Accelerated Particle Swarm Optimization and Support Vector Machine for Business Optimization and Applications

Business optimization is becoming increasingly important because all business activities aim to maximize the profit and performance of products and services, under limited resources and appropriate constraints. Recent developments in support vector machine and metaheuristics show many advantages of these techniques. In particular, particle swarm optimization is now widely used in solving tough optimization problems. In this paper, we use a combination of a recently developed Accelerated PSO and a nonlinear support vector machine to form a framework for solving business optimization problems. We first apply the proposed APSO-SVM to production optimization, and then use it for income prediction and project scheduling. We also carry out some parametric studies and discuss the advantages of the proposed metaheuristic SVM.Comment: 12 page

Anisotropy at the end of the cosmic ray spectrum?

The starburst galaxies M82 and NGC253 have been proposed as the primary sources of cosmic rays with energies above $10^{18.7}$ eV. For energies \agt 10^{20.3} eV the model predicts strong anisotropies. We calculate the probabilities that the latter can be due to chance occurrence. For the highest energy cosmic ray events in this energy region, we find that the observed directionality has less than 1% probability of occurring due to random fluctuations. Moreover, during the first 5 years of operation at Auger, the observation of even half the predicted anisotropy has a probability of less than $10^{-5}$ to occur by chance fluctuation. Thus, this model can be subject to test at very small cost to the Auger priors budget and, whatever the outcome of that test, valuable information on the Galactic magnetic field will be obtained.Comment: Final version to be published in Physical Review

Non-Equilibrium Statistical Physics of Currents in Queuing Networks

We consider a stable open queuing network as a steady non-equilibrium system of interacting particles. The network is completely specified by its underlying graphical structure, type of interaction at each node, and the Markovian transition rates between nodes. For such systems, we ask the question ``What is the most likely way for large currents to accumulate over time in a network ?'', where time is large compared to the system correlation time scale. We identify two interesting regimes. In the first regime, in which the accumulation of currents over time exceeds the expected value by a small to moderate amount (moderate large deviation), we find that the large-deviation distribution of currents is universal (independent of the interaction details), and there is no long-time and averaged over time accumulation of particles (condensation) at any nodes. In the second regime, in which the accumulation of currents over time exceeds the expected value by a large amount (severe large deviation), we find that the large-deviation current distribution is sensitive to interaction details, and there is a long-time accumulation of particles (condensation) at some nodes. The transition between the two regimes can be described as a dynamical second order phase transition. We illustrate these ideas using the simple, yet non-trivial, example of a single node with feedback.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figure

Self-help interventions for anxiety disorders: An overview.

Anxiety disorders are highly prevalent and are associated with a marked impairment in quality of life and a huge economic cost to society. Unfortunately, a considerable number of people who struggle with anxiety do not seek or receive adequate treatment. Self-help interventions have been proposed to constitute a relatively cheap, effective, efficient, and low-threshold intervention for anxiety disorders. This paper offers a critical discussion of their advantages and disadvantages and the evidence for their effectiveness. We conclude that guided self-help can play a major role in mental health care for patients with anxiety disorders. However, several research questions need to be answered before broad-scale dissemination is possible. The Internet will continue to play a prominent role in the further development of this field of research and clinical practice

High Order Multistep Methods with Improved Phase-Lag Characteristics for the Integration of the Schr\"odinger Equation

In this work we introduce a new family of twelve-step linear multistep methods for the integration of the Schr\"odinger equation. The new methods are constructed by adopting a new methodology which improves the phase lag characteristics by vanishing both the phase lag function and its first derivatives at a specific frequency. This results in decreasing the sensitivity of the integration method on the estimated frequency of the problem. The efficiency of the new family of methods is proved via error analysis and numerical applications.Comment: 36 pages, 6 figure

Relationship between physical attributes, clay fraction mineralogy and aluminum forms in soil

O alumínio (Al) é um dos elementos mais abundantes em massa nos solos brasileiros, estando presente em diferentes minerais e formas. Considerando a carência de informações sobre a sua participação no comportamento físico do solo, buscou-se, no presente estudo, avaliar a relação entre a mineralogia da fração argila, formas de Al e atributos físicos de diferentes solos. Para tanto, foram coletadas amostras deformadas e indeformadas dos horizontes A e B de solos representativos das Zonas Fisiográficas Sul e Campos das Vertentes do estado de Minas Gerais. As amostras foram submetidas às caracterizações física, química e mineralógica. Estudos de correlação mostraram que os atributos físicos dos solos estudados estavam associados às diferentes formas de Al presentes e à mineralogia da fração argila: as formas de Al amorfas e menos cristalinas associaram-se mais aos atributos físicos relacionados com a agregação das partículas do solo, podendo esta associação ser atribuída à afinidade deste elemento com a matéria orgânica, enquanto os componentes cristalinos associaram-se mais aos atributos físicos relacionados com a organização estrutural dos solos._________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT: Aluminum (Al) is one of the most abundant elements in weight in Brazilian soils, found in different minerals and forms. Considering the lack of information about its participation in the physical behavior of soil, the present study aimed to evaluate the relationship between the mineralogy of the clay fraction, different forms of Al and physical attributes of different soils. Disturbed and undisturbed samples of A and B horizons of representative soils from the South and Campos das Vertentes physiographic regions in the State of Minas Gerais were therefore collected. The samples were subjected to physical, chemical and mineralogical characterizations. Correlation studies performed with the resulting data from the different characterizations showed that the physical attributes of the different studied soils are associated to the different forms of Al and to the mineralogy of the clay fraction: the amorphous and less crystalline forms of Al were more associated to physical attributes related with particle aggregation, such association being ascribed to the affinity of this element with organic matter, while the crystalline components were more associated to physical attributes related with the structural organization of the soils

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9–3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4–3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78–0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1–1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation