitted as appropriate. Seventy eight per cent of the sample participated in sports and exercise and spent an average of £27 per month and an average of 20 min travelling per occasion of sports and exercise. The demand for sport and exercise was negatively associated with time (travel or access time) and ‘variable’ price and positively correlated with ‘fixed’ price. Demand was price inelastic, except in the case of meeting the UK government’s recommended level of participation, which is time price elastic (elasticity = −2.2). The implications of data from a larger nationally representative sample as well as the role of economic incentives in influencing uptake of sports and exercise are discussed.This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund

Collapse of superconductivity in a hybrid tin-graphene Josephson junction array

When a Josephson junction array is built with hybrid superconductor/metal/superconductor junctions, a quantum phase transition from a superconducting to a two-dimensional (2D) metallic ground state is predicted to happen upon increasing the junction normal state resistance. Owing to its surface-exposed 2D electron gas and its gate-tunable charge carrier density, graphene coupled to superconductors is the ideal platform to study the above-mentioned transition between ground states. Here we show that decorating graphene with a sparse and regular array of superconducting nanodisks enables to continuously gate-tune the quantum superconductor-to-metal transition of the Josephson junction array into a zero-temperature metallic state. The suppression of proximity-induced superconductivity is a direct consequence of the emergence of quantum fluctuations of the superconducting phase of the disks. Under perpendicular magnetic field, the competition between quantum fluctuations and disorder is responsible for the resilience at the lowest temperatures of a superconducting glassy state that persists above the upper critical field. Our results provide the entire phase diagram of the disorder and magnetic field-tuned transition and unveil the fundamental impact of quantum phase fluctuations in 2D superconducting systems.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure

A simple statistical model for prediction of acute coronary syndrome in chest pain patients in the emergency department

BACKGROUND: Several models for prediction of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) among chest pain patients in the emergency department (ED) have been presented, but many models predict only the likelihood of acute myocardial infarction, or include a large number of variables, which make them less than optimal for implementation at a busy ED. We report here a simple statistical model for ACS prediction that could be used in routine care at a busy ED. METHODS: Multivariable analysis and logistic regression were used on data from 634 ED visits for chest pain. Only data immediately available at patient presentation were used. To make ACS prediction stable and the model useful for personnel inexperienced in electrocardiogram (ECG) reading, simple ECG data suitable for computerized reading were included. RESULTS: Besides ECG, eight variables were found to be important for ACS prediction, and included in the model: age, chest discomfort at presentation, symptom duration and previous hypertension, angina pectoris, AMI, congestive heart failure or PCI/CABG. At an ACS prevalence of 21% and a set sensitivity of 95%, the negative predictive value of the model was 96%. CONCLUSION: The present prediction model, combined with the clinical judgment of ED personnel, could be useful for the early discharge of chest pain patients in populations with a low prevalence of ACS

Microcolony Imaging of Aspergillus fumigatus Treated with Echinocandins Reveals Both Fungistatic and Fungicidal Activities

Background: The echinocandins are lipopeptides that can be employed as antifungal drugs that inhibit the synthesis of 1,3b-glucans within the fungal cell wall. Anidulafungin and caspofungin are echinocandins used in the treatment of Candida infections and have activity against other fungi including Aspergillus fumigatus. The echinocandins are generally considered fungistatic against Aspergillus species. Methods: Culture of A. fumigatus from conidia to microcolonies on a support of porous aluminium oxide (PAO), combined with fluorescence microscopy and scanning electron microscopy, was used to investigate the effects of anidulafungin and caspofungin. The PAO was an effective matrix for conidial germination and microcolony growth. Additionally, PAO supports could be moved between agar plates containing different concentrations of echinocandins to change dosage and to investigate the recovery of fungal microcolonies from these drugs. Culture on PAO combined with microscopy and image analysis permits quantitative studies on microcolony growth with the flexibility of adding or removing antifungal agents, dyes, fixatives or osmotic stresses during growth with minimal disturbance of fungal microcolonies. Significance: Anidulafungin and caspofungin reduced but did not halt growth at the microcony level; additionally both drugs killed individual cells, particularly at concentrations around the MIC. Intact but not lysed cells showed rapid recovery when the drugs were removed. The classification of these drugs as either fungistatic or fungicidal is simplistic. Microcolon

Dynamics and transport near quantum-critical points

The physics of non-zero temperature dynamics and transport near quantum-critical points is discussed by a detailed study of the O(N)-symmetric, relativistic, quantum field theory of a N-component scalar field in $d$ spatial dimensions. A great deal of insight is gained from a simple, exact solution of the long-time dynamics for the N=1 d=1 case: this model describes the critical point of the Ising chain in a transverse field, and the dynamics in all the distinct, limiting, physical regions of its finite temperature phase diagram is obtained. The N=3, d=1 model describes insulating, gapped, spin chain compounds: the exact, low temperature value of the spin diffusivity is computed, and compared with NMR experiments. The N=3, d=2,3 models describe Heisenberg antiferromagnets with collinear N\'{e}el correlations, and experimental realizations of quantum-critical behavior in these systems are discussed. Finally, the N=2, d=2 model describes the superfluid-insulator transition in lattice boson systems: the frequency and temperature dependence of the the conductivity at the quantum-critical coupling is described and implications for experiments in two-dimensional thin films and inversion layers are noted.Comment: Lectures presented at the NATO Advanced Study Institute on "Dynamical properties of unconventional magnetic systems", Geilo, Norway, April 2-12, 1997, edited by A. Skjeltorp and D. Sherrington, Kluwer Academic, to be published. 46 page

Comparison of the 2019 European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology/American College of Rheumatology Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Classification Criteria With Two Sets of Earlier Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Classification Criteria

Objective: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) 2012 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) classification criteria and the revised American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 1997 criteria are list based, counting each SLE manifestation equally. We derived a classification rule based on giving variable weights to the SLICC criteria and compared its performance to the revised ACR 1997, the unweighted SLICC 2012, and the newly reported European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR)/ACR 2019 criteria sets. Methods: The physician-rated patient scenarios used to develop the SLICC 2012 classification criteria were reemployed to devise a new weighted classification rule using multiple linear regression. The performance of the rule was evaluated on an independent set of expert-diagnosed patient scenarios and compared to the performance of the previously reported classification rules. Results: The weighted SLICC criteria and the EULAR/ACR 2019 criteria had less sensitivity but better specificity compared to the list-based revised ACR 1997 and SLICC 2012 classification criteria. There were no statistically significant differences between any pair of rules with respect to overall agreement with the physician diagnosis. Conclusion: The 2 new weighted classification rules did not perform better than the existing list-based rules in terms of overall agreement on a data set originally generated to assess the SLICC criteria. Given the added complexity of summing weights, researchers may prefer the unweighted SLICC criteria. However, the performance of a classification rule will always depend on the populations from which the cases and non-cases are derived and whether the goal is to prioritize sensitivity or specificity

A new implicit review instrument for measuring quality of care delivered to pediatric patients in the emergency department

BackgroundThere are few outcomes experienced by children receiving care in the Emergency Department (ED) that are amenable to measuring for the purposes of assessing of quality of care. The purpose of this study was to develop, test, and validate a new implicit review instrument that measures quality of care delivered to children in EDs.MethodsWe developed a 7-point structured implicit review instrument that encompasses four aspects of care, including the physician's initial data gathering, integration of information and development of appropriate diagnoses; initial treatment plan and orders; and plan for disposition and follow-up. Two pediatric emergency medicine physicians applied the 5-item instrument to children presenting in the highest triage category to four rural EDs, and we assessed the reliability of the average summary scores (possible range of 5-35) across the two reviewers using standard measures. We also validated the instrument by comparing this mean summary score between those with and without medication errors (ascertained independently by two pharmacists) using a two-sample t-test.ResultsWe reviewed the medical records of 178 pediatric patients for the study. The mean and median summary score for this cohort of patients were 27.4 and 28.5, respectively. Internal consistency was high (Cronbach's alpha of 0.92 and 0.89). All items showed a significant (p < 0.005) positive correlation between reviewers using the Spearman rank correlation (range 0.24 to 0.39). Exact agreement on individual items between reviewers ranged from 70.2% to 85.4%. The Intra-class Correlation Coefficient for the mean of the total summary score across the two reviewers was 0.65. The validity of the instrument was supported by the finding of a higher score for children without medication errors compared to those with medication errors which trended toward significance (mean score = 28.5 vs. 26.0, p = 0.076).ConclusionThe instrument we developed to measure quality of care provided to children in the ED has high internal consistency, fair to good inter-rater reliability and inter-rater correlation, and high content validity. The validity of the instrument is supported by the fact that the instrument's average summary score was lower in the presence of medication errors, which trended towards statistical significance