A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

A meta-analysis of the relationship between brain dopamine receptors and obesity: a matter of changes in behavior rather than food addiction?

Addiction to a wide range of substances of abuse has been suggested to reflect a ‘Reward Deficiency Syndrome'. That is, drugs are said to stimulate the reward mechanisms so intensely that, to compensate, the population of dopamine D(2) receptors (DD2R) declines. The result is that an increased intake is necessary to experience the same degree of reward. Without an additional intake, cravings and withdrawal symptoms result. A suggestion is that food addiction, in a similar manner to drugs of abuse, decrease DD2R. The role of DD2R in obesity was therefore examined by examining the association between body mass index (BMI) and the Taq1A polymorphism, as the A1 allele is associated with a 30–40% lower number of DD2R, and is a risk factor for drug addiction. If a lower density of DD2R is indicative of physical addiction, it was argued that if food addiction occurs, those with the A1 allele should have a higher BMI. A systematic review found 33 studies that compared the BMI of those who did and did not have the A1 allele. A meta-analysis of the studies compared those with (A1/A1 and A1/A2) or without (A2/A2) the A1 allele; no difference in BMI was found (standardized mean difference 0.004 (s.e. 0.021), variance 0.000, Z=0.196, P<0.845). It was concluded that there was no support for a reward deficiency theory of food addiction. In contrast, there are several reports that those with the A1 allele are less able to benefit from an intervention that aimed to reduce weight, possibly a reflection of increased impulsivity

Changes in habitat associations during range expansion: disentangling the effects of climate and residence time

The distributions of many species are not at equilibrium with their environment. This includes spreading non-native species and species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. The habitat associations of these species may change during range expansion as less favourable climatic conditions at expanding range margins may constrain species to use only the most favourable habitats, violating the species distribution model assumption of stationarity. Alternatively, changes in habitat associations could result from density-dependent habitat selection; at range margins, population densities are initially low so species can exhibit density-independent selection of the most favourable habitats, while in the range core, where population densities are higher, species spread into less favourable habitat. We investigate if the habitat preferences of the non-native common waxbill Estrilda astrild changed as they spread in three directions (north, east and south-east) in the Iberian Peninsula. There are different degrees of climatic suitability and colonization speed across range expansion axes, allowing us to separate the effects of climate from residence time. In contrast to previous studies we find a stronger effect of residence time than climate in influencing the prevalence of common waxbills. As well as a strong additive effect of residence time, there were some changes in habitat associations, which were consistent with density-dependent habitat selection. The combination of broader habitat associations and higher prevalence in areas that have been colonised for longer means that species distribution models constructed early in the invasion process are likely to underestimate species’ potential distribution

A method for the isolation of human gastric mucous epithelial cells for primary cell culture: A comparison of biopsy vs surgical tissue

We have developed a method for the isolation and growth of normal human gastric mucous epithelial cells using biopsies or surgically resected tissues as the source of the cells. The attachment and growth of cells were dependent upon: (1) cell planting density, ∼50,000 cells/cm 2 ; (2) extracellular matrix (fibronectin); and (3) and the use of a porous filter. In all experiments we found better cells attachment and growth of human gastric mucous cells isolated from surgical specimens compared with those gastric mucous cells isolated from gastric biopsies. The initial cell viability (as measured by Trypan-blue) was the same in both populations of gastric mucous epithelial cells isolated from either gastric biopsies or surgical specimens. After 4–5 days in culture one could detect various amounts of mucin in all the cells using either periodic acid Schiff (PAS) staining or a specific anti-mucin antibody. A similar pattern of much straining was also found in primary cultures of guinea pig gastric mucous epithelial cells. Immunohistochemical staining for chief cells (anti-pepsinogen) or parietal cells (anti-H + /K + ATPasc) in the gastric mucous cuboidal-like epithelial cells with tight junctions, desmosomes,short microvilli, a filamentous terminal web, mucous granules, and basal lamina-like structure. We could not detect the presence of fibroblasts during the 7–9 days that the primary cells were in culture. This cell culture method will prove useful in the isolation of normal human gastric mucous epithelial cells for in vitro studies of gastric mucosal injury and repair.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43235/1/11022_2004_Article_BF00127904.pd

Respiratory response of the deep-sea amphipod Stephonyx biscayensis indicates bathymetric range limitation by temperature and hydrostatic pressure

Depth zonation of fauna on continental margins is well documented. Whilst increasing hydrostatic pressure with depth has long been considered a factor contributing significantly to this pattern, discussion of the relative significance of decreasing temperature with depth has continued. This study investigates the physiological tolerances of fed and starved specimens of the bathyal lysianassoid amphipod Stephonyx biscayensis at varying temperature to acute pressure exposure by measuring the rate of oxygen consumption. Acclimation to atmospheric pressure is shown to have no significant interaction with temperature and/or pressure effects. Similarly, starvation is shown to have no significant effect on the interaction of temperature and pressure. Subsequently, the effect of pressure on respiration rate is revealed to be dependent on temperature: pressure equivalent to 2000 m depth was tolerated at 1 and 3°C; pressure equivalent to 2500 m depth was tolerated at 5.5°C; at 10°C pressure equivalent to 3000 m depth was tolerated. The variation in tolerance is consistent with the natural distribution range reported for this species. There are clear implications for hypotheses relating to the observed phenomenon of a biodiversity bottleneck between 2000 and 3000 metres, and for the potential for bathymetric range shifts in response to global climate change